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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Canada cooled down real quick lol. 

Listen anytime you see the EPO drop below -4/5 you dislodge the natural Arctic Air and if you increase confluence near Greenland you are going to drive that air right over us. The absolute reason I went colder second half March. People look at Canada and say oh its plus 4c its roasting. +4c near the Arctic is still below zero lol. Anyways we missed our shot maybe next year or maybe April fools lol think not

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Listen anytime you see the EPO drop below -4/5 you dislodge the natural Arctic Air and if you increase confluence near Greenland you are going to drive that air right over us. The absolute reason I went colder second half March. People look at Canada and say oh its plus 4c its roasting. +4c near the Arctic is still below zero lol. Anyways we missed our shot maybe next year or maybe April fools lol think not

It’s right there for the tapping and yet we rain. 

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24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Listen anytime you see the EPO drop below -4/5 you dislodge the natural Arctic Air and if you increase confluence near Greenland you are going to drive that air right over us. The absolute reason I went colder second half March. People look at Canada and say oh its plus 4c its roasting. +4c near the Arctic is still below zero lol. Anyways we missed our shot maybe next year or maybe April fools lol think not

For sure.  
 

And the Pretty orange colors fool some too… 

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50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jesus look at those temps in Canada near the lakes this morning.  -30s . So much for no cold in Canada. Also too bad @OceanStWxGYX doesn't do upper air soundings anymore as its near record territory for late March

index (12).png

Screenshot_20240321_125548_Chrome.jpg

What?

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Mmm  Steve's right.  

Adding to that ... the EPO drum began to beat in the telecon projections for the 15th - 25th since really the 'coherence range' first came over the temporal horizon ...circa late February. At that time, the outer edge of extended range tipped the index into a dive entering week 3.  

It never backed off ... In fact, the projections kept lowering the SD nadir further, and also extended the length, all the while people were bickering about how much this year is comparable to 2012 ( why doing so in the first place struck me as just needing something to argue about as a recreational activity..  ultimately, meaningless). 

I realize the antecedent winter has driven folks probably to being jaded beyond the capacity for objective consideration... but too bad.   Considering there have been milk shake blizzards in the first weeks of April -

Anyway, enjoy abeyance of spring.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jesus look at those temps in Canada near the lakes this morning.  -30s . So much for no cold in Canada. Also too bad @OceanStWxGYX doesn't do upper air soundings anymore as its near record territory for late March

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We don't? News to me. ;)

We ran out of helium a couple of weeks ago, but we launching again now. Pretty soon we'll be able to turn the hydrogen generator back on too.

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12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I don’t think anyone S of NH is seeing accumulating snow. 

Yeah by 12z Sat the 850 0C line is along the MA VT/NH borders on the euro. Maybe some brief snow to start, but it'll be pelting pretty fast. 

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15 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Yeah by 12z Sat the 850 0C line is along the MA VT/NH borders on the euro. Maybe some brief snow to start, but it'll be pelting pretty fast. 

I'm on the fence with this... 

up through about Feb 20 give or take, it's an easy assumption this is busting too warm in the BL, in the guidance across the board, given to what is advecting into the region out ahead of arrival.  

I don't know about March 20th tho.

In the end I'm inclined to think guidance isn't fully resolving the BL when it is this cold.  The low riding up the front passes SE of ORH - an ageostrophic trigger and the 925 mb layer typically gets under-assessed in these synoptic scenarios.

And I'm really more interested in this air mass' thermodynamic properties.  DPs are 9 to 17 throughout the area and there is no real modification means between now and Saturday. 

It's probably more about whether we end up with IP or icing in that transition region, as well as how long it lasts. 

 

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29 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Yeah by 12z Sat the 850 0C line is along the MA VT/NH borders on the euro. Maybe some brief snow to start, but it'll be pelting pretty fast. 

I’ll be watching the NAM runs tomorrow and if it’s charging 850 line north then chances are it’s correct.  I mean, Concord N is a different story.  

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