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Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the rotation of the Earth has slowed a little.. we are seeing more High pressure systems. land vs water friction also seems to be a little greater (cold coming more from Canada vs 50/50 low cold).

You think?  You know we can measure this, right?

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2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the rotation of the Earth has slowed a little.. we are seeing more High pressure systems. land vs water friction also seems to be a little greater (cold coming more from Canada vs 50/50 low cold).

May lend to the Earth standing still. Hmm.. The day the Earth stood still. Never watched that Movie. 

      Just carrying on with you man :)

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

How does it rotate when it’s flat? 

Like a record.  Except the 300 ft ice wall in Antarctica that no one ever flys over. Because there’s continents on the other side.

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4 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I think Chuck might be referring to influences such as east Asian mountain torque on the earth's rotation. The hints in his post are mentions of friction and more high pressure. A +EAMT opposes the earth's rotation, and to conserve angular momentum there is an increase in westerly winds in the atmosphere(stronger jet stream). 

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14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the rotation of the Earth has slowed a little.. we are seeing more High pressure systems. land vs water friction also seems to be a little greater (cold coming more from Canada vs 50/50 low cold).

I think the tilt is off as well ;)

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

I think Chuck might be referring to influences such as east Asian mountain torque on the earth's rotation. The hints in his post are mentions of friction and more high pressure. A +EAMT opposes the earth's rotation, and to conserve angular momentum there is an increase in westerly winds in the atmosphere(stronger jet stream). 

That’s more plausible. Thanks for translating. 

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

I think Chuck might be referring to influences such as east Asian mountain torque on the earth's rotation. The hints in his post are mentions of friction and more high pressure. A +EAMT opposes the earth's rotation, and to conserve angular momentum there is an increase in westerly winds in the atmosphere(stronger jet stream). 

I know I take things literally but I was not being serious about the infinitesimally slow decrease in rotation rate causing climate impacts on a decadal scale.  I was just poking a bit of fun at those mocking Chuck.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Sometimes I get Chuck speak, other times not so much lol.

I guess it depends on which days. Sometimes what he says makes perfect sense and perfectly summarizes what was nagging in my mind and couldn’t put my finger on it. Other times, I’m like

IMG_6122.thumb.jpeg.e0519de6b08a422922d54f3219192cf5.jpeg

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FWIW guidance is still on pace for the longwave pattern to shift between March 10 to March 15.  The problem is the whole continent is torched and so it would take another week after that before lower level thermals are even remotely cold enough in the east and by then were getting into the timeframe that boundary temps along 95 are really a problem.  Places NW with elevation its still possible maybe March 20 on hey could sneak in something...I'm skeptical even there.  

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

FWIW guidance is still on pace for the longwave pattern to shift between March 10 to March 15.  The problem is the whole continent is torched and so it would take another week after that before lower level thermals are even remotely cold enough in the east and by then were getting into the timeframe that boundary temps along 95 are really a problem.  Places NW with elevation its still possible maybe March 20 on hey could sneak in something...I'm skeptical even there.  

At this point, I'm hoping this can prevent us from having disgusting weather in April and May.  If it can give us a cool spring, I'm all for it.  Anything to put off the oppressive heat and humidity....

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16 minutes ago, anotherman said:

At this point, I'm hoping this can prevent us from having disgusting weather in April and May.  If it can give us a cool spring, I'm all for it.  Anything to put off the oppressive heat and humidity....

I want a humid, sloppy spring and summer.  The theme of last year was dry/drought/wildfire smoke...I would prefer to not have a repeat of that.

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51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

FWIW guidance is still on pace for the longwave pattern to shift between March 10 to March 15.  The problem is the whole continent is torched and so it would take another week after that before lower level thermals are even remotely cold enough in the east and by then were getting into the timeframe that boundary temps along 95 are really a problem.  Places NW with elevation its still possible maybe March 20 on hey could sneak in something...I'm skeptical even there.  

As opposed to our boundary temps in January and February? :rolleyes:

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26 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

As opposed to our boundary temps in January and February? :rolleyes:

q0NXUrvVFG.png.7cabce79913d972a52629dc6f78a5541.png

This has been our reality for 9 years...

Here is the thing about that...yes the PDO is killing us, putting a perpetual ridge over the east...but look out west at our latitude...even with a crazy -PNA most of the time, they aren't cold either.  At our latitude the variance across the northern hemisphere the last 9 years has been crazy unprecedented torch to at best slightly above normal temps, which for us isn't even good enough since our lowest average high temp is still in the 40's.

 

I've witnessed this first hand...yea they have been "colder" and yes at times when a crazy trough sets up they do get cold for a bit...but I've been out west several times in the last 8 years and lower elevations were really really suffering in terms of snowfall with very warm temps between storms and during any modest ridging episodes.  Just a cautionary thing to keep in mind for when the PDO flips...it hasn't exactly been cold ANYWHERE at our latitude on the whole, no matter what the longwave pattern is.  This doesn't mean you can't get cold for a period, there are anomalies within that longer term avg...just saying...in general its just been warm everywhere at our latitude.  

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35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

q0NXUrvVFG.png.7cabce79913d972a52629dc6f78a5541.png

This has been our reality for 9 years...

Here is the thing about that...yes the PDO is killing us, putting a perpetual ridge over the east...but look out west at our latitude...even with a crazy -PNA most of the time, they aren't cold either.  At our latitude the variance across the northern hemisphere the last 9 years has been crazy unprecedented torch to at best slightly above normal temps, which for us isn't even good enough since our lowest average high temp is still in the 40's.

 

I've witnessed this first hand...yea they have been "colder" and yes at times when a crazy trough sets up they do get cold for a bit...but I've been out west several times in the last 8 years and lower elevations were really really suffering in terms of snowfall with very warm temps between storms and during any modest ridging episodes.  Just a cautionary thing to keep in mind for when the PDO flips...it hasn't exactly been cold ANYWHERE at our latitude on the whole, no matter what the longwave pattern is.  This doesn't mean you can't get cold for a period, there are anomalies within that longer term avg...just saying...in general its just been warm everywhere at our latitude.  

As you have mentioned many times it is likely that there are at least two additive factors at play in our recent snow woes

1. The perma-SER courtesy of the -----PDO

2. Pack puke episodes which are more frequent, stronger, and longer in duration due to pac warm pool/hadley cell expansion/Babar

The PDO flipping should hopefully help with factor 1 but I don't know of any reason why it would help with factor 2.  

So when the PDO flips it's a matter of do we get 80% back or 20% back (or whatever).  I think 100% is out of reach sadly.

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I've pointed this out before...

This first example its obvious why we are warm... This pacific configuration is a train wreck, we should be warm with this crap pacific longwave setup

Example1.thumb.png.124b7ce9f772f76a2bc70fc46bb2cbc4.png

But then look at this...its the complete opposite pacific longwave pattern, and we still have a massive full latitude eastern N American ridge

1879906879_Example2.thumb.png.dc744e1a2cd178b82501f73a41b4885b.png

I've shown this several times over the last few years...that at times it doesn't matter what the jet configuration is over the pacific it leads to the same pattern over the CONUS regardless.  Am I 100% sure the PDO is totally to blame for this...ehh.  I hope so.  

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