Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,540
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    clydes6
    Newest Member
    clydes6
    Joined

Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

A few weeks ago they were showing a mid-month relax/warmer pattern. And yet, here we are this week. 

Don’t have any confidence in LR beyond 1 week to 10 days. 

Exactly. I think we get too hung up on the details of long-range looks during a very specific period when we should take all guidance across time as a general guide.

As always, the look for any week from any model run could hit perfectly, but that doesn't mean that the model was necessarily "right" since it's likely the look it gave was different on a previous or subsequent run.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Exactly. I think we get too hung up on the details of long-range looks during a very specific period when we should take all guidance across time as a general guide.

As always, the look for any week from any model run could hit perfectly, but that doesn't mean that the model was necessarily "right" since it's likely the look it gave was different on a previous or subsequent run.

Yeah, and I think these model LR forecasts rely too much on the MJO. Well, the MJO are well within the warm phases this week and our sensible weather has been the opposite of what you’d expect. It’s not the end all be all like some are saying. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the guidance is correct though...and we get a 1-2 week period like this before things recycle back to a good pattern...

When this happens...

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t2m_c_anom-6421600.thumb.png.1b79efac305301738bc6a209b65029df.png

Does that mean I am going to have to hear the "everything is fine" crew blame the torch we get late Jan/Early Feb for why its too warm when we get a couple perfect track rainstorms in February?  As if to snow now we need there to NEVER be a bad pattern at all for the entire winter because we need weeks to build cold as if that is somehow not part of the problem!  

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the guidance is correct though...and we get a 1-2 week period like this before things recycle back to a good pattern...

When this happens...

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t2m_c_anom-6421600.thumb.png.1b79efac305301738bc6a209b65029df.png

Does that mean I am going to have to hear the "everything is fine" crew blame the torch we get late Jan/Early Feb for why its too warm when we get a couple perfect track rainstorms in February?  As if to snow now we need there to NEVER be a bad pattern at all for the entire winter because we need weeks to build cold as if that is somehow not part of the problem!  

If, if, if.....like you told me yesterday, just let it play out, lol Hopefully it'll be different since we've already had cold now (unlike to start where there wasn't any cold anywhere in our source regions from the end of Nov). And I'm still wondering why not getting much snow on the front end of a niño is a red flag...unless previous less front ends of niños were less snowy (or none at all) for a different reason? :huh:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Does that mean I am going to have to hear the "everything is fine" crew blame the torch we get late Jan/Early Feb for why its too warm when we get a couple perfect track rainstorms in February?  As if to snow now we need there to NEVER be a bad pattern at all for the entire winter because we need weeks to build cold as if that is somehow not part of the problem!  

Probably, yes.  My question is: why do you care?

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

If, if, if.....like you told me yesterday, just let it play out, lol Hopefully it'll be different since we've already had cold now (unlike to start where there wasn't any cold anywhere in our source regions from the end of Nov). And I'm still wondering why not getting much snow on the front end of a niño is a red flag...unless previous less front ends of niños were less snowy (or none at all) for a different reason? :huh:

Don't misunderstand me... I am still optimistic we get another snowy pattern from about Mid February into March.  I am unsure early Feb honestly.  Hopefully the next round maximizes potential a bit more than this last one.  It wasn't awful but we needed a little more out of a 3-4 week good longwave pattern.  

But the point I was trying to make is lately anytime we get a bad longwave pattern it isn't just kinda warm, its a complete TORCH.  And even in a Nino when forcing is located where we want most of the winter we are still going to be unfavorable periods mixed in.  We are never going to have a wall to wall no hostile period at all winter.   So the excuse of "its not warming its that we are still recovering from the torch" is circular thinking and makes no sense to me.  We often wont have weeks to wait for a colder airmass to slowly carve its way back into our area after a bad pattern.  The fact that warm patterns torch the continent so bad that it takes weeks to recover and have a chance of snow is part of the same problem not an excuse.  

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have to admit the upcoming Sh!t the blinds pattern has snuck up on me as I was being lazy and not looking at the LR while I have been enjoying the cold.

Alas, here we are..

Skipping over the grim 6-10 there does appear to be come hope of renewed -EPO afterword which at least would help with the cold.  Not sure where we're going to get the moisture though.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Don't misunderstand me... I am still optimistic we get another snowy pattern from about Mid February into March.  I am unsure early Feb honestly.  Hopefully the next round maximizes potential a bit more than this last one.  It wasn't awful but we needed a little more out of a 3-4 week good longwave pattern.  

But the point I was trying to make is lately anytime we get a bad longwave pattern it isn't just kinda warm, its a complete TORCH.  And even in a Nino when forcing is located where we want most of the winter we are still going to be unfavorable periods mixed in.  We are never going to have a wall to wall no hostile period at all winter.   So the excuse of "its not warming its that we are still recovering from the torch" is circular thinking and makes no sense to me.  We often wont have weeks to wait for a colder airmass to slowly carve its way back into our area after a bad pattern.  The fact that warm patterns torch the continent so bad that it takes weeks to recover and have a chance of snow is part of the same problem not an excuse.  

But how about warmth at the beginning of met winter, though? Maybe I'm being too simplistic here, but...if it's December 1st and we've had a bit of a torch until late in the month, if there was never any cold air there in the first place...wouldn't it take from late Dec. to maybe last week to change the pattern (building cold in our source regions?)

Or are you saying the source regions should've started out colder on Dec 1st and the weren't because of...

