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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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14 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

So are the ops ever going to show anything? Everyone living and dying by the ens until April hits?

18z GFS shows plenty of 60s for highs for the SE in that run.

Does this work for you? It's still not worth relying on. 

gfs-deterministic-nc-total_snow_kuchera-8452000.png

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1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Well, look at that. There’s finally an ops run showing some wintertime fun^_^

 Just for the record, the 12Z GFS isn’t the first GFS showing significant wintry somewhere in the SE as most runs over the last few days have shown that. Not always in your BY but somewhere in the SE, sometimes deep south.

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16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Just for the record, the 12Z GFS isn’t the first GFS showing significant wintry somewhere in the SE as most runs over the last few days have shown that. Not always in your BY but somewhere in the SE, sometimes deep south.

Indeed! :lol: My bad. I should’ve added imby ^_^ 

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4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The MJO hasn't and isn't the only driver this winter and the lead plots have been horrible this winter. There are MULTIPLE variables in the coming up pattern. 

No kidding.  Go back and look at some of those projections for late Jan with high amp in phase-6.  Never happened as I thought it wouldn't

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 This is the coldest the Euro Weeklies have been in the SE for the week of 2/19-26: dark blue is ~6-7 F BN. That’s pretty significant for an ensemble mean and it could even trend colder. But even if not, a week of 6-7 BN implies the coldest day would probably easily be in the teens or so BN.

IMG_9148.thumb.webp.85e5ead134588eb45297ca63f8cd6a37.webp

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3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

The Climate Prediction is not perfect in its forecast, but it doesn’t put these outlooks out recklessly 

Nope! At a minimum it’s a sign that they’re on board for recognizing the ripe potential in front of us.

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29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 This is the coldest the Euro Weeklies have been in the SE for the week of 2/19-26: dark blue is ~6-7 F BN. That’s pretty significant for an ensemble mean and it could even trend colder. But even if not, a week of 6-7 BN implies the coldest day would probably easily be in the teens or so BN.

IMG_9148.thumb.webp.85e5ead134588eb45297ca63f8cd6a37.webp

How do the other weeks look?

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