October 2023

[SACRUS]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am very close to New Haven Tweed airport. So my thermometer reads very close to what the ASOS shows. The airport is actually in a lower dip from some small hills to the west. So I made it down to 41° while HVN was 40°. Not bad for a home set up vs expensive ASOS. It’s interesting how quickly the temperatures drop here once the sun goes down especially on good radiational cooling nights. I like to use the Bishops Orchard Wunderground site in Guilford for readings that are a little more inland from me. They were 38° this morning. They also make the best apple pies I have ever had if you are in the area.

BW  - would you have a list of the first freeze (32 and<) for the past years?  See Nov 18 in 22.

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I can’t help but feel a bit dejected at how difficult is has become to sustain below-normal temperatures during our cold season.  
 

I’d be thrilled to be wrong, but I have a hunch that, even if it won’t be quite as bad this upcoming winter as it was last winter (how could it be?), we winter weather lovers are gonna be fighting an uphill battle once again.

Yeah, the better radiational cooling at night makes it cooler here relative to my old place back on Long Island. But it still has been the 4th warmest October to date. I guess the good news is that even averaging around 60° for October, it  will still give you colder feeling mornings.
 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 23	Missing Count
1	2021-10-23	63.0	0
2	2007-10-23	62.8	0
3	2017-10-23	61.9	0
4	2023-10-23	60.4	0
5	2020-10-23	60.0	0
-	1949-10-23	60.0	0

[psv88]

37 this morning. Coldest temp on this date at my location since I moved here 8 years ago

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

BW  - would you have a list of the first freeze (32 and<) for the past years?  See Nov 18 in 22.

These are the first freeze dates across the entire area for the last 10 years so nobody gets left out.

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-01 (2020)		10-31 (2020)		215
Mean	03-29		11-16		232
Maximum	04-16 (2014)		12-09 (2016)		243
2022	03-30 (2022)	29	11-19 (2022)	31	233
2021	04-03 (2021)	32	11-23 (2021)	32	233
2020	03-01 (2020)	25	10-31 (2020)	32	243
2019	03-18 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	29	234
2018	04-09 (2018)	32	11-14 (2018)	32	218
2017	03-23 (2017)	23	11-10 (2017)	25	231
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	29	242
2015	04-01 (2015)	32	11-24 (2015)	32	236
2014	04-16 (2014)	31	11-18 (2014)	24	215
2013	03-23 (2013)	32	11-12 (2013)	31	233

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-24 (2017)		10-19 (2015)		196
Mean	04-05		11-09		218
Maximum	04-17 (2020)		11-28 (2016)		234
2022	03-30 (2022)	29	11-18 (2022)	32	232
2021	04-03 (2021)	30	11-24 (2021)	32	234
2020	04-17 (2020)	32	10-31 (2020)	32	196
2019	04-01 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	29	220
2018	04-11 (2018)	32	11-10 (2018)	32	212
2017	03-24 (2017)	31	11-10 (2017)	25	230
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	11-28 (2016)	32	231
2015	03-29 (2015)	25	10-19 (2015)	31	203
2014	04-16 (2014)	31	11-08 (2014)	32	205
2013	04-04 (2013)	31	11-04 (2013)	32	213

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	04-02 (2019)		10-18 (2015)		173
Mean	04-16		10-27		194
Maximum	05-10 (2020)		11-11 (2017)		215
2022	04-18 (2022)	29	10-30 (2022)	30	194
2021	04-03 (2021)	28	11-04 (2021)	29	214
2020	05-10 (2020)	31	10-31 (2020)	28	173
2019	04-02 (2019)	27	11-02 (2019)	30	213
2018	04-11 (2018)	26	10-19 (2018)	32	190
2017	04-09 (2017)	31	11-11 (2017)	20	215
2016	04-10 (2016)	29	10-26 (2016)	30	198
2015	04-25 (2015)	30	10-18 (2015)	28	175
2014	04-21 (2014)	30	10-20 (2014)	31	181
2013	04-22 (2013)	32	10-25 (2013)	30	185

