MidwestChaser Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Doom did the severe portion of LOT's latest AFD; everytime I see that name attached to something I can't help think of this: @RCNYILWX 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Locally, Feb 27th was the first day 1 SLGT for 2023. Not at all relevant, just found it somewhat interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 21 hours ago, nwohweather said: Lapse rates are no joke with this system. Some of the hail could be the largest we’ve seen in quite some time around here Looking back on observed soundings at what happened in Eastern TX a few weeks ago early morning of Feb 11, larger hail, especially in discrete supercells seems to really hinge on wet bulb zero height (WBZ) being in the sweet spot between 7500 - 10000 on soundings. From NWS Glossary: https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php * FZL, cold mid-level temps & steep LRs should be no problem this far north in this topic’s forum region or risk area. Especially being early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Is anyone planning on chasing? There is a cap bust risk with this kind of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Worried about a cap in February. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 13 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Worried about a cap in February. Its not like a summer-like cap bust. More just all the convection being north of the surface boundary, or moving north before it has a chance to produce. These things are always so fickle this far north with the moisture strung out. The CAPE is wild for February though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Our Cleveland mets forecast seem off this morning. They showed the potential for heavy storms/precipitation around this time and it's quiet as a mouse on the entire radar of the whole state of Ohio. My guess is that this event is much further south and not as significant as expected. The severe weather folks on Twitter were going crazy and I thought it was a bit too much hype. The forecast models simulated radar showed what is currently near Evansville would be 10x worse and over Mansfield at this time. I don't know what implications this may have on the forecast the next 24 hrs for Northern or Central Ohio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 6 hours ago, frostfern said: Is anyone planning on chasing? There is a cap bust risk with this kind of setup. Reed Timmer is bring the Dominator 3 to chase. Every time he has come to Northern Indiana, we bust hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 riding it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: riding it Knocking out three airports in one shot. RIP ORD wx office 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Yeah, that's a spicy run. If that stays consistent this morning, chase is a go.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Suns coming out here which wasn't supposed to happen til like 3 PM today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Still haven't grown my balls back since my "incident" but might not have to do a lot of chasing if shit develops practically overhead. That said, I swore to myself after my last excursion that I wouldn't pursue anything ever again in non-rural conditions so we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 20 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Still haven't grown my balls back since my "incident" but might not have to do a lot of chasing if shit develops practically overhead. That said, I swore to myself after my last excursion that I wouldn't pursue anything ever again in non-rural conditions so we'll see. Did you try some fertilizer? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Just now, SolidIcewx said: Did you try some fertilizer? They said a transplant is likely necessary. If you know any willing donors please put me on with em 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Was looking like a bust 12 hours ago, but this mornings runs and full sunshine here are telling otherwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 7 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Was looking like a bust 12 hours ago, but this mornings runs and full sunshine here are telling otherwise. Started out with a full deck of low and extremely quick moving clouds but we're almost fully sunny now here too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 A bit concerned about mixing issues with the full sunshine, SPC notes the same in their outlook especially WRT potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 55 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Still haven't grown my balls back since my "incident" but might not have to do a lot of chasing if shit develops practically overhead. That said, I swore to myself after my last excursion that I wouldn't pursue anything ever again in non-rural conditions so we'll see. holy shit i had completely forgotten 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 20 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Started out with a full deck of low and extremely quick moving clouds but we're almost fully sunny now here too Had the same issue with dense fog. Sitting at 57/56 at the moment. Will be interesting to see how much mixing we get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: riding it This is our moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 12 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: A bit concerned about mixing issues with the full sunshine, SPC notes the same in their outlook especially WRT potential. Can you explain this further? Only mixing I'm aware of is winter mixing. Severe novice here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 5 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Can you explain this further? Only mixing I'm aware of is winter mixing. Severe novice here. When you have a relatively shallow low-level moist layer (only up to about 850mb or a little above at best on a couple soundings I just cherry-picked off this morning's 12Z 3KM NAM), vertical mixing (helped along by sunshine) can bring down that drier air, lowering surface dewpoints, thus raising LCLs (cloud bases) and possibly increasing low-level capping. At least, that's how I understand it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: When you have a relatively shallow low-level moist layer (only up to about 850mb or a little above at best on a couple soundings I just cherry-picked off this morning's 12Z 3KM NAM), vertical mixing (helped along by sunshine) can bring down that drier air, lowering surface dewpoints, thus raising LCLs (cloud bases) and possibly increasing low-level capping. At least, that's how I understand it. That's so interesting. You could literally see how the clouds were rotating slightly and lifting upwards as they thinned out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXMan42711 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 short term guidance has been consistent with the idea of a few discrete cells firing off in S/SE IN after dark. concerning look, given the projected environment at the time and the fact it would be after dark. sun is trying to break thru here and its already 65 degrees, but some possible pop up showers may ultimately temper the threat down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Enhanced risk for hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 been a minute since i've seen some real stones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXMan42711 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 5 minutes ago, WXMan42711 said: short term guidance has been consistent with the idea of a few discrete cells firing off in S/SE IN after dark. concerning look, given the projected environment at the time and the fact it would be after dark. sun is trying to break thru here and its already 65 degrees, but some possible pop up showers may ultimately temper the threat down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 10% sig for tors and 30% sig for wind in Southern Indiana too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 28 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: When you have a relatively shallow low-level moist layer (only up to about 850mb or a little above at best on a couple soundings I just cherry-picked off this morning's 12Z 3KM NAM), vertical mixing (helped along by sunshine) can bring down that drier air, lowering surface dewpoints, thus raising LCLs (cloud bases) and possibly increasing low-level capping. At least, that's how I understand it. Thanks for the reply/info. I always thought sunshine early is good to help with instability and help with moisture and severe development but as always there's so much going on and things to look at and it only takes one component to mess it all up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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