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there was a change in the GEFS ensembles overnight 0Z and 6Z closing off the wave down south which possibly can allow the system to ride up the coast since closed waves are more favorable for making that left hand turn up the coast then open waves which tend to travel more eastward -have to monitor and see if 12Z confirms the closing off of the wave

gfs-ens_z500a_us_31.png

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

there was a change in the GEFS ensembles overnight closing off the wave down south which possibly can allow the system to ride up the coast since closed waves are more favorable for making that left hand turn up the coast then open waves which tend to travel more eastward -have to monitor and see if 12Z confirms the closing off of the wave

gfs-ens_z500a_us_31.png

Models are backing away from the big cold shot. Maybe this will give us a chance.

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

there was a change in the GEFS ensembles overnight closing off the wave down south which possibly can allow the system to ride up the coast since closed waves are more favorable for making that left hand turn up the coast then open waves which tend to travel more eastward -have to monitor and see if 12Z confirms the closing off of the wave

gfs-ens_z500a_us_31.png

If the ULL moves east it takes the cold With it, unfortunately. It would be another perfect track rain storm 

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500 mb/Surface Temperature Anomalies for El Niño events with a February Region 3.4 average anomaly of +0.50°C or above and those broken down by select Region 1+2 data. The EPS weeklies are currently showing an evolution toward a pattern similar to Cluster 1. Cold would be less widespread and less significant, as the current background state is warmer. Cluster 1 is comprised of February 1958, 1969, and 2010. All of those cases favored a snowy February in the New York City area. However, persistent warmth in Region 1+2 favors Cluster 4. Cluster 4 typically sees more suppressed storms. Cluster 4 is comprised of February 1973, 1983, 1992, and 1998. February 1983 featured a major East Coast blizzard. The other cases saw a decided lack of snowfall.

February 1958 was the single February case with a "warm" Region 1+2 (mean February anomaly of +0.15°C or above) that fell into Cluster 1.

image.png.c1e73249cc903a56419fc3fbf23edff0.png

image.png.1a1c5eb90d52027a6cb9fb448f4156d8.png

image.png.929d29f97b928d7fc0564a34481360d0.png

image.png.0b56ac316e61710177e583db612c4f02.png

 

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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models are backing away from the big cold shot. Maybe this will give us a chance.

also an Omega block is setting up moving forward beginning next week storm after storm will be riding along this southern stream slow moving and IMO a few will ride up the coast and cold enough air will provide us with the opportunity for frozen precip as HP will be in southern Canada

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_32.png

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I'm starting to doubt a great pattern ahead like many predict.
Hopefully the weeklies are correct . I just want 1 huge snowstorm. 
Another winter failure. 

Trolling aside, are you thinking of moving? Living in the coast(al plain) is feast or famine.

Obviously, there are family and career concerns that outweigh this. It’s been a run similar to the early and late 1990s, and especially after everything seemingly worked out for a decade and a half.


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19 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I have dully noted December 2027 in the "When Will There Be A Real Winter Pattern?" poll

The December part makes a lot of sense though, when December sucks usually the rest of the winter sucks too.  1982-83 and 2015-16 were one big storm winters, so they wouldn't really be considered "good" winters anyway.  El Nino or not, the next time we have a very good winter, it will have to get going in December.  Backend winters are as bad as backend snowstorms.

 

 

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1 hour ago, NittanyWx said:

I think your diagnosis of the forcing here is off.  I see this as clear Nino forcing at the expense of the maritime continent, coinciding with +VP200 anomalies maritime continent.

 

You've got about as clean of an eastward propagation in the VP signal as you'd like.    If this doesn't work in traditional canonical fashion for more active (potentially snowier) purposes, it will likely be due to the erosion of source region combined with a poor placement/durability of high latitude blocking as a result of several factors discussed over the past few weeks in here.  All valid, but not cleanly explained by tropical forcing alone.

 

Right now and for the next week, however, you're getting the cleanest + 850 u-wind anomaly signal we've had so far this Nino with an eastward propagation of VP anomalies and a jet extension in the sub-tropics along with a fairly clean shut off of convection for about a week just west of the dateline (as shown in OLR anomalies too).  Wheeler plots aside, those are the typical ingredients of a canonical back half Nino pattern from a tropical forcing/synoptics perspective.

