December 2023

[SnoSki14]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAO block changes the whole equation. Still gotta make sure it evolves like guidance says, but if it does, then there’s basically no warmup for the Dec 5-15 period. 
 

Safe to say it won't be a Dec 2015 style torch. 

[brooklynwx99]

nice timeframe here with a WB -NAO and 50/50 ULL in place. can see a S/W working under the flow. as the GoA trough retrogrades a bit, then you get a transient +PNA

[brooklynwx99]

THIS is how to run a strong Nino December. -NAO gone wild

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah here’s the 5 day mean EPS Dec 3-8…even some western ridging popping

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

THIS is how to run a strong Nino December. -NAO gone wild

Canonical east-based super-Nino?

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Canonical east-based super-Nino?

yeah. we’re just weenies thinking it could be any different

i think this is the first big hit at that assertion

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah. we’re just weenies thinking it could be any different

i think this is the first big hit at that assertion

This big model guidance shift occurred at a time when the Nino went through a period of more rapid strengthening…wonder if that was just a coincidence or related. 

Also noticed that the MJO forecasts all started shifting into the COD instead of propagating through phases 4/5. 
 

 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This big model guidance shift occurred at a time when the Nino went through a period of more rapid strengthening…wonder if that was just a coincidence or related. 

Also noticed that the MJO forecasts all started shifting into the COD instead of propagating through phases 4/5. 
 

 

the MJO stuff is similar to when there are the phantom moves into 7/8 during a La Niña. this is another good sign

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the MJO stuff is similar to when there are the phantom moves into 7/8 during a La Niña. this is another good sign

Right. A few days ago it looked like a big cycle through 4/5 which would probably torch us for a week or two but now it goes back into the COD after phase 3 and it looks like it might try to re-emerge in 8 by mid-December….if that happens, maybe we cheat our way out of the big torch.

We’ll see. Guidance hasn’t been very consistent this cold season. But like you said, the corrections as we get closer have mostly been colder (same thing happened earlier this month when a 1-2 week torch turned into like 3 days)…it’s the opposite of recent seasons. 

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Right. A few days ago it looked like a big cycle through 4/5 which would probably torch us for a week or two but now it goes back into the COD after phase 3 and it looks like it might try to re-emerge in 8 by mid-December….if that happens, maybe we cheat our way out of the big torch.

We’ll see. Guidance hasn’t been very consistent this cold season. But like you said, the corrections as we get closer have mostly been colder (same thing happened earlier this month when a 1-2 week torch turned into like 3 days)…it’s the opposite of recent seasons. 

yup. one of the bigger things too is how much better the NPAC has looked, so when we do get blocking, it should be infinitely more effective

[George001]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup. one of the bigger things too is how much better the NPAC has looked, so when we do get blocking, it should be infinitely more effective

I’m not saying it’s going to be a full blown torch for the entire east coast, but it looks like an up and in pattern, not a coastal one. Lots of huggers, inland runners, SWFEs, etc. Nothing wrong with that, but with the -PDO and western troughing it’s looking more like a slightly more favorable version of last years pattern. Especially with the extremely mild Atlantic SSTs, I would bet against any snow in eastern mass. Elevation, CNE and NNE is a different story. For me to get excited about snow prospects closer to the coast in December, I need to see 2m temps in the -3 to -2 range and a favorable 500mb pattern inside of 7 days. For early Dec, it’s more -5 to -4.

[brooklynwx99]

25 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m not saying it’s going to be a full blown torch for the entire east coast, but it looks like an up and in pattern, not a coastal one. Lots of huggers, inland runners, SWFEs, etc. Nothing wrong with that, but with the -PDO and western troughing it’s looking more like a slightly more favorable version of last years pattern. Especially with the extremely mild Atlantic SSTs, I would bet against any snow in eastern mass. Elevation, CNE and NNE is a different story. For me to get excited about snow prospects closer to the coast in December, I need to see 2m temps in the -3 to -2 range and a favorable 500mb pattern inside of 7 days. For early Dec, it’s more -5 to -4.

what? this is up and in?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what? this is up and in?

Doesn’t really look like a SWFE pattern either…but some of the airmasses could be a bit marginal in that pattern given the +EPO so I could see interior and elevations being favored. 
 

But the coast definitely has a shot anytime you have blocking like that 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Doesn’t really look like a SWFE pattern either…but some of the airmasses could be a bit marginal in that pattern given the +EPO so I could see interior and elevations being favored. 
 

