November 2023

[TriPol]

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro/GFS op shows how Atlantic blocking doesn't mean squat when the Pacific is trash. 

I expect little to no snows in December. Pattern looks like garbage 

The -PDO is a death sentence here

I'm calling for a major snowstorm on December 5 to give CPK 12 inches.

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro/GFS op shows how Atlantic blocking doesn't mean squat when the Pacific is trash. 

I expect little to no snows in December. Pattern looks like garbage 

The -PDO is a death sentence here

I’ve been super busy the past week, would you mind summarizing what’s off right now? Haven’t really been able to start diving into the models and teles consistently yet. I do recall hearing the -PDO looked like it was spiking again?

Thanks man. 

[SnoSki14]

Not optimistic at all. Looks like the same garbage we've seen for years now. 

Pacific jet on steroids. Expect 4 months of March essentially so 40s & 50s for highs and lows near freezing with lots of clouds & rain. 

Unless the Pacific changes it's going to be the same shitty Nina like winter pattern. No amount of Atlantic blocking is going to make a difference. 

Bluewave is right on the money as always. 

[Allsnow]

That was a early meltdown by @SnoSki14

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of November are averaging 40degs.(36/44) or -4.

Month to date is 48.7[-0.4].    November should end at 46.6[-1.5].

Reached 53 at 3pm. yesterday.

Today: Steady T then falling to 33 by tomorrow AM, wind nw.-breezy, decreasing clouds.

48*(63%RH) at 6am.  Reached  50* at Noon.    49* at 3pm.    43* at 6pm.     40* at  7pm.

 

[wdrag]

Anyway,  a Dec thread is posted for the Dec commentary. Right now,  I continue to hope NYC CP can accomplish its first freeze and harmless passing flurry by Wednesday of this week.  The freeze potential tonight might be shaky but NAM BL might be cold enough as quietly strong CAA develops the middle of this afternoon over our NYC sub forum (grinding south from upper NYS now).

Flurry risk NYC CP ASOS... I think continues for this coming Tuesday with -11C at 850MB overhead as a cold trough amplifies over the the northeast USA.  Lake effect potential for large amounts looks pretty good in western sections of NYS..some of that is sure to spill over the Appalachians into at least the I84 corridor as flurries and a couple of ops have flurries LI and NNJ early this coming week. 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Anyway,  a Dec thread is posted for the Dec commentary. Right now,  I continue to hope NYC CP can accomplish its first freeze and harmless passing flurry by Wednesday of this week.  The freeze potential tonight might be shaky but NAM BL might be cold enough as quietly strong CAA develops the middle of this afternoon over our NYC sub forum (grinding south from upper NYS now).

Flurry risk NYC CP ASOS... I think continues for this coming Tuesday with -11C at 850MB overhead as a cold trough amplifies over the the northeast USA.  Lake effect potential for large amounts looks pretty good in western sections of NYS..some of that is sure to spill over the Appalachians into at least the I84 corridor as flurries and a couple of ops have flurries LI and NNJ early this coming week. 

Yeah, looks like the model blend has the first possible freeze of the season in NYC for tomorrow morning.

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

This is a good sign for El nino forcing. Unlike prior years we look to be looping through the favorable phases.

As long as we avoid an El nino like 97/98 we may be in good shape.

[EastonSN+]

[Allsnow]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, looks like the model blend has the first possible freeze of the season in NYC for tomorrow morning.

 

 

 

Got down to 33 Tuesday morning under less CAA then tonight…

 

I think NYC will do it tonight but the harder freeze will wait until Tuesday morning 

[SACRUS]

 

53 yesterday here.  Nice day

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not optimistic at all. Looks like the same garbage we've seen for years now. 

Pacific jet on steroids. Expect 4 months of March essentially so 40s & 50s for highs and lows near freezing with lots of clouds & rain. 

Unless the Pacific changes it's going to be the same shitty Nina like winter pattern. No amount of Atlantic blocking is going to make a difference. 

Bluewave is right on the money as always. 

