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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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Weird times. Last week was the best pattern in the last ten years on our doorstep. 3 discreet threats. Today, 19-20 and 23-25. Then the pattern got canceled. But there’s still a pretty decent chance some in the forum will end up going 3/3 with accumulating snow with all three threats. You’d think this board would be hopping with the potential. However, it’s about as as dead as it gets with most looking to the spring.


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11 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 Maybe this year is just a fluke as @Bob Chillbelieves.  That is entirely possible.  I respect him tremendously and frankly learned a lot from him, he was doing this with expertise before I knew what I was doing!  But I don't know.  I am just a little more pessimistic about how much of it is a "fluke" that's all.  

I don't think it's a fluke honestly. I think ninos can do this randomly in any year just as a Nina can behave very strangely some times too. If it was just our region having big issues this year I would think differently. This winter has not wanted to set up for snowfall in the east half of the country nearly start to finish. That's out of synch to me. It started weird too. The ski resorts in SW CO had an awful start to this year. I mean terrible.... in a Nino? That's quite rare (ive never seen it) but it's not temps there. The early season pattern was way out of synch for them too. 

I don't have a reasons thought through. Just observations. It's been an off Nino everywhere except for a mild winter. That's normal. 

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5 hours ago, MD Snow said:

Weird times. Last week was the best pattern in the last ten years on our doorstep. 3 discreet threats. Today, 19-20 and 23-25. Then the pattern got canceled. But there’s still a pretty decent chance some in the forum will end up going 3/3 with accumulating snow with all three threats. You’d think this board would be hopping with the potential. However, it’s about as as dead as it gets with most looking to the spring.


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We've learned our lesson. The new base state, Hadley influence and MJO implications of the Hadley influence is what has taught us to sharply temper our expectations. I no longer believe in snow shellackings for the DMV. Those days are permanently over. I do not believe that will ever happen again in our lifetimes, I turn my affections to places like Mammoth Lakes, Palisades Tahoe and Alta, Utah. Those places DO get truly life threatening amounts of snows and also can get blasted by hurricane force gusts! The Hadley, the new fiery base state, and MJO have absolutely NO bearing whatsoever on all of the incredible snows the mighty Sierra will get, especially when atmospheric rivers come to call. Those places average at least 400 inches a season, often much much more. The East Coast is DONE with big snows, except places like Maine and the NEK Regions. They can still get shellacked by snow. Washington should crave for 2-6 inches and start referring to those amounts as HECS, even low-end BECS. This is our new normal.

I still pull for the Mid Atlantic to get snow but today I am far more realistic. We won't get comma heads. We wont get shellacked. That's for places like Boston. We will get our 2-4 inch, maybe 6 inch amounts in the cities and DDweather, PSU and other places up in north central MD will see 8-16 inch amounts, because they have latitude, elevation and better luck than do places like Cleveland Park in NW DC. People like DD and PSU have a decent probability of getting shellacked with say 18 inches than the metroplexes ever will in 100-200 years given the new base state. Unless the AMOC stops. Then it's a whole new ballgame. Places like Allegheny Front will always get upslope snows. They are a special case even with the new base state.

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38 minutes ago, Jebman said:

We've learned our lesson. The new base state, Hadley influence and MJO implications of the Hadley influence is what has taught us to sharply temper our expectations. I no longer believe in snow shellackings for the DMV. Those days are permanently over. I do not believe that will ever happen again in our lifetimes, I turn my affections to places like Mammoth Lakes, Palisades Tahoe and Alta, Utah. Those places DO get truly life threatening amounts of snows and also can get blasted by hurricane force gusts! The Hadley, the new fiery base state, and MJO have absolutely NO bearing whatsoever on all of the incredible snows the mighty Sierra will get, especially when atmospheric rivers come to call. Those places average at least 400 inches a season, often much much more. The East Coast is DONE with big snows, except places like Maine and the NEK Regions. They can still get shellacked by snow. Washington should crave for 2-6 inches and start referring to those amounts as HECS, even low-end BECS. This is our new normal.

