April 2024

[Will - Rutgers]

nicest day of the year for some work outside

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, qg_omega said:

We are above normal for the month

Mostly driven by the warm minimums due to all the clouds, showers, and onshore flow keeping the high temperatures in check. The average high temperature  is nearly 10° colder than last April. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Max Temperature Apr 1 to Apr 19	Missing Count
1	2023-04-19	70.6	0
2	2010-04-19	69.7	0
3	2002-04-19	69.1	0
4	1945-04-19	67.5	0
5	2012-04-19	67.0	0
6	1981-04-19	66.7	0
7	1941-04-19	66.2	0
8	2006-04-19	65.9	0
9	1968-04-19	65.5	0
10	2017-04-19	65.4	0
11	1976-04-19	65.0	0
12	1994-04-19	64.6	0
13	1955-04-19	64.3	0
14	1959-04-19	64.2	0
15	1991-04-19	63.8	0
16	2019-04-19	63.6	0
-	2005-04-19	63.6	0
17	1969-04-19	63.4	0
18	2015-04-19	62.9	0
-	1999-04-19	62.9	0
19	1974-04-19	62.8	0
20	1963-04-19	62.7	0
21	2014-04-19	62.5	0
-	1977-04-19	62.5	0
22	1985-04-19	62.4	0
23	2013-04-19	62.3	0
24	2008-04-19	61.9	0
25	1998-04-19	61.6	0
26	2024-04-19	61.5	0

[donsutherland1]

Sunshine returned this afternoon boosting regional temperatures into the 60s. Some locations, including New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia reached 70° or above.

Cooler air is now overspreading the region on a gusty breeze. Generally cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through most of next week. However, the cold won't be exceptional.

It could turn warmer as April concludes with May starting with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was +5.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.246 today.

On April 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.520 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.553 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.1° (1.4° above normal).

 

[gravitylover]

Temp is down, wind is up (significantly) and the last of the clouds are racing off to my east. Looks like it's setting up to be a chilly night. Nice.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Sunshine returned this afternoon boosting regional temperatures into the 60s. Some locations, including New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia reached 70° or above.

Cooler air is now overspreading the region on a gusty breeze. Generally cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through most of next week. However, the cold won't be exceptional.

It could turn warmer as April concludes with May starting with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was +5.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.246 today.

On April 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.520 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.553 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.1° (1.4° above normal).

 

Why is it our local broadcasters almost uniformly underforecast the temperatures, Don? I even heard them say "no 70s for the next 7 days" and they busted badly on the first day of that forecast!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Temp is down, wind is up (significantly) and the last of the clouds are racing off to my east. Looks like it's setting up to be a chilly night. Nice.

It was really nice until that wind brought back my allergies.  All the clear blue skies from this afternoon made this morning's heavy rain a distant memory and then I saw a few puffy cumulus give us a pink sunset.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Sunshine returned this afternoon boosting regional temperatures into the 60s. Some locations, including New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia reached 70° or above.

Cooler air is now overspreading the region on a gusty breeze. Generally cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through most of next week. However, the cold won't be exceptional.

It could turn warmer as April concludes with May starting with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was +5.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.246 today.

On April 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.520 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.553 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.1° (1.4° above normal).

 

Think we'll likely hit 90 at least once in May, Don?

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Mostly driven by the warm minimums due to all the clouds, showers, and onshore flow keeping the high temperatures in check. The average high temperature  is nearly 10° colder than last April. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Max Temperature Apr 1 to Apr 19	Missing Count
1	2023-04-19	70.6	0
2	2010-04-19	69.7	0
3	2002-04-19	69.1	0
4	1945-04-19	67.5	0
5	2012-04-19	67.0	0
6	1981-04-19	66.7	0
7	1941-04-19	66.2	0
8	2006-04-19	65.9	0
9	1968-04-19	65.5	0
10	2017-04-19	65.4	0
11	1976-04-19	65.0	0
12	1994-04-19	64.6	0
13	1955-04-19	64.3	0
14	1959-04-19	64.2	0
15	1991-04-19	63.8	0
16	2019-04-19	63.6	0
-	2005-04-19	63.6	0
17	1969-04-19	63.4	0
18	2015-04-19	62.9	0
-	1999-04-19	62.9	0
19	1974-04-19	62.8	0
20	1963-04-19	62.7	0
21	2014-04-19	62.5	0
-	1977-04-19	62.5	0
22	1985-04-19	62.4	0
23	2013-04-19	62.3	0
24	2008-04-19	61.9	0
25	1998-04-19	61.6	0
26	2024-04-19	61.5	0

The last two springs have been very nice, dry and warm and last April we hit the 90s two days in a row.

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Why is it our local broadcasters almost uniformly underforecast the temperatures, Don? I even heard them say "no 70s for the next 7 days" and they busted badly on the first day of that forecast!