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	04-17 (2016)		09-21 (2020)		122
Mean	05-01		10-14		164
Maximum	05-21 (2020)		11-03 (2021)		192
2022	05-01 (2022)	32	10-09 (2022)	31	160
2021	04-24 (2021)	31	11-03 (2021)	29	192
2020	05-21 (2020)	32	09-21 (2020)	31	122
2019	04-29 (2019)	28	10-05 (2019)	30	158
2018	05-01 (2018)	32	10-18 (2018)	31	169
2017	05-04 (2017)	32	10-17 (2017)	30	165
2016	04-17 (2016)	31	-	-	-
2015	04-26 (2015)	28	10-17 (2015)	27	173
2014	04-25 (2014)	30	10-20 (2014)	32	177
2013	05-14 (2013)	29	10-21 (2013)	32	159

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	04-23 (2021)		10-05 (2019)		153
Mean	05-03		10-15		165
Maximum	05-21 (2020)		11-03 (2021)		193
2022	05-01 (2022)	30	10-08 (2022)	32	159
2021	04-23 (2021)	27	11-03 (2021)	27	193
2020	05-21 (2020)	31	-	-	-
2019	04-29 (2019)	30	10-05 (2019)	30	158
2018	04-24 (2018)	30	-	-	-
2017	05-11 (2017)	32	10-17 (2017)	31	158
2016	05-10 (2016)	32	10-11 (2016)	30	153
2015	04-26 (2015)	29	10-17 (2015)	29	173
2014	04-28 (2014)	31	10-12 (2014)	32	166
2013	05-14 (2013)	31	10-23 (2013)	30	161

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-30 (2017)		10-18 (2015)		173
Mean	04-16		11-03		200
Maximum	05-09 (2020)		11-14 (2022)
2022	04-18 (2022)	32	11-14 (2022)	30	209
2021	04-03 (2021)	28	11-04 (2021)	32	214
2020	05-09 (2020)	32	10-30 (2020)	32	173
2019	04-29 (2019)	32	11-02 (2019)	32	186
2018	04-11 (2018)	28	10-26 (2018)	32	197
2017	03-30 (2017)	29	11-10 (2017)	23	224
2016	04-13 (2016)	31	11-12 (2016)	31	212
2015	04-12 (2015)	32	10-18 (2015)	29	188
2014	04-18 (2014)	31	11-08 (2014)	30	203
2013	04-21 (2013)	32	11-04 (2013)	28	196

 

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-01 (2020)		11-08 (2019)		215
Mean	03-27		11-27		245
Maximum	04-16 (2014)		01-04 (2016)		281
2022	03-30 (2022)	30	11-19 (2022)	32	233
2021	04-02 (2021)	29	12-19 (2021)	31	260
2020	03-01 (2020)	26	12-08 (2020)	32	281
2019	03-13 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	31	239
2018	04-02 (2018)	32	11-15 (2018)	30	226
2017	03-23 (2017)	26	11-10 (2017)	27	231
2016	04-06 (2016)	32	12-09 (2016)	32	246
2015	03-29 (2015)	27	01-04 (2016)	15	280
2014	04-16 (2014)	32	11-18 (2014)	24	215
2013	03-22 (2013)	30	11-12 (2013)	32	234

 

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-16 (2020)		10-31 (2020)		212
Mean	04-02		11-16		227
Maximum	04-16 (2014)		12-09 (2016)		242
2022	03-30 (2022)	27	11-19 (2022)	32	233
2021	04-03 (2021)	31	11-23 (2021)	32	233
2020	03-16 (2020)	32	10-31 (2020)	32	228
2019	04-02 (2019)	31	11-08 (2019)	29	219
2018	04-11 (2018)	31	11-12 (2018)	30	214
2017	03-24 (2017)	32	11-10 (2017)	25	230
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	31	242
2015	03-29 (2015)	27	11-24 (2015)	31	239
2014	04-16 (2014)	32	11-15 (2014)	30	212
2013	04-04 (2013)	32	11-12 (2013)	32	221

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-16 (2020)		10-26 (2013)		204
Mean	04-02		11-11		222
Maximum	04-18 (2014)		11-23 (2015)		234
2022	03-30 (2022)	28	11-15 (2022)	32	229
2021	04-03 (2021)	30	11-17 (2021)	31	227
2020	03-16 (2020)	32	10-31 (2020)	32	228
2019	04-02 (2019)	27	11-08 (2019)	29	219
2018	04-11 (2018)	30	11-11 (2018)	32	213
2017	03-24 (2017)	27	11-10 (2017)	26	230
2016	04-10 (2016)	32	11-21 (2016)	32	224
2015	04-02 (2015)	29	11-23 (2015)	32	234
2014	04-18 (2014)	32	11-15 (2014)	29	210
2013	04-04 (2013)	29	10-26 (2013)	31	204

