NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Maine hit Yup, and the system actually deepens while accelerating North from hrs 192 to 216. Huge wind field as well. Definitely undergoing transition on the way up. Looks like a movie I've seen before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: It has to weaken, you are not going to keep this pristine environment that long. Will be a huge wave and swell producer for east coast and Atlantic Canada but this is not going to hang onto cat 4 / 5 status once north of the Islands. The environment and overall pattern does degrade. Obviously, but that's not the reason for weakening in the next 5 days. The model is attempting to show the result of at least one ERC which massively expands the wind field. In fact the HAFS shows a new period of intensification beginning as the run ends. ERC... New eye emerging: ERC complete: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 It passes through Franklin's upwelling as well 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Obviously, but that's not the reason for weakening in the next 5 days. The model is attempting to show the result of at least one ERC which massively expands the wind field. In fact the HAFS shows a new period of intensification beginning as the run ends. ERC... New eye emerging: ERC complete: Totally understood, was just trying to convey I was not expecting it to stay at cat 4 / 5 levels for an extended period of time and certainly not to once north of the islands. Would even be surprised if after the ERC is complete if it got back to near peak or peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It passes through Franklin's upwelling as well Potentially yes, but not until mid next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: Totally understood, was just trying to convey I was not expecting it to stay at cat 4 / 5 levels for an extended period of time and certainly not to once north of the islands. Would even be surprised if after the ERC is complete if it got back to near peak or peak. Once the wind field expands it probably won't be able to get back to cat 5 but it should remain a high end major for at least the next week or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 The TT SST analysis seems to have ocean temps maybe a bit too cool in the cold pool. A buoy in the heart of it is measuring 78.4F which is warm enough to keep a strong hurricane going. It also has risen a full degree since earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 What a beast. Looking better by the frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 The eye has improved a lot in the last hour, kind of reminds me of Dorian undergoing RI. They could probably skip cat 3 on the next advisory and go straight to 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, GaWx said: Making any mention of a single ensemble member should be punishable by a night in jail or a fine of no less than $5,000 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Just now, Amped said: The eye has improved a lot in the last hour, kind of reminds me of Dorian undergoing RI. They could probably skip cat 3 on the next advisory and go straight to 4. I think they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 If this were to verify, i assume that would be catastrophic surge into Boston harbor? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 HAFS Model projects sustained 190-200MPH winds with gusting well over 210 MPH by Friday. This will be pushing record territory for Atlantic Canes and will certainly have the attention of every actuary working in the insurance industry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, cptcatz said: If this were to verify, i assume that would be catastrophic surge into Boston harbor? That storm would have to be coming in from the SE over RI or a place around there. N winds would be fine there verbatim as shown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 If the 12Z Euro were to happen to verify closely, the location of the highest E coast tidal range, Eastport, ME, would be very heavily affected by surge. So, the timing of any potential landfall near there in relation to high and low tide would make a larger difference there than at other locations on the US E coast. On Sept 16 for example, the predicted high tides are near 19 feet (just after midnight and noon): https://www.usharbors.com/harbor/maine/eastport-me/tides/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Let the twitter hype begin! Landfall I’m New England and the single euro eps that’s right into New York harbor lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Let the twitter hype begin! Landfall I’m New England and the single euro eps that’s right into New York harbor lol Thank god that single is just a single. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 New England has never seen even a Cat 4 storm come onshore. Most powerful one was a Cat 3 in 1938 (New England hurricane ) which caused significant damage throughout Long Island. Needless to say, all the stick built homes and above ground utilities would be utterly destroyed if a powerful cane like Lee were to come onshore as a Cat 4 anywhere along the New England coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Everything is still in play , so many pieces have to come together at the right time in order for this to be a fish storm . this storm from Va to MA needs to be monitored over the next week . The storm is going to be Huge by the time it comes up north and a 50 mile shift to the west could end up being catastrophic to the coast with surge , wind , flooding ect 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 12Z EPS has nudged left with some members land falling Lee along parts of the Northeast coast. Going to be very interesting to follow EPS next several days for longer range trends, especially after data from synoptic missions gets into the models. Impacts **IF ANY** are 7-9 days away. Will be interesting to follow....not an absolute slam dunk Lee is OTS. Has been my feeling and remains so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Regarding the 12Z EPS, I count a total of ~9 US hits excluding operational through 240 hours with ~5 hitting ME (excluding operational), ~3 hitting MA, and 1 hitting NY. Plus a couple more probably will hit on this run after 240. So, ~18%+ US hits on the 12Z EPS not including the operational, which means likely at least on par with the 20% of the previously most active 0Z of today. Or ~20%+ already if including operational. The point is that the significant increase in hits of the last run was maintained on this new run (12Z). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 21 minutes ago, Hotair said: New England has never seen even a Cat 4 storm come onshore. Most powerful one was a Cat 3 in 1938 (New England hurricane ) which caused significant damage throughout Long Island. Needless to say, all the stick built homes and above ground utilities would be utterly destroyed if a powerful cane like Lee were to come onshore as a Cat 4 anywhere along the New England coast. It's not going to be a Cat 4 going through 68-73 degree waters 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 23 minutes ago, Hotair said: New England has never seen even a Cat 4 storm come onshore. Most powerful one was a Cat 3 in 1938 (New England hurricane ) which caused significant damage throughout Long Island. Needless to say, all the stick built homes and above ground utilities would be utterly destroyed if a powerful cane like Lee were to come onshore as a Cat 4 anywhere along the New England coast. 1635 would like a word. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It's not going to be a Cat 4 going through 68-73 degree waters It’s not going to be purely tropical. Even 12z Euro shows it transitioning and deepening on final approach. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 31 minutes ago, Hotair said: New England has never seen even a Cat 4 storm come onshore. Most powerful one was a Cat 3 in 1938 (New England hurricane ) which caused significant damage throughout Long Island. Needless to say, all the stick built homes and above ground utilities would be utterly destroyed if a powerful cane like Lee were to come onshore as a Cat 4 anywhere along the New England coast. modern times yes, but 1635 is generally thought of as the strongest TC and probably close to a 4. *edit* oops someone else jumped on that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 42 minutes ago, MANDA said: As well as every climate alarmist. If it happens is it really alarmist to point out that it’s strength is at least partially based on the anomalous warm ssts it’s using? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Considering the WAR is underdone 98 times out of 100 these days beyond Day 5 this thing really probably has to be making a good north turn before 67-68W or its likely going to get very close at minimum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Cat 4 now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Up to a 130mph Cat 4 as of 5PM ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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