December 2023

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Agreed, I'm still feeling 1957-1958 vibes. The signals we're starting to see for December are quite encouraging. what I would really hate to see are signals of a strengthening and dominating PV, which nothing has really suggested. Obviously we'll see some seasonal strengthening, but if the PV fails to become established moving into or through first half of December...I expect blocking begins to set in and we're off to the races as we get a much more favorable VP over the CONUS. 

the SPV is strong now, but it lessens to normal strength as we go on... normal is fine, as the SPV and TPV don't have to be coupled all the time

[40/70 Benchmark]

Watch how whomever is ultimately wrong reacts...any equivocation or moving of the goals posts should be followed by a credibility drain.

[mreaves]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just saying, if we do indeed get that look in late December, it's off to the races IMO. can't think of a moderate / strong / super Nino that had a good pattern early to not continue it later in the winter

the ones that started off with a good pattern were often prolific. 2002 and 2009 are the most prominent examples. of course, we will need to see if this is voodoo or not

Be careful, we don't want some 15 year old in Virginia getting upset because it doesn't snow down there.

[brooklynwx99]

ECMWF extended really dropped the strength of the SPV compared to yesterday... ends up weaker than average for most of December now

[WeatherX]

So winter “might” begin earlier in February or later in January?


.

[CoastalWx]

32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ECMWF extended really dropped the strength of the SPV compared to yesterday... ends up weaker than average for most of December now

50mb has perturbed a bit. I focus on that. That looks to go towards Siberia a bit as a warming ensues following the pattern at lower altitudes. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

50mb has perturbed a bit. I focus on that. That looks to go towards Siberia a bit as a warming ensues following the pattern at lower altitudes. 

yeah it looks like models are picking up on heat flux. would like to see this signal push into the medium range

[CoastalWx]

11 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah it looks like models are picking up on heat flux. would like to see this signal push into the medium range

Seems to be in tandem with 500mb or close to it. So that’s a good signal for a milder period. 

[Ginx snewx]

Pete with 4 new out in the Berks

[UnitedWx]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pete with 4 new out in the Berks

I had 1.75 in Westfield. Quite the winter look on the drive in this a.m. until I got into Granby CT. Nothing from the center south

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed, I'm still feeling 1957-1958 vibes. The signals we're starting to see for December are quite encouraging. what I would really hate to see are signals of a strengthening and dominating PV, which nothing has really suggested. Obviously we'll see some seasonal strengthening, but if the PV fails to become established moving into or through first half of December...I expect blocking begins to set in and we're off to the races as we get a much more favorable VP over the CONUS. 

I don't think this season will be quite as blocky and that season also had a strongly +PDO, but its a great ENSO analog....personally, I like 1965 better as a general analog.

[ineedsnow]

3 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

I had 1.75 in Westfield. Quite the winter look on the drive in this a.m. until I got into Granby CT. Nothing from the center south

just looked at the westfield webcam and its all gone now in the center

[UnitedWx]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

just looked at the westfield webcam and its all gone now in the center

Not surprised at that... we had a lot of rain come through between 7 and 10 a.m. I'm working in Canton CT this morning, they had about the same amount but it's gone now. Up to 44 degrees

[ORH_wxman]

EPS gone wild with -NAO on 12z run

 

[weatherwiz]

That's almost like what I'm expecting to see for January in the mean, just a bit less extreme. 

[weatherwiz]

If I could weenie myself I would

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If I could weenie myself I would

Quote yourself and reply with a

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS gone wild with -NAO on 12z run

 

If that verifies, you can probably cancel the canonical el Nino claims.

[ORH_wxman]

Goes right to the end of the run

 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Quote yourself and reply with a

All in all I think we're definitely backing away from the idea of a typical EL Nino December. It certainly looks like we may be on the "milder" side to start but I think we're going to see a transition occur in December and not January. Personally, from a work perspective I hope we can keep the country quiet through Christmas but I have a hunch second week of December things begin to change. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If that verifies, you can probably cancel the canonical el Nino claims.

Looks Ninoish for sure in the PAC. No real cold though. 

[CoastalWx]

Lets get that in Feb. 

[SJonesWX]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If I could weenie myself I would

don't worry, I got you covered

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks Ninoish for sure in the PAC. No real cold though. 

I feel like we want that GOA vortex to be a bit farther north and west...correct?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I feel like we want that GOA vortex to be a bit farther north and west...correct?

I think you lose the -NAO if you do that. Might be worse. It's an interesting pattern though for sure. It's not a real warm look. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I feel like we want that GOA vortex to be a bit farther north and west...correct?

You want it out near the Aleutians. 
 

But even though that pattern isn’t cold, it’s likely serviceable for interior threats. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think you lose the -NAO if you do that. Might be worse. It's an interesting pattern though for sure. It's not a real warm look. 

Maybe we can pin the PV in SE Canada for a bit. Been a while since we had that type of luck…it’s actually how we stayed cold in mid-Dec 1995 when the rest of the country went torch before PAC reloaded.  

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think you lose the -NAO if you do that. Might be worse. It's an interesting pattern though for sure. It's not a real warm look. 

 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You want it out near the Aleutians. 
 

But even though that pattern isn’t cold, it’s likely serviceable for interior threats. 

Thanks! I've been trying to spend a ton of time analyzing composites in the NPAC and understand how configurations help shape the Arctic domain. I was trying to recall off the top of my head seeing a few EL Nino events where the GOA vortex became quite displaced south and east was good or bad for us. My relocation was it was bad as it promoted better ridging potential, but perhaps in this case the NAO is so overpowering it helps keep the ridging west a bit. This look though reminds me of a few Nino events...have to go back and see which ones.

Well that would go with the notion where interior usually cashes in early on in the Nino's and then costal areas cash in later. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

Thanks! I've been trying to spend a ton of time analyzing composites in the NPAC and understand how configurations help shape the Arctic domain. I was trying to recall off the top of my head seeing a few EL Nino events where the GOA vortex became quite displaced south and east was good or bad for us. My relocation was it was bad as it promoted better ridging potential, but perhaps in this case the NAO is so overpowering it helps keep the ridging west a bit. This look though reminds me of a few Nino events...have to go back and see which ones.

Well that would go with the notion where interior usually cashes in early on in the Nino's and then costal areas cash in later. 

Yeah move that due west like Will said for a more +PNA. Up towards AK is a death kiss.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe we can pin the PV in SE Canada for a bit. Been a while since we had that type of luck…it’s actually how we stayed cold in mid-Dec 1995 when the rest of the country went torch before PAC reloaded.  

I hope. The recycled 850 0C temps get old lol.