I still pull for the Mid Atlantic to get snow but today I am far more realistic. We won't get comma heads. We wont get shellacked. That's for places like Boston. We will get our 2-4 inch, maybe 6 inch amounts in the cities and DDweather, PSU and other places up in north central MD will see 8-16 inch amounts, because they have latitude, elevation and better luck than do places like Cleveland Park in NW DC. People like DD and PSU have a decent probability of getting shellacked with say 18 inches than the metroplexes ever will in 100-200 years given the new base state. Unless the AMOC stops. Then it's a whole new ballgame. Places like Allegheny Front will always get upslope snows. They are a special case even with the new base state.

OMG we lost Jebman!  You have been our forever optimist! 
 

I will continue to believe in shellacking for the MidAtlantic. If not this year, but one year we will get lucky. If not, I’ll retire in 5 years and move to PA. 

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10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Think there’s any chance SSW gives us some hope for Smarch?


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We’ve had 1 minor and (potentially) 2 major SSWs and they’ve all been weird with bottom-up and top-down connections. I said before this winter that I think people will write papers about this winter and I’m fully confident of that now.

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

We’ve had 1 minor and (potentially) 2 major SSWs and they’ve all been weird with bottom-up and top-down connections. I said before this winter that I think people will write papers about this winter and I’m fully confident of that now.

Y'all don't think that...it may have been the volcano? I mean I know some kinda laughed that off, but now I'm starting to wonder. I mean we'd never had that much water vapor, right? So we didn't know the effects...but because it looks so weird, now I'm wondering!

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Y'all don't think that...it may have been the volcano? I mean I know some kinda laughed that off, but now I'm starting to wonder. I mean we'd never had that much water vapor, right? So we didn't know the effects...but because it looks so weird, now I'm wondering!

Maybe that's where Chuck's weird clouds are coming from???

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20 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

They were seen in 2021, the volcano was 2022.

and @Maestrobjwa

Volcanic climate forcing can be anywhere from 2-4 years with some trailing effects for bigger (or more gaseous) eruptions. The primary constituent of HTHH’s mesosphere-reaching eruption column was water vapor, an anomaly for eruptions at borderline VEI 5/6 level (typically the size needed for impacts). 

With that said, the sulfur output was low and water vapor was high relative to the norm. There have been a few papers published about the water vapor and potential effects; I genuinely can’t answer for how much influence or disruption it may have had or is still currently having. 

I do believe it’s fair to say there is a real possibility of some continued impact, especially as papers I’ve reviewed suggest water vapor lingers longer than traditional volcanic aerosols. 

Unfortunately I believe the most insight will be gained with retrospective analysis as there is no modern, recorded analogue to Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai’s eruptive style + size (roughly Pinatubo size but with enormously different constituent gas makeup). 

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3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I’m getting weary. 

Yea, staying out of mean lr pattern chasing is making the little setups on the horizon fun for me. I like the op gfs showing a wobbling tpv with ns energy zipping around it. Proximity to the tpv means plenty cold with any kind of organized circulation and south passing wave. 

Nothing to slow them down or juice them up unless a southern piece phases but it's a good way to get snow here even if quick hitting. Nickles dimes and quarters but no one dolla hollas lol

 

 

 

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I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a quick pattern regression as we’ve seen over the last week. A quick breakdown of the -NAO around end of month, coupled with a pac jet extension to kick off March. Lots of February-March wintry favorable forecasts are in high danger at this point.

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2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Looks familiar. Where have I seen this before?

Before I went on my rant in early Feb then subsequently took some time away, I noted in the Philly forum to tread lightly with the weeklies and the epic looks. Of course I got booed off the forum even suggesting that. But in all seriousness I will reiterate what I did at that time. Many of these extended products are heavily weighted on past analogs when there are rolled out. So if a group of indices like the QBO, PDO, enso etc match a particular year (let's use 2010 as an example because this year had many similar key features), then the weeklies would tend to spit out something similar that transpired during those analog years. Not saying this is sole reason we got the head fake, but partly is due to this, of that I have no doubt. Many of us actually discussed this in the past and there is truth to the algorithms involved in creating an extended product. Now could I tell you which specific products use more of the analog data? No, I dont have that I fo, but maybe a red tagger would?

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