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-30 (2022)		10-19 (2015)		176
Mean	04-09		11-03		207
Maximum	04-25 (2015)		11-15 (2022)		229
2022	03-30 (2022)	25	11-15 (2022)	29	229
2021	04-04 (2021)	32	11-06 (2021)	31	215
2020	04-19 (2020)	31	10-31 (2020)	29	194
2019	04-02 (2019)	26	11-04 (2019)	32	215
2018	04-11 (2018)	26	10-22 (2018)	32	193
2017	03-30 (2017)	32	11-10 (2017)	26	224
2016	04-10 (2016)	32	11-14 (2016)	32	217
2015	04-25 (2015)	32	10-19 (2015)	29	176
2014	04-16 (2014)	32	11-08 (2014)	31	205
2013	04-07 (2013)	31	10-26 (2013)	32	201

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-24 (2017)		10-19 (2015)		189
Mean	04-06		11-06		213
Maximum	04-23 (2020)		11-17 (2021)		230
2022	03-30 (2022)	27	11-15 (2022)	31	229
2021	04-03 (2021)	28	11-17 (2021)	29	227
2020	04-23 (2020)	32	10-30 (2020)	32	189
2019	04-02 (2019)	29	11-08 (2019)	29	219
2018	04-11 (2018)	26	11-12 (2018)	30	214
2017	03-24 (2017)	29	11-10 (2017)	24	230
2016	04-13 (2016)	31	11-01 (2016)	32	201
2015	04-02 (2015)	29	10-19 (2015)	30	199
2014	04-16 (2014)	31	11-08 (2014)	31	205
2013	04-04 (2013)	29	11-04 (2013)	32	213

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	04-02 (2019)		10-18 (2015)		187
Mean	04-11		11-01		204
Maximum	04-25 (2020)		11-15 (2014)		222
2022	04-05 (2022)	31	11-14 (2022)	29	222
2021	04-04 (2021)	29	11-06 (2021)	31	215
2020	04-25 (2020)	32	10-30 (2020)	30	187
2019	04-02 (2019)	24	11-04 (2019)	32	215
2018	04-12 (2018)	30	10-19 (2018)	31	189
2017	04-09 (2017)	29	11-09 (2017)	30	213
2016	04-13 (2016)	30	11-01 (2016)	31	201
2015	04-13 (2015)	31	10-18 (2015)	29	187
2014	04-21 (2014)	30	11-15 (2014)	25	207
2013	04-07 (2013)	30	10-25 (2013)	31	200

[Allsnow]

38 for the low last night..first freeze will be next week

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the better radiational cooling at night makes it cooler here relative to my old place back on Long Island. But it still has been the 4th warmest October to date. I guess the good news is that even averaging around 60° for October, it  will still give you colder feeling mornings.
 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 23	Missing Count
1	2021-10-23	63.0	0
2	2007-10-23	62.8	0
3	2017-10-23	61.9	0
4	2023-10-23	60.4	0
5	2020-10-23	60.0	0
-	1949-10-23	60.0	0

A member here previousl posted information concerning the Gulf Stream/Labrador circulation.  It seems it is slowing down, which is causing the northeast US air temperatures to be increasing faster than the rest of the globe.  If that trend continues, things look bleak for future winters?

[Will - Rutgers]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

A member here previousl posted information concerning the Gulf Stream/Labrador circulation.  It seems it is slowing down, which is causing the northeast US air temperatures to be increasing faster than the rest of the globe.  If that trend continues, things look bleak for future winters?

if that trend continues things look bleak for everything

[cleetussnow]

16 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

if that trend continues things look bleak for everything

Yeah but isn't that a cold outcome (like very bad cold)?  Thinking there would no longer be a heat transfer from the tropics to northern latitudes without the gulf stream transport mechanism.  Doomsday scenario for Europe...

[SACRUS]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

These are the first freeze dates across the entire area for the last 10 years so nobody gets left out.

