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A decent storm will develop through the northeast USA Sunday Dec 10, 2023, rapidly deepening Monday morning in its departure. Worst expected 5P Sunday-5A Monday.


wdrag
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Please follow all current and future NWS watches, Warnings and statements.  This thread can serve as the one stop shop for both forum participant expectations and observations. 

Already as of Friday afternoon December 8, flood related watches have been issued for a wide area centered on the I-95 corridor with wind damage potential expected to lie east of I95, excepting possibly in isolated severe thunderstorms later Sunday. Wet snowfall accumulations could slow travel in the Poconos northeastward Midnight to Noon Monday morning. 

19Z/8 December Blend of Models snowfall and and rainfall through Monday has been added to show some of the basis of the watches/concerns.  

Wind guidance has decreased during the past couple of days as the cold front and associated low pressure system drift across the NYC subforum late Sunday and intensifies a little slower.   GEFS 18z/8 wind guidance for 50KT gusts as seen through Polar Wx is less than 40% for the eastern tip of LI. This lower wind expectation may also limit coastal flooding to more of a minor event. No matter, there is time for the models to adjust the expected results.

So we have an event...not sure how serious but it will impact travel over our area. Continue monitoring the models, including ensembles and of course NWS products.  820P/8

 

At 851AM Monday December 11 posted review data.  The wind did not work out on 50 knots gusts.  The rain and snow did.  So far, I've seen about 20 streams or thereabouts from southern New England to Philly to either be or forecast to go into minor flood, and one or 2 may go to moderate. Power outages were mostly NYS and ne PA where wet 31-33F snowfall exceeded 4" and wind gusts may have added to power outages.   High Point NJ had 5" at 1500'.    Modeling was overall good... especially the elevation dependent clarity on positive added snowfall. 

 

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  • wdrag changed the title to A decent storm will develop through the northeast USA Sunday Dec 10, 2023, rapidly deepening Monday morning in its departure. Worst expected 5P Sunday-5A Monday.
  • IrishRob17 pinned this topic
NYZ075-078>081-176>179-091000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0001.231210T2100Z-231211T1100Z/
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
333 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...
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I may not be able to add anything to this until tonight. Everything is more or less the same. Am a little doubtful of 50+ wind but it could happen. The snow seems to be getting closer to NYC and I can see an inch or two elevations of southeast NYS/nw NJ but it melts fairly fast after 8AM Monday. At least we know Nino is producing. 

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I may not be able to add anything to this until tonight. Everything is more or less the same. Am a little doubtful of 50+ wind but it could happen. The snow seems to be getting closer to NYC and I can see an inch or two elevations of southeast NYS/nw NJ but it melts fairly fast after 8AM Monday. At least we know Nino is producing. 

THIS is what I was referencing in my previous post about that Nam------> = Thanks 

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57 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I expect this wind event to be similar to the one a few weeks ago when no advisories were issued. I think this time a wind advisory will be issued.

LLJ looks further east, I think OKX hoists an advisory and the winds don't get as high as when we had no advisory last time.

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For us (maybe not E Suffolk) it looks like it's becoming more of a heavy rain vs wind threat. The front and developing low are trending east which means the resulting wind east of the front doesn't get going until later and after the front is past. But the rain is still very much a threat and there could be training heavy rain for a while as the low gets going. And the developing low could keep precip going well behind the front which means snow mixes in NW and especially in the higher elevations. Just about at our latitude a 700mb low closes off on the NAM/GFS which will help precip persist behind the low. 

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18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

For us (maybe not E Suffolk) it looks like it's becoming more of a heavy rain vs wind threat. The front and developing low are trending east which means the resulting wind east of the front doesn't get going until later and after the front is past. But the rain is still very much a threat and there could be training heavy rain for a while as the low gets going. And the developing low could keep precip going well behind the front which means snow mixes in NW and especially in the higher elevations. Just about at our latitude a 700mb low closes off on the NAM/GFS which will help precip persist behind the low. 

High wind watch down to 50 mph now

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

For us (maybe not E Suffolk) it looks like it's becoming more of a heavy rain vs wind threat. The front and developing low are trending east which means the resulting wind east of the front doesn't get going until later and after the front is past. But the rain is still very much a threat and there could be training heavy rain for a while as the low gets going. And the developing low could keep precip going well behind the front which means snow mixes in NW and especially in the higher elevations. Just about at our latitude a 700mb low closes off on the NAM/GFS which will help precip persist behind the low. 

Winds look only for SNE, NAM is tame until it gets to the forks to SNE, whole system has shifted, slightly better chance of a flip to snow but will see

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