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The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm


DDweatherman
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9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

No more defenses about quality of NOAA maps

gfs_conus_025_snodpth_chng.gif

I'm just trying to teach what I have found are the best ways. 

Dude that depth map is way low. Places west got 8” where that says 3”. Places in PA are going to get 6-8” where that has 2-3”. 

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Hate to say it, but kudos to the HRRR/RAP combo for sniffing this out basically since 14z runs. They are going to hit the nail on the head for here and basically hit the northern band in PA, to a degree. 
 

Im not a HRRR disciple by any means, but it can be useful for trends in certain setups. It struggles with southern stream disturbances and does better with NS systems. I think convection within SS disturbances causes chaos in the model. Would be interesting to study. 
 

My forecast earlier was terrible and I really forced what I showed everyone here. I didn’t have a good mental day today, so seeing it snow nicely helped bring up my spirit. Depression sucks, that’s all I have to say. 
 

Have a good night everyone. Enjoy the snow, whatever falls. Truly a treat. 

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Hate to say it, but kudos to the HRRR/RAP combo for sniffing this out basically since 14z runs. They are going to hit the nail on the head for here and basically hit the northern band in PA, to a degree. 
 
Im not a HRRR disciple by any means, but it can be useful for trends in certain setups. It struggles with southern stream disturbances and does better with NS systems. I think convection within SS disturbances causes chaos in the model. Would be interesting to study. 
 
My forecast earlier was terrible and I really forced what I showed everyone here. I didn’t have a good mental day today, so seeing it snow nicely helped bring up my spirit. Depression sucks, that’s all I have to say. 
 
Have a good night everyone. Enjoy the snow, whatever falls. Truly a treat. 

Uh oh… time to go to bed?
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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hate to say it, but kudos to the HRRR/RAP combo for sniffing this out basically since 14z runs. They are going to hit the nail on the head for here and basically hit the northern band in PA, to a degree. 
 

Im not a HRRR disciple by any means, but it can be useful for trends in certain setups. It struggles with southern stream disturbances and does better with NS systems. I think convection within SS disturbances causes chaos in the model. Would be interesting to study. 
 

My forecast earlier was terrible and I really forced what I showed everyone here. I didn’t have a good mental day today, so seeing it snow nicely helped bring up my spirit. Depression sucks, that’s all I have to say. 
 

Have a good night everyone. Enjoy the snow, whatever falls. Truly a treat. 

If only we had a heart and hug emoji here…

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Rates here are good but not spectacular. Nowhere near enough to overcome the pavement. With the looks of things I think I'll be lucky to get 2", more likely about and inch and a half which will bust way lower than the 5-8 LWX has. Not a big deal but the speed of this and lower QPF ended up getting us here. Trends mean something and just like Monday, it's gonna bust low. 

On to the next, if there is one.

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