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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

When does that translate for the general weather here (end of Jan?) and what is your confidence level in modeling being accurate for then

Nothing is confident in this winter lol. But yeah right at the tail end of the month. 
 

This winter needs to improve quick or we are high risk of being BN snowfall for sure. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing is confident in this winter lol. But yeah right at the tail end of the month. 
 

This winter needs to improve quick or we are high risk of being BN snowfall for sure. 

I think that’s already favored for most and very likely for those SE of 95

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12 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Why is it laughable?

Because he only posts the maps that don't show the real story. Also, when have you seen the entire country from the west coast to the southern border to the east coast to the northern border all in reds? Is it impossible no, but in this pattern I don't see that being a reality, at least not everywhere.

You should know by this point that qg is a troll. Just in case you are new to the forum..lol

( PS... See Sandstorm94s response 1 page back... That will answer your question as well )

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Pacific does rapidly improve. That’s a good EPO and actually a workable +NAO with it.

In a transitive ( non- linear influence) sense of it ... GOOD!    Because I've become leery over the last 24 hours that this -NAO is causing problems with our two events, the 16th and the 20th.  

There's too much compression in the heights through the integrated manifold, between 70 N and 35N ... over the eastern continent.  The flow is physically speeding up as anything attempts to inject into that region ( you know this - just commiserating here...), and that acceleration is absorbing the native mechanics of any S/W ... If the S/W can't impose it's own forcing in the field, no storm.  Instead, we end up with models being dense ( stupid ...) about the speed of the flow and having to then speed it up. They have to destroy their own cyclogen parametric/resulting design,  as the mid range torpid flows become realistically bombastic in the nearer terms. 

These models are perfect for prick tease as a technology when it comes to this weather model cinema for joy engagement.  LOL

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18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s a chance DFW and BNA pull off a min below 10° before I do.

Not to be a dick ( seriously ) but this has never impressed me so much when that happens.  

As we move from autumns into winters ... often enough the first cold intrusions are provided by a -EPO.  Half of which plumb heights down dramatically W of 100 W. That type of scenario drills cold west first - probably happens more times than we may think (historically), from mid Novies to early January?  

 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be a dick ( seriously ) but this has never impressed me so much when that happens.  

As we move from autumns into winters ... often enough the first cold intrusions are provided by a -EPO.  Half of which plumb heights down dramatically W of 100 W. That type of scenario drills cold west first - probably happens more times than we may think (historically), from mid Novies to early January?  

 

I understand the gist of your point, but disagree in this instance. It’s mid January…not early December. CON snuck an 8° in the other day while I stayed mixed and had a min of 11°, but their latest sub 10° on record is 1/16. 
 

DFW has been below 10° once since 1996. BNA has been below 10° once since 2018.

We’re not talking Amarillo here.

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34 minutes ago, dendrite said:


DFW has been below 10° once since 1996.

As an aside, the low of 2 they put up on 2/16/2021 in today's global climate, and with the massive local growth that's occurred and associated UHI impacts, has to be the most anomalous number in their entire climo record.  Next lowest going forward on the calendar is 10.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is gonna go big this run for 1/19-20

Yeah…dropping a piece of the PV in behind the digging s/w is usually a recipe to go nuclear. It always brings back fond memories for me of March 01.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is gonna go big this run for 1/19-20

So the big question hanging in the room is, will the block end up suppressing this into a mid atlantic storm? Reminds me a bit of the blizzard in 2016 ( I think that was the year)

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