But the coast definitely has a shot anytime you have blocking like that 

yeah once you’re into early December and you have blocking that anomalous you can pull off snow down to the MA. definitely a coastal pattern though

[CoastalWx]

Yeah there must be a change to the MJO stuff. I’ll have to look. That and the warming from 50-10mb and these intensifying lows moving away from us  are something more new and perhaps helping with the -NAO

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12z gfs for the 5th is basically textbook how you run and early season storm in SNE. Won’t play out like that, but that’s how it’s done 

[stadiumwave]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

This big model guidance shift occurred at a time when the Nino went through a period of more rapid strengthening…wonder if that was just a coincidence or related. 

Also noticed that the MJO forecasts all started shifting into the COD instead of propagating through phases 4/5. 
 

 

 

I truly think this year, this Nino strengthening is more helpful than a fading Nino would be; especially with Nina looking atmospheric hangover signs at times. 

So I can't help but think the recent strengthening may be the culprit the the model change, as you said.

I can't bite yet because I'm sooooo leary of winter season model performance in the last 5 years.

[Snowcrazed71]

4 hours ago, George001 said:

I’m not saying it’s going to be a full blown torch for the entire east coast, but it looks like an up and in pattern, not a coastal one. Lots of huggers, inland runners, SWFEs, etc. Nothing wrong with that, but with the -PDO and western troughing it’s looking more like a slightly more favorable version of last years pattern. Especially with the extremely mild Atlantic SSTs, I would bet against any snow in eastern mass. Elevation, CNE and NNE is a different story. For me to get excited about snow prospects closer to the coast in December, I need to see 2m temps in the -3 to -2 range and a favorable 500mb pattern inside of 7 days. For early Dec, it’s more -5 to -4.

Where did George go and who took over his body??? It's like the Anti-George now...lol

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

12z gfs for the 5th is basically textbook how you run and early season storm in SNE. Won’t play out like that, but that’s how it’s done 

Can we see it ( just for shits and giggles )

[UnitedWx]

15 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Where did George go and who took over his body??? It's like the Anti-George now...lol

It's pre-season... George has yet to get frustrated 

[George001]

If it was Feb and the models looked like this I would be going big. In early December I’m betting on climo, the extremely mild Atlantic SSTs, the -PDO, and the raw strength of the nino winning out. December typically sucks in coastal SNE especially during ninos. Even in our good stronger ninos, we got hit in Jan-Feb not Dec. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah there must be a change to the MJO stuff. I’ll have to look. That and the warming from 50-10mb and these intensifying lows moving away from us  are something more new and perhaps helping with the -NAO

I've been saying at all fall....stop being afraid of el Nino....when the forcing sets up where it has, it's your friend, not foe... ignore the silly crap from Webber and Roundy about how the vp doesn't matter. This is why.

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

If it was Feb and the models looked like this I would be going big. In early December I’m betting on climo, the extremely mild Atlantic SSTs, the -PDO, and the raw strength of the nino winning out. December typically sucks in coastal SNE especially during ninos. Even in our good stronger ninos, we got hit in Jan-Feb not Dec. 

2009 says hi

[CoastalWx]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've been saying at all fall....atop being afraid of el Nino....when the forcing aets up where it has, it's your friend, not foe... ignore the silly crap from Webber and Roundy about how the vp doesn't matter. This is why.

Of course it matters lol. Roundy of all people should know.

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1728023524327993358?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[CoastalWx]

It looks like after the PNA starts rising (it becomes negative to start December) we may start to see some opportunities show up. Both GEFS and EPS turn more favorable after the 5th.

[Spanks45]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It looks like after the PNA starts rising (it becomes negative to start December) we may start to see some opportunities show up. Both GEFS and EPS turn more favorable after the 5th.

6 GEFS look pretty good after day 10.....at least the blocking up near Greenland is inside of day 10 now

[dendrite]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1728023524327993358?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Crap. He sees a grinch on NYE too?

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, George001 said:

If it was Feb and the models looked like this I would be going big. In early December I’m betting on climo, the extremely mild Atlantic SSTs, the -PDO, and the raw strength of the nino winning out. December typically sucks in coastal SNE especially during ninos. Even in our good stronger ninos, we got hit in Jan-Feb not Dec. 

I feel as though you have done a great job of learning and toning down your enthusiasm, but it seems to me that you are now overcompensating in the other direction. We are probably going to see a significant snowfall right to the coast this December if that modeled pattern materializes. December typically doesn't feature a negative NAO during the month of December in Ninos.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

6 GEFS look pretty good after day 10.....at least the blocking up near Greenland is inside of day 10 now

Yeah. I think once the Pacific starts to get better we have more of an opportunity in SNE and coastal areas. The pattern that supports milder weather is there, but the blocking is new. So once we get rid of the crap airmass in Canada, we’ll have a shot.