Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[Will - Rutgers]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Back down to 24. Should be mid teens by morning

people have forgotten how to clear sidewalks tomorrow will be a massacre

[NorthShoreWx]

2.3" snow total in Smithtown.  0.52"  liquid equivalent, all frozen or freezing.  Max T was 31.6⁰

[psv88]

Classic mid winter shit storm. 2.4” of snow/ice, max temp today of 32.0. 
 

3.4” for the season lol 

[Allsnow]

Haha. Nyc 

 

 

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Classic mid winter shit storm. 2.4” of snow/ice, max temp today of 32.0. 
 

3.4” for the season lol 

Nice wintry look outside finally and as expected everything’s frozen into cement. All that was really expected from this storm. Glad I’m not staring at brown ground anymore. 

[NorthShoreWx]

Maybe related to today's weather, we've lost power again.  More likely someone looked cross-eyed at a transmission line.  It's to be expected; it's not like we live in Yemen.

[snowman19]

Sloatsburg….Got around 2 inches of snow and it changed to sleet, graupel and freezing rain even up here. That warm nose was no joke. The Sunday run of the ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) were actually extremely accurate with snowfall totals

[snywx]

2.8” final here

18” ytd

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Maybe related to today's weather, we've lost power again.  More likely someone looked cross-eyed at a transmission line.  It's to be expected; it's not like we live in Yemen.

It's happened over here too  I'm worried about my electronics frying, both my computer and TV shut down immediately and did not come back on, while the lights flickered and stayed on.  I have the computer hooked up to a UPS and the TV hooked up to a surge protector.

I get these about once a week-- where the power flickers off on very quickly and the computer and TV shut off and stay off but everything else turns right back on again.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, MANDA said:

2" here.  Temperatures low 20's late morning into mid afternoon.  High for the day 25.3 which is current temperatures.  The snow was crusted over by light freezing drizzle at times during early afternoon.  Precipitation did end as a period of snow.  Winds gusting out of the NW now.

the 2-3 inch totals are uniform across the area which is interesting in a changeover event!

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Sloatsburg….Got around 2 inches of snow and it changed to sleet, graupel and freezing rain even up here. That warm nose was no joke. The Sunday run of the ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) were actually extremely accurate with snowfall totals

was this warm nose unusually vicious because of the abnormally warm ocean temps? I keep thinking that in a different season this storm would have been all snow because it tracked south of us and the winds always had a northerly component to them-- either NE or due N or NW.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

It’s been a nightmare of a snow removal

event do to the ice and duration. Our crew is shot. Nothing worse than a glaze of ice and temps around 20. Salt becomes increasingly ineffective when the temps are 20 or below. 

 

[snywx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

the 2-3 inch totals are uniform across the area which is interesting in a changeover event!

 

We never changed over up here. Just lack of precip 

[IrishRob17]

56 minutes ago, snywx said:

We never changed over up here. Just lack of precip 

It was close but yeah, I was in Goshen and saw only snow, if there was anything else it was very brief.  I did see mPING reports of mixed precip in southern Orange County yesterday afternoon.   

[nycemt123]

It was close but yeah, I was in Goshen and saw only snow, if there was anything else it was very brief.  I did see mPING reports of mixed precip in southern Orange County yesterday afternoon.   

We did change over in monsey but it was definitely lack of precip more than anything

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

[MANDA]

Total 2" snow for the event with melted total of .33"- some portion of that .33" fell as freezing rain.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s been a nightmare of a snow removal

event do to the ice and duration. Our crew is shot. Nothing worse than a glaze of ice and temps around 20. Salt becomes increasingly ineffective when the temps are 20 or below. 

 

I wonder how they would have done in 1993-94 with all that snow and ice combined and I remember we ran out of salt that season.

[wdrag]

Well, it was an extensive snow and ice event... the Globals: EC and GFS missed the icing along I95, until the last couple of 6 hour cycles and way out D4 or 5. The globals were also a little shy on qpf throughout.  

The Canadian, SPCHREF and HRRR were not very good this time... really messed up NNJ/w CT...  nor did I recognize (modelologist) the less than 3" swath extreme nw NJ-w CT.  