[SACRUS]

 

33 last night and now to 40 with clouds.  Back and forth cooler next 2 day warmer Sun/Mon then cooler Tue - Fri next week before moderation to open Dec warmer than normal.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 75 (1979)
NYC: 73 (1979)
LGA 68 (1999)


Lows:

 

EWR: 20 (1989)
NYC: 14 (1880)
LGA:  22 (1956)

 

Historical:

 

1812 - Southwesterly winds of hurricane force sank ships and unroofed buildings at Philadelphia and New York City. (David Ludlum)

1863 - The battle above the clouds was fought on Lookout Mountain near Chattanooga. Pre-frontal clouds obscured the upper battle- field aiding a Union victory. (David Ludlum)

1950 - The temperature at Chicago, IL, dipped to 2 below zero to equal their record for the month established on the 29th in 1872. On the first of the month that year Chicago established a record high for November with a reading of 81 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1982 - Hurricane Iwa lashed the Hawaiian Islands of Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu with high winds and surf. Winds gusting to 120 mph caused extensive shoreline damage. Damage totalled 150 million dollars on Kauai, and fifty million dollars on Oahu. The peak storm surge on the south shore was six to eight feet. It marked the first time in 25 years that Hawaii had been affected by a hurricane. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in southern Missouri, southeast Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. Flooding was reported in Greene County of southwestern Missouri. Springfield MO was drenched with more than six inches of rain. Thunderstorms over southern Texas produced more than eight inches of rain in Caldwell County and Hayes County, and thunderstorms over south central Oklahoma produced one inch hail at Temple twice within an hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure brought heavy snow and high winds to the Northern and Central Rockies. Snowfall totals in Colorado ranged up to 40 inches at Wolf Creek Pass, with 27 inches falling in 24 hours. Telluride CO received 32 inches of snow, and winds atop Mines Peak gusted to 95 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[vegan_edible]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

That was a early meltdown by @SnoSki14

tryptophan hangover induced meltdown

[North and West]

That was a early meltdown by [mention=1964]SnoSki14[/mention]

It’s after Thanksgiving today, so we’re now allowed to officially cancel winter.


.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

It’s after Thanksgiving today, so we’re now allowed to officially cancel winter.


.

Black Friday winter cancel extravaganza. Take 50% off all snowfall forecasts 

[eduggs]

15 day 500mb anomaly charts are pure fantasy. Even if they weren't wildly inaccurate and we could take them for future reality, favorable anomalies don't necessarily mean snow. We need successive run, multi-model ensemble snow threats in the 7-10 range, at minimum, to justify excitement. 

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

tryptophan hangover induced meltdown

Eggnog too strong? 

[Stormlover74]

Models all over the place for Sunday night. Cmc gives us 1 to 2"+. Euro <.25" west of city

[MANDA]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models all over the place for Sunday night. Cmc gives us 1 to 2"+. Euro <.25" west of city

Going to be a fun Winter. 

[Allsnow]

47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models all over the place for Sunday night. Cmc gives us 1 to 2"+. Euro <.25" west of city

12z euro over .50 now 

[Allsnow]

Euro has upper teens low 20’s for the area Tuesday morning 

[psv88]

Nice day to put up the outdoor holiday decorations etc 

[wdrag]

And back to Nov, where reality is more likely to be predictable the first week or so. BGM temps at 1-2P were subfreezing but our air may be arriving more down the Hud Valley. Let's get this 32 or colder NYC CP overwith either tomorrow morning or Tue-Wed.

Passing harmless CP ASOS flurry chance continues Tuesday.  

12z EC for Thursday?  what's that mixed stuff in the area.  

I don't think ithese are zero chance of occurring. Trying to take this one miniscule seasonable option at a time. I'll worry about Dec once we get cyclically repeated event. 

coolwx links have returned. 

[Allsnow]

Nws forecast Will end the growing season in NYC 

[the_other_guy]

I can’t wait for the next warm month so I can hear you guys talk about how much you wish for a -2 month like this one will be

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

Good night for the Tree!

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I can’t wait for the next warm month so I can hear you guys talk about how much you wish for a -2 month like this one will be

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

Good night for the Tree!

Another endless summer pattern in September or October transitioning to a little below average in November. 
 

[donsutherland1]

Tonight will be fair and unseasonably cold. New York City will very likely see its first freeze of the season. After a brisk but dry day tomorrow, clouds will increase on Sunday and it will turn somewhat milder. A system will bring rain to the region Sunday night into Monday. Most areas should see 0.50"-1.00" of rain. Philadelphia will likely see lesser amounts.

The remainder of November will should be generally colder than normal with a reinforcing shot of cold air near the end of the month. However, no Arctic blasts appear likely. Conditions should also be mainly dry through the remainder of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around November 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.70°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter as the current East-based event completes its evolution into a basinwide El Niño.

Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar ENSO/PDO conditions: December 1972.

The SOI was not available today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.019 today.

On November 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.570 (RMM). The November 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.470 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (1.9° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019.

 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

I can’t wait for the next warm month so I can hear you guys talk about how much you wish for a -2 month like this one will be

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

Good night for the Tree!

-2 in November isn’t bad…we’ve had many nice days and very little rain