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-01 (2020)		10-31 (2020)		215
Mean	03-29		11-16		232
Maximum	04-16 (2014)		12-09 (2016)		243
2022	03-30 (2022)	29	11-19 (2022)	31	233
2021	04-03 (2021)	32	11-23 (2021)	32	233
2020	03-01 (2020)	25	10-31 (2020)	32	243
2019	03-18 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	29	234
2018	04-09 (2018)	32	11-14 (2018)	32	218
2017	03-23 (2017)	23	11-10 (2017)	25	231
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	29	242
2015	04-01 (2015)	32	11-24 (2015)	32	236
2014	04-16 (2014)	31	11-18 (2014)	24	215
2013	03-23 (2013)	32	11-12 (2013)	31	233

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-24 (2017)		10-19 (2015)		196
Mean	04-05		11-09		218
Maximum	04-17 (2020)		11-28 (2016)		234
2022	03-30 (2022)	29	11-18 (2022)	32	232
2021	04-03 (2021)	30	11-24 (2021)	32	234
2020	04-17 (2020)	32	10-31 (2020)	32	196
2019	04-01 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	29	220
2018	04-11 (2018)	32	11-10 (2018)	32	212
2017	03-24 (2017)	31	11-10 (2017)	25	230
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	11-28 (2016)	32	231
2015	03-29 (2015)	25	10-19 (2015)	31	203
2014	04-16 (2014)	31	11-08 (2014)	32	205
2013	04-04 (2013)	31	11-04 (2013)	32	213

 

 

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-01 (2020)		11-08 (2019)		215
Mean	03-27		11-27		245
Maximum	04-16 (2014)		01-04 (2016)		281
2022	03-30 (2022)	30	11-19 (2022)	32	233
2021	04-02 (2021)	29	12-19 (2021)	31	260
2020	03-01 (2020)	26	12-08 (2020)	32	281
2019	03-13 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	31	239
2018	04-02 (2018)	32	11-15 (2018)	30	226
2017	03-23 (2017)	26	11-10 (2017)	27	231
2016	04-06 (2016)	32	12-09 (2016)	32	246
2015	03-29 (2015)	27	01-04 (2016)	15	280
2014	04-16 (2014)	32	11-18 (2014)	24	215
2013	03-22 (2013)	30	11-12 (2013)	32	234

 

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-16 (2020)		10-31 (2020)		212
Mean	04-02		11-16		227
Maximum	04-16 (2014)		12-09 (2016)		242
2022	03-30 (2022)	27	11-19 (2022)	32	233
2021	04-03 (2021)	31	11-23 (2021)	32	233
2020	03-16 (2020)	32	10-31 (2020)	32	228
2019	04-02 (2019)	31	11-08 (2019)	29	219
2018	04-11 (2018)	31	11-12 (2018)	30	214
2017	03-24 (2017)	32	11-10 (2017)	25	230
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	31	242
2015	03-29 (2015)	27	11-24 (2015)	31	239
2014	04-16 (2014)	32	11-15 (2014)	30	212
2013	04-04 (2013)	32	11-12 (2013)	32	221

 

Thanks Bluewave.  Thinkif we dont get there next week 11/1-11/4 it will be closer to 2018 later frst freezesin the metro stations.

[Allsnow]

Saturday 80’s and Wednesday not getting out of the 40’s on the euro 

[Allsnow]

Euro has everyone below frz next Thursday morning

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has everyone below frz next Thursday morning

Entirely possible given the date. I’ll be following closely, because the first freeze means allot of moving plants!

[Allsnow]

On 10/24/2023 at 2:51 PM, Allsnow said:

Saturday 80’s and Wednesday not getting out of the 40’s on the euro 

 

 

[winterwarlock]

33 for me last night

 

Frost when i went into work

 

Temps overperformed to 67

 

Let my Indian Summer commence tomorrow and gimme my beach day on Saturday 

[Will - Rutgers]

3 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Yeah but isn't that a cold outcome (like very bad cold)?  Thinking there would no longer be a heat transfer from the tropics to northern latitudes without the gulf stream transport mechanism.  Doomsday scenario for Europe...

probably not ideal for a global heat transfer mechanism to collapse, maybe the weeniers know better.  i think brian has a climatology degree from School of Rock, ask him

[forkyfork]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

that chart is 5 degrees too cool on day 1

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Yeah but isn't that a cold outcome (like very bad cold)?  Thinking there would no longer be a heat transfer from the tropics to northern latitudes without the gulf stream transport mechanism.  Doomsday scenario for Europe...