Still I think the NAM/RDPS did the best on icing indicators and heavier inland qpf than the globals and had an idea of 3" snows e PA.

Here's NOHRSC snow accums (don't look DC southwest since it doesn't have the snow prior to 00z16 - it's a 24 hr satellite-observed interface), also attached CoCoRaHs two day snowfall and qpf.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder how they would have done in 1993-94 with all that snow and ice combined and I remember we ran out of salt that season.

A huge ice storm is my worst nightmare for snow removal. Luckily the last big one was way before my time. They happen, but are rare near the coast. I’ll never forget the look of the trees in the sun after the 94 ice storm.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder how they would have done in 1993-94 with all that snow and ice combined and I remember we ran out of salt that season.

That's why it's not always about the total amount of snow but the number of snow and ice events. 93-94 had more than just about any other winter. I think the schools had like 16 days off or some crazy number like that 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

A huge ice storm is my worst nightmare for snow removal. Luckily the last big one was way before my time. They happen, but are rare near the coast. I’ll never forget the look of the trees in the sun after the 94 ice storm.

yes 2 inches of ice on the south shore was a sight to behold-- and we had layers of sleet and snow under that lol-- it was like walking on an iceberg!

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That's why it's not always about the total amount of snow but the number of snow and ice events. 93-94 had more than just about any other winter. I think the schools had like 16 days off or some crazy number like that 

I think we had 25 or some crazy number like that, basically 2 every week for the entire winter!

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

yes 2 inches of ice on the south shore was a sight to behold-- and we had layers of sleet and snow under that lol-- it was like walking on an iceberg!

 

I remember we tried to go sledding at cedar creek and you couldn’t walk up the hill. That’s some serious ice accretion!

[Roger Smith]

Snow stopped falling just after end of Tuesday in n.eastern Maine, and here's a roundup of reported values (including Monday Jan 15 where snow or precip began before midnight): 

 

JAN 15-16 Snowfalls and Liquid Equivalents

Loc ___ snow _ liq.equiv. __ portion on Jan 15

BGR ___ 4.8" (0.39" l.e.) __ Tr snow Jan 17

CAR ___ 9.0" (0.62" l.e.) __ total 10.1" (0.67" counting Jan 17)

PWM ___ 2.8" (0.36" l.e.)

CON ___ 5.1" (0.41" l.e.)

BTV ___ 5.1" (0.20" l.e.) incl (0.1" on 0.01" l.e. 15th)

BOS ___ 3.5" (0.56" l.e.)

PVD ___ 3.4" (0.75" l.e.) incl (0.1" on 0.01" l.e. 15th)

ORH ___ 3.6" (0.46" l.e.)

BDL ___ 2.0" (0.31" l.e.) (Tr l.e. 15th)

ALB ___ 3.4" (0.25" l.e.)

BGM ___ 5.2" (0.21" l.e.)

AVP ___ 2.2" (0.19" l.e.) incl (0.2" on Trace l.e. 15th)

BDR ___ 2.0" (0.30" l.e.) incl (0.2" on 0.01" l.e. 15th)

ISP ____ 2.3" (0.53" l.e.) incl (0.5" on 0.07" l.e. 15th)

JFK ___ 2.0" (0.42" l.e.) incl (0.7" on 0.06" l.e. 15th)

NYC ___ 1.7" (0.32" l.e.) incl (0.4" on 0.04" l.e. 15th)

LGA ___ 2.3" (0.37" l.e.) incl (0.3" on 0.04" l.e. 15th)

EWR ___ 2.1" (0.27" l.e.) incl (0.4" on 0.03" l.e. 15th)

ACY ___ 1.3" (0.39" l.e.) incl (1.0" on 0.12" l.e. 15th)

PHL ___ 3.3" (0.42" l.e.) incl (1.5" on 0.19" l.e. 15th)

ABE ___ 3.0" (0.29" l.e.) incl (0.6" on 0.06" l.e. 15th)

MDT ___ 3.1" (0.30" l.e.) incl (0.8" on 0.07" l.e. 15th)