 

The temperature did overperform today. At NYC, it was 2 sigma above the forecast high. However, it does seem that busts more often than not occur when temperatures are higher than forecast. It's tough to know whether on a day-to-day basis, the warming climate is playing a role. But on a weekly or longer scale, the warming climate has contributed to outcomes winding up generally above the modeled forecasts.

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Think we'll likely hit 90 at least once in May, Don?

My guess is that we'll see the temperature reach 90 or above at least once during May.

[Rtd208]

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/saharan-air-layer-tropical-cyclone-impact

[nycwinter]

very gusty wind going to be a very chilly night.

[gravitylover]

39° feels downright cold. Nice but cold. Good thing there's no wind.

[ForestHillWx]

Temp inversion in this area, multiple readings from the weather stations in the lower lying areas at 30/31; up on top of the hill it’s 35. 

[SnoSki14]

36F this morning, chilly but we still get 30s into May some days. 

[lee59]

Got down to the mid 30s here last night. Now 40.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The last two springs have been very nice, dry and warm and last April we hit the 90s two days in a row.

Models back to a stronger cold front this week with a piece of the TPV heading for Maine. So interior sections need to watch for a hard freeze. NYC may dip below 40° which will feel very chilly for late April. The low pressure will become the new 50/50 low which has been so persistent since late March. So more continuing backdoor potential.
 

 

[uofmiami]

33 in Muttontown & 35 in Syosset this morning. 

[bkviking]

35° low here in Smithtown. 

[SACRUS]

 

73 to 35 last night now a cool and p sunny 47.   Clouds about to reclaim their space but it should remain dry in the mid-upper 50s.    Cooler than normal but a mostly dry week Mon - Fri with some showers wed and the 48 hour Chill Wed- Fri, some 30s and freeze inland. The ridging and warmth comes east by next weekend but it looks to be accompanied by clouds and rain - should it trend drier next shot at 70/80s in a week 4/28 - 4/30 before the onshore flow is forecasts back to open next month. 

Overall cooler 4/21-4/26 before a warmer-much warmer but perhaps wetter 4/27 - 430.    Sustained ridging and warmth continues to wait for the onshore/cloudier flow to move out.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (1957)
NYC: 87 (1923)
LGA: 86 (1957)
JFK: 78 (2007)


Lows:

EWR: 31 (1981)
NYC: 26 (1875)
LGA: 33 (1956)
JFK: 36 (1981)

 

Historical:

 

1885: A tornado struck the town of Denison, Texas in 1883 that destroyed a church. The congregation rebuilt the church. On this date, a second tornado destroyed the newly rebuilt church.

1958 - Portions of Montana were in the midst of a spring snowburst. Snowfall amounts ranged up to 55 inches at Red Lodge, 61 inches at Nye Mine, and 72 inches at Mystic Lake. (David Ludlum)

1967 - Severe thunderstorms spawned 48 tornadoes in the Upper Midwest. Hardest hit was northern Illinois where sixteen tornadoes touched down during the afternoon and evening hours causing fifty million dollars damage. On that Friday afternoon tornadoes struck Belvidere IL, and the Chicago suburb of Oak Lawn, killing 57 persons. (David Ludlum)

1980 - The temperature at International Falls MN hit 90 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed from the Gulf of Mexico to New England and the Great Lakes Region, with twenty-nine cities reporting record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 82 degrees at Caribou ME, 94 degrees at Mobile AL, 95 degrees at Monroe LA, and 93 degrees at New Orleans LA, were records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - After having had just twelve rainouts in the previous twenty-six years at Dodger Stadium, a third day of heavy rain in southern California rained out a double-header at Dodger Stadium which had been scheduled due to rainouts the previous two days. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - The temperature at Las Animas, CO, soared to 100 degrees to establish a state record for April. Twenty-two cities in the central and southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Eight cities equalled or exceeded previous April records. (The Weather Channel) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail in Oklahoma, and also caused some flash flooding in the state. Thunderstorms over the Southern High Plains produced golf ball size hail at Roswell NM and El Paso TX. Easterly winds and temperatures near zero produced wind chill readings as cold as 50 degrees below zero for the spring festival (Piuraagiaqta) outdoor events at Barrow AK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2007 - The South Plains and Panhandle of West Texas were hit by an outbreak of severe thunderstorms. Between the hours of 5 and 6 pm, several thunderstorms developed across the western South Plains. Around 7 pm, a supercell produced a tornado which touched down around Fieldton (southwest of Olton) and then moved just south and east of Olton, doing damage to several structures and equipment. The thunderstorm continued to move northeast across northeast Lamb, northwest Hale, southeast Castro and southwest Swisher Counties, producing a long-lived tornado (along with hail up to the size of tennis balls). By 7:45 pm, the storm approached the town of Tulia in Swisher County. A tornado touchdown was reported in the town, causing major damage. The tornadic thunderstorm continued to move northeast across Swisher County over open country through about 8:30 pm. (NWS Lubbock, TX)
 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Daylight:   13H:34M  Roughly equivalent to Aug 21

[MJO812]

45 right now

 

[TheClimateChanger]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Why is it our local broadcasters almost uniformly underforecast the temperatures, Don? I even heard them say "no 70s for the next 7 days" and they busted badly on the first day of that forecast!

