weatherwiz Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 December-January 1965-1966 is what I was thinking of. Ray's favorite analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 if we get that -NAO, it bodes well for the rest of the winter. El Ninos with -NAO Decembers looked like this for Jan / Feb: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 That is also similar to the February-March means of 1914-1915, 1957-1958!!!, 1968-1969 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2023 Author Share Posted November 22, 2023 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I hope. The recycled 850 0C temps get old lol. Jan 2003 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2023 Author Share Posted November 22, 2023 30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That is also similar to the February-March means of 1914-1915, 1957-1958!!!, 1968-1969 1957 and 1965 were the two best ENSO analogs...they were quite the focus in my work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jan 2003 Let’s repeat Dec 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2023 Author Share Posted November 22, 2023 46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: December-January 1965-1966 is what I was thinking of. Ray's favorite analog Another one of my favorite analogs also featured a PV disruption around that time frame, 1986-1987..different Pacific look, though....1986-1987 has the same issue that I told you 1957-1958 had, though it is a better polar analog IMO. Primary Polar Analogs: 1965-1966, 1986-1987, 2002-2003, 2004-2005 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Fuck Webb. I know that’s not professional, but give me a break. He is such a tool bag. Grade A craftsman tool chest. 3 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Fuck Webb. I know that’s not professional, but give me a break. He is such a tool bag. Grade A craftsman tool chest. but! but! this is obviously acting like a canonical event! there could be a PDII redux in December and he would find a way to spin it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Fuck Webb. I know that’s not professional, but give me a break. He is such a tool bag. Grade A craftsman tool chest. Wasn’t he just trolling the winter crew on Twitter a week ago about a blowtorch/snowless December? This type of discourse is what keeps me from doing wx Twitter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 some of these maps being posted look like last years December pattern. I like seeing the -NAO, but I’m not buying in unless the pacific cooperates. Just not cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Just now, George001 said: some of these maps being posted look like last years December pattern. I like seeing the -NAO, but I’m not buying in unless the pacific cooperates. Just not cold enough the fact that the -NAO is showing up at all is the important part. also, we shouldn't have a strong Nina SE ridge influence like we did last year 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the fact that the -NAO is showing up at all is the important part. also, we shouldn't have a strong Nina SE ridge influence like we did last year It could work out, but I heard the same things last December. I fell for it and bought in last time, I’m not falling for it this time. Especially with the really warm ocean temps im not expecting much of anything for my area in December. Yes it’s a strong nino and not a Nina, but strong ninos especially -PDO ones have their own set of issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, George001 said: It could work out, but I heard the same things last December. I fell for it and bought in last time, I’m not falling for it this time. Especially with the really warm ocean temps im not expecting much of anything for my area in December. last year had a great December pattern. roll the dice with that look and you'll cash in 8/10 times... just didn't happen last year, what can you do 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 The western trough isn’t nearly as deep as last December 10-20th. Also the NAO block is further north. Doesn’t guarantee anything but both of those aspects were part of the reason last December failed to give us a prolific event. You always want to see blocking showing up early since it often repeats itself later in winter. I’ll want to see this on multiple model runs though before believing it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2023 Author Share Posted November 22, 2023 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wasn’t he just trolling the winter crew on Twitter a week ago about a blowtorch/snowless December? This type of discourse is what keeps me from doing wx Twitter. I just do it to gather info..especially when doing my Outlooks...but I seldom engage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Wasn’t he just trolling the winter crew on Twitter a week ago about a blowtorch/snowless December? This type of discourse is what keeps me from doing wx Twitter. Yeah. He was going full December torch because a 50 sq mile of the Pacific rose .2C 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2023 Author Share Posted November 23, 2023 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah. He was going full December torch because a 50 sq mile of the Pacific rose .2C I am more interested in how he responds once it becomes clear that he is wrong. You find out who the real forecasters are when they miss one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 The December relaxation period is actually trending less problematic with each run. NAO ftw. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 hour ago, weathafella said: The December relaxation period is actually trending less problematic with each run. NAO ftw. Yeah it was good to see the -NAO not only showing up again, but the pattern got even colder than the 12z run. I think we’d all roll the dice with that look….still a lot of bust potential given this pattern just started showing up, but it’s certainly a positive trend 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 But what day is the Grinch? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it was good to see the -NAO not only showing up again, but the pattern got even colder than the 12z run. I think we’d all roll the dice with that look….still a lot of bust potential given this pattern just started showing up, but it’s certainly a positive trend Locking in 12/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Locking in 12/8 Ugh. Army Navy game is in Foxboro. One of those times the fix is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 12/8 on gfs now. Wish we could lock it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: 12/8 on gfs now. Wish we could lock it. 12/5 on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: 12/5 on 12z I meant 12/5 haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: 12/8 on gfs now. Wish we could lock it. 12Z Op says what mild up? Pretty cold run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 20 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: 12Z Op says what mild up? Pretty cold run. NAO block changes the whole equation. Still gotta make sure it evolves like guidance says, but if it does, then there’s basically no warmup for the Dec 5-15 period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: NAO block changes the whole equation. Still gotta make sure it evolves like guidance says, but if it does, then there’s basically no warmup for the Dec 5-15 period. Lets just hope the geese get on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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