BWI ___ 4.9" (0.48" l.e.) incl (4.1" on 0.36" l.e. 15th)

DCA ___ 4.1" (0.35" l.e.) incl (3.4" on 0.31" l.e. 15th)

IAD ___ 4.4" (0.34" l.e.) incl (4.1" on 0.31" l.e. 15th)

RIC ___ 0.5" (0.35" l.e.) incl (0.5" on 0.14" l.e. 15th)

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Not sure if snow stopped falling before end of Tuesday in eastern Maine, but here's a roundup of reported values (including Monday Jan 15 where snow or precip began before midnight): 

 

JAN 15-16 Snowfalls and Liquid Equivalents

Loc ___ snow _ liq.equiv. __ portion on Jan 15

BGR ___ 4.8" (0.39" l.e.)

CAR ___ 9.0" (0.62" l.e.)

PWM ___ 2.8" (0.36" l.e.)

CON ___ 5.1" (0.41" l.e.)

BTV ___ 5.1" (0.20" l.e.) incl (0.1" on 0.01" l.e. 15th)

BOS ___ 3.5" (0.56" l.e.)

PVD ___ 3.4" (0.75" l.e.) incl (0.1" on 0.01" l.e. 15th)

ORH ___ 3.6" (0.46" l.e.)

BDL ___ 2.0" (0.31" l.e.) (Tr l.e. 15th)

ALB ___ 3.4" (0.25" l.e.)

BGM ___ 5.2" (0.21" l.e.)

AVP ___ 2.2" (0.19" l.e.) incl (0.2" on Trace l.e. 15th)

BDR ___ 2.0" (0.30" l.e.) incl (0.2" on 0.01" l.e. 15th)

ISP ____ 2.3" (0.53" l.e.) incl (0.5" on 0.07" l.e. 15th)

JFK ___ 2.0" (0.42" l.e.) incl (0.7" on 0.06" l.e. 15th)

NYC ___ 1.7" (0.32" l.e.) incl (0.4" on 0.04" l.e. 15th)

LGA ___ 2.3" (0.37" l.e.) incl (0.3" on 0.04" l.e. 15th)

EWR ___ 2.1" (0.27" l.e.) incl (0.4" on 0.03" l.e. 15th)

ACY ___ 1.3" (0.39" l.e.) incl (1.0" on 0.12" l.e. 15th)

PHL ___ 3.3" (0.42" l.e.) incl (1.5" on 0.19" l.e. 15th)

ABE ___ 3.0" (0.29" l.e.) incl (0.6" on 0.06" l.e. 15th)

MDT ___ 3.1" (0.30" l.e.) incl (0.8" on 0.07" l.e. 15th)

BWI ___ 4.9" (0.48" l.e.) incl (4.1" on 0.36" l.e. 15th)

DCA ___ 4.1" (0.35" l.e.) incl (3.4" on 0.31" l.e. 15th)

IAD ___ 4.4" (0.34" l.e.) incl (4.1" on 0.31" l.e. 15th)

RIC ___ 0.5" (0.35" l.e.) incl (0.5" on 0.14" l.e. 15th)

wait.... Scranton had 0.2" inches of snow on a trace of liquid equivalent on the 15th?  How is this possible? Wouldn't that indicate a ratio of infinity?!

 

[jm1220]

9 hours ago, wdrag said:

Well, it was an extensive snow and ice event... the Globals: EC and GFS missed the icing along I95, until the last couple of 6 hour cycles and way out D4 or 5. The globals were also a little shy on qpf throughout.  

The Canadian, SPCHREF and HRRR were not very good this time... really messed up NNJ/w CT...  nor did I recognize (modelologist) the less than 3" swath extreme nw NJ-w CT.  

Still I think the NAM/RDPS did the best on icing indicators and heavier inland qpf than the globals and had an idea of 3" snows e PA.

Here's NOHRSC snow accums (don't look DC southwest since it doesn't have the snow prior to 00z16 - it's a 24 hr satellite-observed interface), also attached CoCoRaHs two day snowfall and qpf.