 

So if this doesn't work, I think you'll need to look at factors other than the tropics for why this split flow pattern did not deliver.  I've got a few reasons ready and I'm not convinced this is going to offer much, but I don't agree with your assessment of tropical forcing right now.

 

 

 

 

I think you continue to miss the point. Forcing west of the Dateline is a warm pattern for us here in the East. One of the biases exhibited by the models longer range  is to weaken convection too quickly in this region. The forcing in the entire area around the WPAC warm pool has greatly surpassed the long range model forecast this winter and most winters since 15-16. This is a long term change which is independent of the El Niño this season. It’s the main reason why NYC is on track for a record 9 warmer than average winters in a row. Beyond the 2nd week of February, it’s still possible the convection can shift further east allowing something resembling a February El Niño pattern as we approach Presidents Day week. But we’ll have to just wait and see.

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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think you continue to miss the point. Forcing west of the Dateline is a warm pattern for us here in the East. One of the biases exhibited by the models longer range  is to weaken convection too quickly in this region. The forcing in the entire area around the WPAC warm pool has greatly surpassed the long range model forecast this winter and most winters since 15-16. This is a long term change which is independent of the El Niño this season. It’s the main reason why NYC is on track for a record 9 warmer than average winters in a row. Beyond the 2nd week of February, it’s still possible the convection can shift further east allowing something resembling a February El Niño pattern as we approach Presidents Day week. But we’ll have to just wait and see.

Let's check back in a week and see whether the OLR/VP diagrams back up your claim.  Because so far, this has 'rolled forward' as it were.  Long term trends also are subject to sub-seasonal variability, so you're essentally boiling this down to a persistence forecast inside the d7 timeframe.  I don't agree with that approach right now.  Sub-seasonal variability still does occur even with bg warming and longer term signals you're describing persisting.

 

If this was week 2 and this subsidence hadn't rolled forward, think it'd be fair to question whether this identified subsidence pattern ever emerges.  But you're now arguing that a very strong +OLR anomaly west of the dateline is being misdiagnosed d 1-7 and therefore arguing more skill than the model inside the d7 window.

 

I'm skeptical of that, but let's see.

 

 

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38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think you continue to miss the point. Forcing west of the Dateline is a warm pattern for us here in the East. One of the biases exhibited by the models longer range  is to weaken convection too quickly in this region. The forcing in the entire area around the WPAC warm pool has greatly surpassed the long range model forecast this winter and most winters since 15-16. This is a long term change which is independent of the El Niño this season. It’s the main reason why NYC is on track for a record 9 warmer than average winters in a row. Beyond the 2nd week of February, it’s still possible the convection can shift further east allowing something resembling a February El Niño pattern as we approach Presidents Day week. But we’ll have to just wait and see.

There's an even bigger picture here.  An NOAA scientist just talked about widespread coral bleaching events being connected to this warming and how they are becoming more and more common and how soon enough we will have widespread coral bleaching all across our oceans because of this unnatural warming and how it has and will continue to disrupt marine ecosystems and at an alarmingly accelerated rate.

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20 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Let's check back in a week and see whether the OLR/VP diagrams back up your claim.  Because so far, this has 'rolled forward' as it were.  Long term trends also are subject to sub-seasonal variability, so you're essentally boiling this down to a persistence forecast inside the d7 timeframe.  I don't agree with that approach right now.  Sub-seasonal variability still does occur even with bg warming and longer term signals you're describing persisting.

 

If this was week 2 and this subsidence hadn't rolled forward, think it'd be fair to question whether this identified subsidence pattern ever emerges.  But you're now arguing that a very strong +OLR anomaly west of the dateline is being misdiagnosed d 1-7 and therefore arguing more skill than the model inside the d7 window.

 

I'm skeptical of that, but let's see.

 

 

Just look at how much the Euro monthly struggled with its January forecast issued back in December. It was going with something similar to a stock El Niño 500 composite in January. But instead we got a more Niña-like 500 mb pattern with a much stronger STJ due to the continuing El Niño. But the forcing from the Eastern IO into WPAC was missed. This is a common theme of the weekly and monthly model runs since the 15-16 winter due to the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool.
 

