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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Surface temps not getting out of the 30’s a pretty impressive to end November 

It will be colder than the lowest November maxes last few years. But the 2019 and 2018 low maxes for the month of November at 34 and 28 should be safe.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Lowest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2023 44 6
2022 40 0
2021 39 0
2020 36 0
2019 34 0
2018 28 0
2017 38 0
2016 41 0
2015 44 0
2014 36 0
2013 30 0
2012 40 0
2011 46 0
2010 42 0
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5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

January like temps for today and early to mid week..

 

@Brian5671 can finally stop posting the models keep pushing the cold back 

haha.   Finally.  But looks like a mid month warmup on tap.   Maybe we can get snow after mid month this go around vs years like 2020 where it was all washed away by xmas warmth

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Clouds will increase tomorrow and it will turn milder. A system will bring rain to the region tomorrow night into Monday. Most areas should see 0.25"-0.75" of rain.

The remainder of November will should be generally colder than normal with a reinforcing shot of cold air for Tuesday into Wednesday. Some flurries are possible on Tuesday or Wednesday. However, no Arctic blasts appear likely. Conditions should also be mainly dry through the remainder of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around November 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.70°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter as the current East-based event completes its evolution into a basinwide El Niño.

Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar ENSO/PDO conditions: December 1972.

The SOI was not available today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.114 today.

On November 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.140 (RMM). The November 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.470 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (1.9° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019.

 

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55 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam back to drencher for tomorrow night

 

trend-nam-2023112518-f048.qpf_acc-imp.us_ne.gif

Like I said yesterday....gonna be an interesting winter to forecast.  Guidance has been flip floppy for months on most major precip events around here. Sometimes even within 24 hours and that includes the EURO.

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