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Jan 18-19 Storm Threat: Bob Chill made me do it


stormtracker
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It's a damn shame that frontrunner energy zips on thru essentially detached from the ULL vort. This one had alot more potential than many think. But I also think many here will be quite happy with another light event....a snow-on-snow. Save Feb for the big dogs. It is sort of funny tho that for 5 weeks we get deluge after deluge, cold air comes in and they vanish. Again, we take what we got, no complaints. Just funny.

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12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Solution Man or whoever, you must carry the gauntlet for the 18z GFS.  I'll be heading home from work and stopping to get materials for Taco Tuesday.   Godspeed. 

If they're old school tacos I might come over.

Not too worried about the RGEM

AtVCqjf.png

 

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's a damn shame that frontrunner energy zips on thru essentially detached from the ULL vort. This one had alot more potential than many think. But I also think many here will be quite happy with another light event....a snow-on-snow. Save Feb for the big dogs. It is sort of funny tho that for 5 weeks we get deluge after deluge, cold air comes in and they vanish. Again, we take what we got, no complaints. Just funny.

Be careful

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28 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

So, if one of the more knowledgeable people here is able to help out - this sounding here from NAM, in Baltimore during what appears to be best reflectivity:
nam_2024011618_069_39.27--76.53.png

Contrary to yesterday's storm, flakes should be healthier IF this was to pass? Feels like only thing keeping it from being an even bigger surprise was getting pixie dust most of the time. I am under the impression deflection of the dewpoint at a layer would be a dryslot, and it looks better here - or am I looking in the wrong place?

Also I'm sure soundings are far too early at this point for the NAM but trying to learn!

I think so, temp/dew is much closer together, thus better saturation within the column and usually a good dendritic growth zone. further apart the dew/temp is, less moisture in the column, smaller flakes, less accumulation when precip rates are light. 

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13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's a damn shame that frontrunner energy zips on thru essentially detached from the ULL vort. This one had alot more potential than many think. But I also think many here will be quite happy with another light event....a snow-on-snow. Save Feb for the big dogs. It is sort of funny tho that for 5 weeks we get deluge after deluge, cold air comes in and they vanish. Again, we take what we got, no complaints. Just funny.

I think it was just getting under that tpv. Suppressed the SS a bit...got slightly unlucky there--which is why we should be very grateful to get what we have so far! Thankfully we're getting a bit of a reset...that stj is still very much alive, lol

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Just now, WesternFringe said:

Didn’t happen in this last storm.

It definitely happened this last storm. I am in the Spotsylvania area and we had a bullseye for a while. The final 24 hours of modeling moved it north a ways and final results were north getting more. (It’s the same with most storms). I only remember a handful where I got more than the north crew in the last 15 years. 

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16 minutes ago, Demeter said:

It definitely happened this last storm. I am in the Spotsylvania area and we had a bullseye for a while. The final 24 hours of modeling moved it north a ways and final results were north getting more. (It’s the same with most storms). I only remember a handful where I got more than the north crew in the last 15 years. 

Sorry it didn’t work out for you, but for most folks the last storm trended better in the last 24-36 hours if you go back and read the thread.  I don’t think the guidance shifted north late much for most longitudes in this sub.  I think it was the opposite and the last minute trends were good.

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15 minutes ago, Demeter said:

It definitely happened this last storm. I am in the Spotsylvania area and we had a bullseye for a while. The final 24 hours of modeling moved it north a ways and final results were north getting more. (It’s the same with most storms). I only remember a handful where I got more than the north crew in the last 15 years. 

These storms that have to cross the mountains are so precarious from DC south.  Our snow gets eaten

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4 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Sorry it didn’t work out for you, but for most folks the last storm trended better in the last 24-36 hours if you go back and read the thread.  I don’t think the guidance shifted north late much for most longitudes in this sub.  I think it was the opposite and the last minute trends were good.

I am so used to the north trend that I always set my bar low. I was happy to get snowy scenery and flakes in the air. My happy place, so a win for me :)

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