 

Have to tack on 3-5 degrees on sunny to partly sunny days in early spring to account for lack of vegetation IMO.

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (1957)
NYC: 87 (1923)
LGA: 86 (1957)
JFK: 78 (2007)


Lows:

EWR: 31 (1981)
NYC: 26 (1875)
LGA: 33 (1956)
JFK: 36 (1981)

 

Historical:

 

1885: A tornado struck the town of Denison, Texas in 1883 that destroyed a church. The congregation rebuilt the church. On this date, a second tornado destroyed the newly rebuilt church.

1958 - Portions of Montana were in the midst of a spring snowburst. Snowfall amounts ranged up to 55 inches at Red Lodge, 61 inches at Nye Mine, and 72 inches at Mystic Lake. (David Ludlum)

1967 - Severe thunderstorms spawned 48 tornadoes in the Upper Midwest. Hardest hit was northern Illinois where sixteen tornadoes touched down during the afternoon and evening hours causing fifty million dollars damage. On that Friday afternoon tornadoes struck Belvidere IL, and the Chicago suburb of Oak Lawn, killing 57 persons. (David Ludlum)

1980 - The temperature at International Falls MN hit 90 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed from the Gulf of Mexico to New England and the Great Lakes Region, with twenty-nine cities reporting record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 82 degrees at Caribou ME, 94 degrees at Mobile AL, 95 degrees at Monroe LA, and 93 degrees at New Orleans LA, were records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - After having had just twelve rainouts in the previous twenty-six years at Dodger Stadium, a third day of heavy rain in southern California rained out a double-header at Dodger Stadium which had been scheduled due to rainouts the previous two days. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - The temperature at Las Animas, CO, soared to 100 degrees to establish a state record for April. Twenty-two cities in the central and southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Eight cities equalled or exceeded previous April records. (The Weather Channel) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail in Oklahoma, and also caused some flash flooding in the state. Thunderstorms over the Southern High Plains produced golf ball size hail at Roswell NM and El Paso TX. Easterly winds and temperatures near zero produced wind chill readings as cold as 50 degrees below zero for the spring festival (Piuraagiaqta) outdoor events at Barrow AK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2007 - The South Plains and Panhandle of West Texas were hit by an outbreak of severe thunderstorms. Between the hours of 5 and 6 pm, several thunderstorms developed across the western South Plains. Around 7 pm, a supercell produced a tornado which touched down around Fieldton (southwest of Olton) and then moved just south and east of Olton, doing damage to several structures and equipment. The thunderstorm continued to move northeast across northeast Lamb, northwest Hale, southeast Castro and southwest Swisher Counties, producing a long-lived tornado (along with hail up to the size of tennis balls). By 7:45 pm, the storm approached the town of Tulia in Swisher County. A tornado touchdown was reported in the town, causing major damage. The tornadic thunderstorm continued to move northeast across Swisher County over open country through about 8:30 pm. (NWS Lubbock, TX)
 

wow it was so cold in the early 80s, even this late in the season

below freezing on this date in 1981!

April blizzard in 1982 and another snowstorm a week later!

April snowstorm in 1983 on 4/20!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Models back to a stronger cold front this week with a piece of the TPV heading for Maine. So interior sections need to watch for a hard freeze. NYC may dip below 40° which will feel very chilly for late April. The low pressure will become the new 50/50 low which has been so persistent since late March. So more continuing backdoor potential.
 

 

are we returning to early 80s type weather in spring lol?

It was below freezing on this date in 1981 and of course we know what happened in 1982 and 1983 also had a late April snowstorm on the 20th.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

36F this morning, chilly but we still get 30s into May some days. 

2020 was the rare outlier, I can't remember the last time before that NYC got into the 30s (actually I do-- I think it was May 1992 when we were in the upper 30s-- that was the "Pinatubo summer"-- I think before that the last time we were in the 30s in May was in 1977, when we had snow, just like what happened in May 2020.)

So 30s in May is basically a once in 2-3 decade event.

To my knowledge it has never hit freezing or below later than 4/20 (which happened in 1983 when we had snow that actually stuck.)

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, gravitylover said:

39° feels downright cold. Nice but cold. Good thing there's no wind.

Yes  so no allergies for me last night!

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Daylight:   13H:34M  Roughly equivalent to Aug 21

A little less than 2 hours to go until we reach maximum daylight in about 2 months.

Time seemingly moving so fast.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

A little less than 2 hours to go until we reach maximum daylight in about 2 months.

Time seemingly moving so fast.

The months are flying by

It's already the end of April