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

looks like another jet extension will bring a big warmup for the country, but when it retracts it should bring back blocking(we've seen this before), probably around feb 10th

the -PNA from the jet extension along with a +SCAND will setup a pattern for -NAO wavebreaking, hopefully we can cash in on that period when it retracts

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

even with the jet extension, this doesn't have the same feel as December, as you still have polar flow with ridging into AK and Siberia

like this isn't really torchy as the source region is still intact, it's different from Dec where you have a straight up vortex over those regions

is it great, no, but it would still provide opportunities before the jet retracts. I can see this trending worse, but it's fine for now. then, as the jet retracts, that's when you really open it up for something bigger

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-6940000.thumb.png.75c1bf00b4d0e01734925485a29e2c68.pngcmc-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-6940000.thumb.png.815a4fd151bf0ca47597f99d5bb28312.pngcompday.G11Ajgj2K3.gif.8cdf2b532653a0cca1e819e1b31e278c.gif

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

For goodness sake---how do we get snow around  here

ec-fast_T850_us_10.png

You need a reliable mechanism to get sustainable cold air into the region that doesn't get pushed out by every cutter. Only way to beat that is an incredibly timed system that threads the needle coupled with a well placed 50/50 on its way out. Going to be difficult to escape our glorious cutters the next 10 days or so as we wait for that Pac Jet to clam down moving into early Feb. 

If you want snow in the area though, look out your window tonight

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If the guidance is correct though...and we get a 1-2 week period like this before things recycle back to a good pattern...

When this happens...

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t2m_c_anom-6421600.thumb.png.1b79efac305301738bc6a209b65029df.png

Does that mean I am going to have to hear the "everything is fine" crew blame the torch we get late Jan/Early Feb for why its too warm when we get a couple perfect track rainstorms in February?  As if to snow now we need there to NEVER be a bad pattern at all for the entire winter because we need weeks to build cold as if that is somehow not part of the problem!  

February is starting to look like potential train wreck especially with this jet extension.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

looks like another jet extension will bring a big warmup for the country, but when it retracts it should bring back blocking(we've seen this before), probably around feb 10th

the -PNA from the jet extension along with a +SCAND will setup a pattern for -NAO wavebreaking, hopefully we can cash in on that period when it retracts

NPAC jet extensions are more prevalent/expected in a Nino, and literally favor a +PNA. So that is NOT in and of itself the 'cause' of the warmth. The AO is neutral, and the NAO is positive. Shift those indices negative with that jet extension and we have a much more favorable/colder h5 pattern for the beginning of Feb. None of this stuff happens in isolation.

1706659200-lMXFWRnNq1A.png

1706659200-amvNteEXwlY.png

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i do like seeing these HP continuously getting ejected into S Canada. two 1040-50mb HPs is nothing to sneeze at. can give us a chance at a WAA event even with a crap longwave pattern. the HP make sense given the ridge over AK

gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_fh102-192.thumb.gif.edb1ec670ded0354160d3501e647320a.gif

Yeah I was kind of looking at that, even if it's an ops deterministic at that range.  Those are some serious HP systems, and even if they tend to get "kicked out" (with a +NAO), the implication seems to be there's still some cold air around and not far away.  All the freaking out over next week's warmup seems a bit odd to me...for the past week, it's been WELL KNOWN (or so I thought!) that after this weekend, we'd be looking at a relax or warmup pattern for 7-10 days or there about.  This is no surprise.  Will it be a "torch"?  I don't know, but even if it is relatively speaking, wouldn't it be good at least if the cold air source region in Canada remains cold (i.e., if Canada doesn't get flooded with Pac puke)?  As you said above, this isn't the same kind of thing that we had coming out of December.  I hold out reasonable hope and optimism that we have a favorable pattern sometime by the first part of February, and hopefully a return to some good -NAO blocking.  In any event, the indications are for a pretty good +PNA ridge to form sometime toward the end of this month or so.  I seriously don't think we get screwed for all of February into the first half of March (at least not yet, LOL!!).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know we do warm well. Something seems wrong with the progression, though completely possible. I feel we see better trends with that high to the north, but not great trends soon. BUT, that is not science in that.. the guidance looks like poop! I see beter CAD and some icing concerns based on that Euro map. Just takes time to get better. 

Sucks to be fighting against such crazy climate. 

In 2016 we had a huge storm showing up on models by now!

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know we do warm well. Something seems wrong with the progression, though completely possible. I feel we see better trends with that high to the north, but not great trends soon. BUT, that is not science in that.. the guidance looks like poop! I see beter CAD and some icing concerns based on that Euro map. Just takes time to get better. 
Sucks to be fighting against such crazy climate. 
In 2016 we had a huge storm showing up on models by now!
 
 

dafe1f9a7d04c4bd0d866456d85a55c0.jpg
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

NPAC jet extensions are more prevalent/expected in a Nino, and literally favor a +PNA. So that is NOT in and of itself the 'cause' of the warmth. The AO is neutral, and the NAO is positive. Shift those indices negative with that jet extension and we have a much more favorable/colder h5 pattern for the beginning of Feb. None of this stuff happens in isolation.

1706659200-lMXFWRnNq1A.png

1706659200-amvNteEXwlY.png

 

ik - i was just talking about the pattern potentially becoming more favorable for -NAO wavebreaking (along w the +SCAND lol) w the jet extension, and mainly the pattern after the transient favorable period before mid feb

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...