NW of the city was a bust on the modeling like you said. They almost all showed the heaviest snow up there but they were skunked. 

[Roger Smith]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wait.... Scranton had 0.2" inches of snow on a trace of liquid equivalent on the 15th?  How is this possible? Wouldn't that indicate a ratio of infinity?!

 

It indicates fluffy snow that appeared 0.2" deep by ruler but when melted down was less than 0.01" which is a trace of rain too (trace as you know probably is any observation that measures less than 0.05" of liquid.

I read a comment on NE forum from somebody in VT saying 7" of snow melted down to 0.20" so at same rate 0.2" would melt to about 0.06" so it must have been even fluffier. 

[wdrag]

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

NW of the city was a bust on the modeling like you said. They almost all showed the heaviest snow up there but they were skunked. 

It was disorganized. This attached is the final rendition of satellite and observed. Therre is 3-4" near Toms River, but also bordering Sussex County into northeast PA and fairly extensive 4-6" IPT-BGM-Oneanta. So, it wasn't a good modeling effort nw NJ/se NYS nw CT...  However, impact was pretty significant due to 20-25F temps there, even yesterday morning delays due to leftovers.  Modeling wasn't excellent there, but skunked--- me was more so disappointed in expectation unrealized. Not all Canadian modeling will be excellent but it had the idea... further west on decent snow AND ice.  Only the NAM and HRRR joined. Flake size had something to do with this... densely covered. No grass blades here. 

 

I saw some comments that the Canadian missed this 19th event (erratic)... I think NOT. It initially targeted PA-NJ (00Z/12) and it has continued, but lowering the initial outlook, whereas EC-EPS has been near PHL All one has to do is go back to the trop tidbits and select hour 00z/12 cycle, 24 hour 10-1 SLR ending 06z/20, and then advance next cycle after cycle.  I kind of like its peg that NYC subforum would be involved with snow action (hence the 18th thread after 2 cycles at 0015z/13).  "GFS didnt pick up til 06z/13 and only recently settled in".  For me, if the Canadian doesn't have it... better call it chancy at best. 

Thanks for the opportunity. I'll donate to AMWX soon, for just having had the opportunity to comment all these years. 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, wdrag said:

It was disorganized. This attached is the final rendition of satellite and observed. Therre is 3-4" near Toms River, but also bordering Sussex County into northeast PA and fairly extensive 4-6" IPT-BGM-Oneanta. So, it wasn't a good modeling effort nw NJ/se NYS nw CT...  However, impact was pretty significant due to 20-25F temps there, even yesterday morning delays due to leftovers.  Modeling wasn't excellent there, but skunked--- me was more so disappointed in expectation unrealized. Not all Canadian modeling will be excellent but it had the idea... further west on decent snow AND ice.  Only the NAM and HRRR joined. Flake size had something to do with this... densely covered. No grass blades here. 

 

I saw some comments that the Canadian missed this 19th event (erratic)... I think NOT. It initially targeted PA-NJ (00Z/12) and it has continued, but lowering the initial outlook, whereas EC-EPS has been near PHL All one has to do is go back to the trop tidbits and select hour 00z/12 cycle, 24 hour 10-1 SLR ending 06z/20, and then advance next cycle after cycle.  I kind of like its peg that NYC subforum would be involved with snow action (hence the 18th thread after 2 cycles at 0015z/13).  "GFS didnt pick up til 06z/13 and only recently settled in".  For me, if the Canadian doesn't have it... better call it chancy at best. 

Thanks for the opportunity. I'll donate to AMWX soon, for just having had the opportunity to comment all these years. 

Walt around 4" in my part of the Poconos near I-80 Blakeslee, PA.

 

[wdrag]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt around 4" in my part of the Poconos near I-80 Blakeslee, PA.

 

?  not certain...I think a little less. Need to respect that RGEM/HRDPS trending DOWN.  I think PHI has it pretty good.  SREF still north along I80 for 3-5" so am not certain but just enjoy 2+ there for starters and the rest is gravy, if there is more it is nicer. 

This snow is a nice complementary refresher to what we received on Tuesday.  Am off line til tonight.