Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[78Blizzard]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, I'll set this up for those who are so inclined: 

[Damage In Tolland]

Will stopped posting 

[CoastalWx]

That mess of shortwaves is what concerns me. We’ll wait another 24 to even out the jumps. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Will stopped posting 

He’s probably buying a bigger shovel ?

[SnowGoose69]

The Op Euro being the most east at 96-120 is scary...obviously Op runs should not really be used heavily at this range but its something we've rarely seen since its most recent upgrade on stronger systems.  I still am telling people today I more fear a total or near total miss down here than I do this tracking overhead 

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

He’s probably buying a bigger shovel ?

Probably returning his snow blower.

[MJO812]

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

He’s probably buying a bigger shovel ?

Pope’s flock chewed through the transmission lines powering his house. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Probably returning his snow blower.

Packing the chipmunk nest back in it before putting it away.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

On GEFS

I mean If you look at 500mb level for Sunday 0z you can see much less amplification in front of the eastern shortwave on the last run , compared to last nite 

Trough out west coast is shallower and there is a significantly stronger trough N of Texas that prob dampens our system and shoots it out weaker and faster 

[CoastalWx]

The suppression risk in my mind was more to do with this sliding south and being compressed from the north. I didn’t really expect the s/w to attenuate into a mid level queef and have the one behind it playing games. Although it was getting my attention yesterday. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The suppression risk in my mind was more to do with this sliding south and being compressed from the north. I didn’t really expect the s/w to attenuate into a mid level queef and have the one behind it playing games. Although it was getting my attention yesterday. 

Tippy has /was hammering this attenuating home with violence 

[WinterWolf]

18z…gonna 18z. Chill out.  The dreaded Lose and weaken the storm runs have arrived.  It happens with every single storm. Anything is a win at this point, 1-3, or 4-6  is better than the zilch we now have. So I’m good with any of it. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

18z…gonna 18z. Chill out.  The dreaded Lose and weaken the storm runs have arrived.  It happens with every single storm. 

You have to have a little more patience  with having some model discussion when models show something that isn’t jolly . It’s not cancelled , it’s conversation of what is actually happening on the data we look at to track . Yes I know a bunch of people comment along the same lines but that’s the ebb and flow of tracking .

[Patrick-02540]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

18z…gonna 18z. Chill out.  The dreaded Lose and weaken the storm runs have arrived.  It happens with every single storm. Anything is a win at this point, 1-3, or 4-6  is better than the zilch we now have. So I’m good with any of it. 

It's the typical "day 5" loss, followed by a region-crippling blizzard on the NAM at day 3, and then it settles out to be what was forecast at day 6.  That's my bet.  

[ORH_wxman]

That’s an ugly solution but there is a way to still get a decent storm if that trailer catches up like the 18z icon. Or we keep the initial s/w stronger. 

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The suppression risk in my mind was more to do with this sliding south and being compressed from the north. I didn’t really expect the s/w to attenuate into a mid level queef and have the one behind it playing games. Although it was getting my attention yesterday. 

that was one of the risks, for sure. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You have to do better with model discussion when models show something that isn’t jolly . It’s not cancelled , it’s conversation of what is actually happening on the data we look at to track . 

Pickles…I was waiting for this to happen. It happens with every single system.  We were due for some bad runs. Think what you want. That’s my call.  We’ll go through a few of these, then it will improve some come Thursday some time. That’s my call. 18z always goofy. 

[dryslot]

Here i thought was a good omen this morning when i flattened a gray squirrel with my truck.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Tippy has /was hammering this attenuating home with violence 

Yeah I noticed it yesterday, but seemed like enough separation for a moderate deal. I mean look at the 6 hr changes from 12z to 18z. Clearly they saw something. That’s pretty wild. 
 

Like Will said, maybe the second one sharpens a bit and helps out the 2nd half. I would rather my chances be on the first s/w being stronger though. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

It's the typical "day 5" loss, followed by a region-crippling blizzard on the NAM at day 3, and then it settles out to be what was forecast at day 6.  That's my bet.  

Pretty much…happens every single system when you track from 8 days out.  When they pop up at 3-4 days out…then we usually avoid this mid way loss/weakening of systems. 

[kdxken]

15 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Probably returning his snow blower.

Beat the Rush.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Pickles…I was waiting for this to happen. It happens with every single system.  We were due for some bad runs. Think what you want. That’s my call.  We’ll go through a few of these, then it will improve some come Thursday some time. That’s my call. 18z always goofy. 

I was thinking the same thing. I mean aren't the 18Z and 6z The two model runs that tend to be wonky and that we always say pay no attention to? It's also only Tuesday. So people are taking the 18z like we're in trouble, it's definitely a hoot. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Beat the Rush.

Probably trading it in for a broom.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Pickles…I was waiting for this to happen. It happens with every single system.  

Yes we know you were haha. 

After a great run people throw confetti and high five , after a bad run people say WTF . It’s not always sunny in Philadelphia and there is value in discussing why things break weaker and stronger 

Im just having fun and I think you are as well, we shall see how it plays out . Obviously we want some shovel-able snow . I haven’t set any goal posts for accumulations 

[dryslot]

You really can't set any expectations until you get some run to run continuity, I'm not expecting much here anyways unless there's some changes aloft.

[kazimirkai]

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I was thinking the same thing. I mean aren't the 18Z and 6z The two model runs that tend to be wonky and that we always say pay no attention to? It's also only Tuesday. So people are taking the 18z like we're in trouble, it's definitely a hoot. 

Is that the case with the 6z/18z ensembles? It seems like the gefs has been trending weaker for a few runs now.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I was thinking the same thing. I mean aren't the 18Z and 6z The two model runs that tend to be wonky and that we always say pay no attention to? It's also only Tuesday. So people are taking the 18z like we're in trouble, it's definitely a hoot. 

Meh…that’s an old played out narrative for the most part. Historically 00z/12z was more accurate than 06z/18z, but any 06z/18z run tends to be more accurate than the 6hr previous run just because you’re closer to T minus 0.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Yes we know you were haha. 

After a great run people throw confetti and high five , after a bad run people say WTF . It’s not always sunny in Philadelphia 

Im just having fun and I think you are as well, we shall see how it plays out . Obviously we want some shovel-able snow . I haven’t set any goal posts for accumulations 

Agreed about shovelable snow.  But This is always an issue when we track from way out…(8 days).  
 

There’s always gonna be something pop up that wasn’t seen at 7+ days out, but is starting to show up at 4-5 days out(scooter shit streak, another shortwave catching up, or kicking it out, less/more confluence etc etc..).  Certainly Not saying it didn’t look bad, just saying that some things are starting to come into view, that weren’t seen up until now, and this is the result. It’ll be interesting to see how these become resolved. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Is that the case with the 6z/18z ensembles? It seems like the gefs has been trending weaker for a few runs now.

The Met offices run them purely for entertainment ,  it’s sorta like they sit back at noaa and giggle as they pour vodka into the models and see what they print out at 6z/18z

maybe oceanstwx has data on this or Ryan or Will , anyone  in on this or anyone else that has some hard data