Hurricane Idalia

[shaggy]

Going back throught my images I saved as I was focused on the larger CC drop and missed the one right at the house. Wasn't a clear circulation there as the bigger couplet was SE of.me. wonder if it was a satellite tornado on the edge of the bigger meso

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, HiltonHeadWx said:

I live on Hilton Head.  I’ve recorded 2.4” of rain today, thus far, with a tad over 2” yesterday in three quick hitting thunderstorms. Winds were fairly light most of day, picking up in late afternoon, but here near Dolphin Head on the northern tip of the island (on Port Royal Sound), I haven’t seen any gusts over 45mph. The island takes hurricane threats very seriously and has a pretty good and thorough plan of action whenever a storm threatens. Many businesses, government offices, schools, etc all closed today, just in case earlier forecasts of hurricane winds and a 2-4 foot tidal surge came to pass. Fortunately, as is often the case, Hilton Head has basically dodged a bullet and I suspect most everything will be back to normal tomorrow. Here it’s pretty much “expect the worse, be prepared, and hope for the best”. Again, we apparently lucked out!  
 

 

Thanks for the report!  
my family stayed with their daughter in Raleigh and are heading back tomorrow.

It’s amazing that Hilton Head has had such good luck with hurricanes over the years.

[MANDA]

Pretty scary.

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1696958390289805663

 

[WxWatcher007]

7 hours ago, lilj4425 said:

Wow. Great pics. Snapped those trees like toothpicks. Glad to see you’re okay. I‘m surprised you have any cell service.

Thanks. I had to drive south for signal. Damage was bad between Perry and Steinhatchee, and gradually improved further south. 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

We did too. My highest winds were before 5PM. I had earlier thought per models/NHC that 5PM was to be the start of the worst. I think the main reason is that it got to its closest point just after 5PM instead of the previously expected 8PM.

How did you make it out? Hope all is well with you and your family.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Forecast landfall location of Steinhatchee, FL was perfect for Idalia, however, the forecast timing was too late by 90 minutes and the intensity was 10MPH too intense (125MPH vs 135MPH).
My thoughts as to why to inform better future forecasts are included.
FINAL GRADE: A

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/dangerous-hurricane-idalia-well-forecast.html?m=1

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks. I had to drive south for signal. Damage was bad between Perry and Steinhatchee, and gradually improved further south. 

How did you make it out? Hope all is well with you and your family.

I've had no power for 6 hours. About 1/3 of the area lost power. Otherwise, thank goodness we got pretty lucky compared to how bad I thought the winds might get based on earlier NHC forecasts. The highest official wind gust was near 52 mph and there were only a few near that high. But had those forecasts held, we likely would have had gusts into the 60s, which would have meant more trees down and a bigger mess.
 

 I was comparing Idalia with 2016's Hermine, which peaked at 80 mph/981 mb 5 hours before FL landfall near where Idalia hit. It went steady state through landfall rather than either further strengthening or weakening. From landfall, it took a near identical NE path to a little W of Savannah. Per the archives at closest approach Hermine was at 31.9N, 82.0W..55 mi WSW of Sav and 989 mb/50 mph. (It was moving NE at 18 mph.)

 To compare, Idalia was at 32.2N, 81.7W or 40 mi W of Sav with 984 mb/70 mph. (It was moving a similar NE at 21 mph.)

 So, they were at a similar distance away at their closest but Idalia was noted to have 20 mph higher winds (70 vs 50).

 What's really strange is that Hermine produced 6 mph stronger winds than Idalia!

 From Hermine wiki:

"Hermine weakened while crossing from Florida into Georgia, but still produced sustained winds of 45 mph at Savannah, with gusts to 58 mph."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hermine#:~:text=Hermine weakened while crossing from,(93 km%2Fh).

 Idalia's highest sustained/gust at Savannah were 6 mph lower with 39 sustained/gusts to 52. I remember clearly that Hermine was significantly stronger. And keep in mind that Idalia landfalled at 125 mph vs Hermine's only 80.

 I'm thankful but also amazed at the comparison.

 Any thoughts from anyone about this comparison?

[Kevin Reilly]

3 hours ago, gymengineer said:

Charleston at 9+ ft above MLLW about half an hour ahead of high tide:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.html?id=8665530
 

This event could slip between Matthew and Irma for #4. 

Strong High pressure to the north building off the New Jersey coast with the gradient developing is going to do some bad things for the Carolinas.

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Forecast landfall location of Steinhatchee, FL was perfect for Idalia, however, the forecast timing was too late by 90 minutes and the intensity was 10MPH too intense (125MPH vs 135MPH).
My thoughts as to why to inform better future forecasts are included.
FINAL GRADE: A

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/dangerous-hurricane-idalia-well-forecast.html?m=1

Gotta agree.  Easy A

 

[WEATHER53]

20 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Strong High pressure to the north building off the New Jersey coast with the gradient developing is going to do some bad things for the Carolinas.

