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February 27-28 Severe Threat


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21 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Lapse rates are no joke with this system. Some of the hail could be the largest we’ve seen in quite some time around here

Looking back on observed soundings at what happened in Eastern TX a few weeks ago early morning of Feb 11, larger hail, especially in discrete supercells seems to really hinge on wet bulb zero height (WBZ) being in the sweet spot between 7500 - 10000 on soundings.

F6F11F92-E887-44DC-A48A-B0D83D9547B9.jpeg.a2d61fdd3725b726b83656078889e657.jpeg
From NWS Glossary: https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php


* FZL, cold mid-level temps & steep LRs should be no problem this far north in this topic’s forum region or risk area. Especially being early in the season.

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13 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Worried about a cap in February.

IMG_3020.gif

Its not like a summer-like cap bust.  More just all the convection being north of the surface boundary, or moving north before it has a chance to produce.  These things are always so fickle this far north with the moisture strung out.  The CAPE is wild for February though.

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Our Cleveland mets forecast seem off this morning. They showed the potential for heavy storms/precipitation around this time and it's quiet as a mouse on the entire radar of the whole state of Ohio.

My guess is that this event is much further south and not as significant as expected.

Snapshot-240227052727.png

The severe weather folks on Twitter were going crazy and I thought it was a bit too much hype. The forecast models simulated radar showed what is currently near Evansville would be 10x worse and over Mansfield at this time. I don't know what implications this may have on the forecast the next 24 hrs for Northern or Central Ohio.

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Still haven't grown my balls back since my "incident" but might not have to do a lot of chasing if shit develops practically overhead. That said, I swore to myself after my last excursion that I wouldn't pursue anything ever again in non-rural conditions so we'll see. 

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20 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Still haven't grown my balls back since my "incident" but might not have to do a lot of chasing if shit develops practically overhead. That said, I swore to myself after my last excursion that I wouldn't pursue anything ever again in non-rural conditions so we'll see. 

Did you try some fertilizer?

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7 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Was looking like a bust 12 hours ago, but this mornings runs and full sunshine here are telling otherwise. 

Started out with a full deck of low and extremely quick moving clouds but we're almost fully sunny now here too

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55 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Still haven't grown my balls back since my "incident" but might not have to do a lot of chasing if shit develops practically overhead. That said, I swore to myself after my last excursion that I wouldn't pursue anything ever again in non-rural conditions so we'll see. 

holy shit i had completely forgotten

 

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5 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Can you explain this further? Only mixing I'm aware of is winter mixing. Severe novice here.

When you have a relatively shallow low-level moist layer (only up to about 850mb or a little above at best on a couple soundings I just cherry-picked off this morning's 12Z 3KM NAM), vertical mixing (helped along by sunshine) can bring down that drier air, lowering surface dewpoints, thus raising LCLs (cloud bases) and possibly increasing low-level capping. At least, that's how I understand it.

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2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

When you have a relatively shallow low-level moist layer (only up to about 850mb or a little above at best on a couple soundings I just cherry-picked off this morning's 12Z 3KM NAM), vertical mixing (helped along by sunshine) can bring down that drier air, lowering surface dewpoints, thus raising LCLs (cloud bases) and possibly increasing low-level capping. At least, that's how I understand it.

That's so interesting. You could literally see how the clouds were rotating slightly and lifting upwards as they thinned out. 

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short term guidance has been consistent with the idea of a few discrete cells firing off in S/SE IN after dark. concerning look, given the projected environment at the time and the fact it would be after dark. sun is trying to break thru here and its already 65 degrees, but some possible pop up showers may ultimately temper the threat down here.

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5 minutes ago, WXMan42711 said:

short term guidance has been consistent with the idea of a few discrete cells firing off in S/SE IN after dark. concerning look, given the projected environment at the time and the fact it would be after dark. sun is trying to break thru here and its already 65 degrees, but some possible pop up showers may ultimately temper the threat down here.

spccoday1.tornado.latest.png?v=971

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28 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

When you have a relatively shallow low-level moist layer (only up to about 850mb or a little above at best on a couple soundings I just cherry-picked off this morning's 12Z 3KM NAM), vertical mixing (helped along by sunshine) can bring down that drier air, lowering surface dewpoints, thus raising LCLs (cloud bases) and possibly increasing low-level capping. At least, that's how I understand it.

Thanks for the reply/info. I always thought sunshine early is good to help with instability and help with moisture and severe development but as always there's so much going on and things to look at and it only takes one component to mess it all up.

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