Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[mannynyc]

For NYC this could come down to a nowcast. A few degree difference in surface temps or a 50 mile difference in location of the low will have huge effects on the snow falling. Mesoscale models in a few days will be helpful but there would need to be substantial differences in the model runs to change this reality, imo.

[HeadInTheClouds]

56 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

we're also dealing with a single model that at one time was considered great but recently cant seem to get it together...

It's been so meh after the "upgrade". It used to be the king not it's more like Euro trash IMO. 

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

could also drift SE. the ECMWF has an overamped bias

These global models haven’t had much success with the proper placement of the rain-snow line near NYC at the 72-96 hr range. It usually comes down to mesos like the NAM to correctly diagnose the warm tongue from the ESE and the other models have a cold and weak bias with this feature. Unfortunately, the NAM hasn’t been updated since 2017. And several models like the HRRR have had a cold bias. So I hope they can come up with a suitable NAM replacement before retiring the model. 

[Yanksfan]

Just now, bluewave said:

These global models haven’t had much success with the proper placement of the rain-snow line near NYC at the 72-96 hr range. It usually comes down to mesos like the NAM to correctly diagnose the warm tongue from the ESE and the other models have a cold and weak bias with this feature. Unfortunately, the NAM hasn’t been updated since 2017. And several models like the HRRR have had a cold bias. So I hope they can come up with a suitable NAM replacement before retiring the model. 

I’ll follow the Nam but I don’t take it seriously until it’s within 36 hours of game time. The go to model for me is the RGEM.

[snowman19]

47 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Now we jump back to the north trend from the light rate/surface temp debate 

IMO this was never going to be a suppressed storm

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I’ll follow the Nam but I don’t take it seriously until it’s within 36 hours of game time. The go to model for me is the RGEM.

Definitely. They don’t really come into great focus until the shorter range. The globals can show a rain-snow line near the Driscoll bridge days 3-5 that ends up between the George Washington and Tappan Zee bridges in the mesos once under 36 hrs. This is the challenge of living in such a high population area near the ocean. An error rate like this in the Plains isn’t as important since many regions are much more sparsely populated and would go unnoticed. 

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Definitely. They don’t really come into great focus until into the shorter range. The globals can snow a rain-snow line near the Driscoll bridge days 3-5 that ends up between the GW and Tappan Zee in the mesos once under 36 hrs. This is the challenge of living on such a high population area near the ocean. An error rate like this in the Plains isn’t as important since many regions are much more sparsely populated and would go unnoticed. 

It is also a region with varied elevation and a concrete jungle in a very confined space. One naturally affects things. One unnaturally affects things. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

It is also a region with varied elevation and a concrete jungle in a very confined space. One naturally affects things. One unnaturally affects things. 

I liked it much better when the NWS office was in 30 Rock and had the mets going over to the Park to measure snowfall in person. These days the staff at the Park sometimes gets out there too late and the snowfall has melted or settled. It’s not done with the precision of the airport observers. That’s why I think NYC probably got 1 inch like the airports last winter but was under measured. But the below 2” streak looks valid since it’s backed up by the airports which are in the same snow drought.

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

It is also a region with varied elevation and a concrete jungle in a very confined space. One naturally affects things. One unnaturally affects things. 

Did you just finish college 101 philosophy and creative writing?

[Stormlover74]

End of the rgem. Need that low to be 50 miles to the east 

 

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO this was never going to be a suppressed storm

Not true

[mannynyc]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

End of the rgem. Need that low to be 50 miles to the east 

 

Wouldn't look to much into the end of these mesoscale models.

[MJO812]

 Steve d has 4-8 for NYC

[Allsnow]

Icon 6-8 for the area on 10-1 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Spidey sense telling me tonight’s runs may be interesting 

[BoulderWX]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Steve d has 4-8 for NYC

Hahahahaha. Mark it down 1-3”

[Stormlover74]

21 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Wouldn't look to much into the end of these mesoscale models.

I look at everything 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

Hahahahaha. Mark it down 1-3”

Gladly take that at this point. Upton says nada

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Icon 6-8 for the area on 10-1 

It seems like it keeps the snow going well into Sunday.  I wonder if thats when we have a better shot as the low pulls away

[mannynyc]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Icon 6-8 for the area on 10-1 

Looks like it got colder too

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Spidey sense telling me tonight’s runs may be interesting 

If you're tingling and smell something burning that’s just you having a stroke. 

[snowman19]

Not true

The pattern out west is not supportive of suppression

[NittanyWx]

51 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I wish people would stop talking about 287. Most of this forum lives south of 95 and those that don’t live in between 95 and 287. Who cares what 287 gets? They have a completely different climate than us.

Ok, I'll talk about North of the Merritt and North of Tappan Zee just for you

[BoulderWX]

GFS rolling… let’s see what kind of solution it spits out this time

[NittanyWx]

Have been using tonight as the first benchmark for a bit of 'consolidation' in model land on resolving the departing SW strength and also the main system out west fwiw.

 

Otherwise no new thoughts from yday.

[North and West]

If you're tingling and smell something burning that’s just you having a stroke. 

.

[BoulderWX]

Just booked a place in the poconos just in case. Let’s go!!!

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Have been using tonight as the first benchmark for a bit of 'consolidation' in model land on resolving the departing SW strength and also the main system out west fwiw.

 

Otherwise no new thoughts from yday.

Haven't been in this thread -

Hey did you notice the double S/W capture scenario going on?  The Euro really hits that idea hard, and sends this through a NJ model rapid deepener scenario - toward 985 mb passing SE of the Cape and clear attempt at primitive CCB/clip into eastern southern New England.  Fascinating

[BoulderWX]

Through 69, GFS looks like a strung out mess 

 

edit: won’t let me upload image 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

Through 69, GFS looks like a strung out mess 

No