Luckily, it’s just the AMOC and not the Gulf Stream that is slowing down. While we would still see steady warming here, there would be no big cooldown outside the small area south of Greenland. 

https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/gulf-stream-collapse-amoc/

There is evidence that [the AMOC] has slowed down, and even collapsed, in the past… If the AMOC collapses — but there is no direct evidence of this — it would be a serious issue for the region [of the Greenland and Norwegian Seas]. It would probably introduce some cooling to a region that otherwise would be warming now… But the larger Gulf Stream circulation would continue operating, largely as before.”

[Allsnow]

40 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that chart is 5 degrees too cool on day 1

Going fishing Saturday morning so i hope It hits 95 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has everyone below frz next Thursday morning

I am guessing the freeze will be limited to areas outside the heat island since the average first freeze date in NYC last 10 years has been 11-16.

[Cfa]

37 this morning. 67 this afternoon.

Tropical plants still outdoors. No issues.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

It's a brief chill down. Ridge is back shortly after. 

[nycwinter]

it looks like sometime during the first week of november i will have to take out my winter coat..

[Allsnow]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am guessing the freeze will be limited to areas outside the heat island since the average first freeze date in NYC last 10 years has been 11-16.

Something the models won’t pickup outside the nam 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Going fishing Saturday morning so i hope It hits 95 

I went out today out of City Island. Was cold so I plunked down 30 bucks at the tackle shop for a 5 dollar pair of gloves when I have about 200 in my closet, which I forgot. Sank the boat with porgies, and by noon I was shedding jackets and sweating bullets. The Sound has been hot this year, and it only takes about 45 mins to get there from NJ, however the ride home is 3 hours no matter how you slice it. Boats out of Point Pleasant and Belmar have been doing well at the edge of the Mud Hole, but you better pick a nice day ( about 15 miles out due east ). Don't bottom fish out of Atlantic Highlands, it has been terrible. Stripped clean by draggers and pot fishermen. There is one boat targeting stripers though, and doing well. My advice is play hookey and go Wed or Thursday. Always crappy weather on weekends....you needed sun glasses and sunscreen out there today. A gorgeous day, even the Bronx looked lovely.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Going fishing Saturday morning so i hope It hits 95 

Any day that warm this time of year is going to have strong southwest winds with it.

[donsutherland1]

An impressive late October warmup is getting underway. Temperatures will surge to above and much above normal levels into the weekend. During the peak of the warmth, the temperature will likely reach into the 70s into southern and central New England. Parts of the Middle Atlantic Region Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia,and Washington, DC could reach 80°. Much cooler air could return to close out October.

All said, October is on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway.

The SOI was +0.77 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.051 today.

On October 21 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.563 (RMM). The October 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.353 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.2° (2.3° above normal).

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

I went out today out of City Island. Was cold so I plunked down 30 bucks at the tackle shop for a 5 dollar pair of gloves when I have about 200 in my closet, which I forgot. Sank the boat with porgies, and by noon I was shedding jackets and sweating bullets. The Sound has been hot this year, and it only takes about 45 mins to get there from NJ, however the ride home is 3 hours no matter how you slice it. Boats out of Point Pleasant and Belmar have been doing well at the edge of the Mud Hole, but you better pick a nice day ( about 15 miles out due east ). Don't bottom fish out of Atlantic Highlands, it has been terrible. Stripped clean by draggers and pot fishermen. There is one boat targeting stripers though, and doing well. My advice is play hookey and go Wed or Thursday. Always crappy weather on weekends....you needed sun glasses and sunscreen out there today. A gorgeous day, even the Bronx looked lovely.

 

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Any day that warm this time of year is going to have strong southwest winds with it.

Thank you for the update. Did you see any bunker or stripers being caught? With the southwest wind you think it will be rough Saturday with the outgoing tide? 

[Franklin0529]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Thank you for the update. Did you see any bunker or stripers being caught? With the southwest wind you think it will be rough Saturday with the outgoing tide? 

Bunker an bass in Raritan bay ass deep. Along the beach by sandy Hook also

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Bunker a bass in Raritan bay ass deep. Along the beach by sandy Hook also

Thank you! 

[the_other_guy]

Tonight in RDU (where I landed) already 52F. There is an area that radiates much better than NYC metro and in the shoulder seasons, it isnt unusual for it to be colder just before sunrise on clear nights than NYC