Forecast

 

A40ACB51-F9F8-40B0-AA2C-D4F0890B70A8.gif.95432ac0637002b6b7cc6374a0691c86.gif

7E652330-9DF6-4A8E-B3D4-C748EFD43EE7.jpeg.d38559923ed61f2b4c3889d6437c3a63.jpeg

 

Verification 

 

55487EEB-22E1-4A62-B338-21A3528C0DC5.gif.1ae069f0f806a985df38a5bdbc9a7aa2.gif

F248AC97-FA47-46CB-846F-9B29BB7CF954.gif.9aca9d9a07afffcdf44a6ee400291514.gif

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just look at how much the Euro monthly struggled with its January forecast issued back in December. It was going with something similar to a stock El Niño 500 composite in January. But instead we got a more Niña-like 500 mb pattern with a much stronger STJ due to the continuing El Niño. But the forcing from the Eastern IO into WPAC was missed. This is a common theme of the weekly and monthly model runs since the 15-16 winter due to the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool.
 

Forecast

 

A40ACB51-F9F8-40B0-AA2C-D4F0890B70A8.gif.95432ac0637002b6b7cc6374a0691c86.gif

7E652330-9DF6-4A8E-B3D4-C748EFD43EE7.jpeg.d38559923ed61f2b4c3889d6437c3a63.jpeg

 

Verification 

 

55487EEB-22E1-4A62-B338-21A3528C0DC5.gif.1ae069f0f806a985df38a5bdbc9a7aa2.gif

F248AC97-FA47-46CB-846F-9B29BB7CF954.gif.9aca9d9a07afffcdf44a6ee400291514.gif

 

what is interesting as how cold the south east has been.

 

That’s a little bit different from the past several years. I was in Florida for a month between December and January and you couldn’t buy warm day.

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34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just look at how much the Euro monthly struggled with its January forecast issued back in December. It was going with something similar to a stock El Niño 500 composite in January. But instead we got a more Niña-like 500 mb pattern with a much stronger STJ due to the continuing El Niño. But the forcing from the Eastern IO into WPAC was missed. This is a common theme of the weekly and monthly model runs since the 15-16 winter due to the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool.
 

Forecast

 

A40ACB51-F9F8-40B0-AA2C-D4F0890B70A8.gif.95432ac0637002b6b7cc6374a0691c86.gif

7E652330-9DF6-4A8E-B3D4-C748EFD43EE7.jpeg.d38559923ed61f2b4c3889d6437c3a63.jpeg

 

Verification 

 

55487EEB-22E1-4A62-B338-21A3528C0DC5.gif.1ae069f0f806a985df38a5bdbc9a7aa2.gif

F248AC97-FA47-46CB-846F-9B29BB7CF954.gif.9aca9d9a07afffcdf44a6ee400291514.gif

 

We're talking about very different time horizons.  I'm not using a Euro monthly inside d7, I'm not using a Euro weekly inside D7.

 

I am seeing W Pac subsidence inside d7 on most dynamic models though, and I'm also seeing upper level pattern shifts in regions of the tropics I forecast for reflect those changes.  I don't think persistence is going to outperform the models inside d7, personally.

 

But we can verify on Feb 5-6 and see whether that's true or not.   I suspect the model will win in this Jan 29-Feb 5 window.

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18 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

We're talking about very different time horizons.  I'm not using a Euro monthly inside d7, I'm not using a Euro weekly inside D7.

 

I am seeing W Pac subsidence inside d7 on most dynamic models though, and I'm also seeing upper level pattern shifts in regions of the tropics I forecast for reflect those changes.  I don't think persistence is going to outperform the models inside d7, personally.

 

But we can verify on Feb 5-6 and see whether that's true or not.   I suspect the model will win in this Jan 29-Feb 5 window.

I was talking about longer range and not inside day 7.

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1 hour ago, NittanyWx said:

Let's check back in a week and see whether the OLR/VP diagrams back up your claim.  Because so far, this has 'rolled forward' as it were.  Long term trends also are subject to sub-seasonal variability, so you're essentally boiling this down to a persistence forecast inside the d7 timeframe.  I don't agree with that approach right now.  Sub-seasonal variability still does occur even with bg warming and longer term signals you're describing persisting.

 

If this was week 2 and this subsidence hadn't rolled forward, think it'd be fair to question whether this identified subsidence pattern ever emerges.  But you're now arguing that a very strong +OLR anomaly west of the dateline is being misdiagnosed d 1-7 and therefore arguing more skill than the model inside the d7 window.

 

I'm skeptical of that, but let's see.

 

 

What does the "bg" stand for in "bg warming".  Google was no help with this question.  

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