This is catching off guard 

[RU848789]

13 hours ago, HiltonHeadWx said:

I live on Hilton Head.  I’ve recorded 2.4” of rain today, thus far, with a tad over 2” yesterday in three quick hitting thunderstorms. Winds were fairly light most of day, picking up in late afternoon, but here near Dolphin Head on the northern tip of the island (on Port Royal Sound), I haven’t seen any gusts over 45mph. The island takes hurricane threats very seriously and has a pretty good and thorough plan of action whenever a storm threatens. Many businesses, government offices, schools, etc all closed today, just in case earlier forecasts of hurricane winds and a 2-4 foot tidal surge came to pass. Fortunately, as is often the case, Hilton Head has basically dodged a bullet and I suspect most everything will be back to normal tomorrow. Here it’s pretty much “expect the worse, be prepared, and hope for the best”. Again, we apparently lucked out!  
 

 

Question for you.  In theory, wind gusts greater than 65 mph are usually needed to uproot mature trees and there was a report of 30 trees down on HHI, so I assume then, that at least at times and maybe in isolated locations, winds probably gusted over 65 mph, even if those speeds weren't recorded at the few stations on the island.  So, was wondering what the max recorded gusts were on HHI (the public info statement from the NWS office doesn't show any gusts on HHI over 40 mph, unless I'm not aware of place names).  Any input on that?  

Edit: looking at the PNS for the area, there were gusts of 69 mph on Tybee Island about 7 miles SW of HHI, 66 mph in Beaufort about 10 miles NE of HHI and 64 mph in Calibogue Sound about 1-2 miles SW of HHI.  I just find it hard to believe that some places on HHI wouldn't have had 60+ mph gusts given reports of gusts that high surrounding the island, despite the reports of only ~35 mph gusts - looks more like the vagaries of wind variability and maybe instrument issues on HHI stations.  

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CHS&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

https://www.wtoc.com/2023/08/31/not...island-residents-grateful-low-impacts-idalia/

https://www.weather.gov/media/pqr/wind/wind.pdf

[Floydbuster]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

I've had no power for 6 hours. About 1/3 of the area lost power. Otherwise, thank goodness we got pretty lucky compared to how bad I thought the winds might get based on earlier NHC forecasts. The highest official wind gust was near 52 mph and there were only a few near that high. But had those forecasts held, we likely would have had gusts into the 60s, which would have meant more trees down and a bigger mess.
 

 I was comparing Idalia with 2016's Hermine, which peaked at 80 mph/981 mb 5 hours before FL landfall near where Idalia hit. It went steady state through landfall rather than either further strengthening or weakening. From landfall, it took a near identical NE path to a little W of Savannah. Per the archives at closest approach Hermine was at 31.9N, 82.0W..55 mi WSW of Sav and 989 mb/50 mph. (It was moving NE at 18 mph.)

 To compare, Idalia was at 32.2N, 81.7W or 40 mi W of Sav with 984 mb/70 mph. (It was moving a similar NE at 21 mph.)

 So, they were at a similar distance away at their closest but Idalia was noted to have 20 mph higher winds (70 vs 50).

 What's really strange is that Hermine produced 6 mph stronger winds than Idalia!

 From Hermine wiki:

"Hermine weakened while crossing from Florida into Georgia, but still produced sustained winds of 45 mph at Savannah, with gusts to 58 mph."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hermine#:~:text=Hermine weakened while crossing from,(93 km%2Fh).

 Idalia's highest sustained/gust at Savannah were 6 mph lower with 39 sustained/gusts to 52. I remember clearly that Hermine was significantly stronger. And keep in mind that Idalia landfalled at 125 mph vs Hermine's only 80.

 I'm thankful but also amazed at the comparison.

 Any thoughts from anyone about this comparison?

Weakening hurricanes have winds that just ain't bursting down the surface the way strengthening hurricanes are. 

[WxWatcher007]

Haven’t looked much, but I’m not sure what to make of the model confusion over Idalia’s long term track yet. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Haven’t looked much, but I’m not sure what to make of the model confusion over Idalia’s long term track yet. 

Lul wut

 

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Lul wut

 

He probably hasn't looked since some models were showing it coming back around to Florida. 

[Kevin Reilly]

17 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

He probably hasn't looked since some models were showing it coming back around to Florida. 

Yea the idea of Idallia coming back to the coast is a distant memory should just keep on moving to the right out to sea. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

He probably hasn't looked since some models were showing it coming back around to Florida. 

Yeah, I was out of the loop  

[biodhokie]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, I was out of the loop  

[WxWatcher007]

Well the ensemble guidance is split and the hurricane track models to loop it. It probably is a shell of itself if it happens before a trough kicks it.

[NorthHillsWx]

34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well the ensemble guidance is split and the hurricane track models to loop it. It probably is a shell of itself if it happens before a trough kicks it.

Likely a convection less low level swirl if it gets left behind. If it’s generating deep convection it’s going to exit stage right 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[HiltonHeadWx]

15 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Question for you.  In theory, wind gusts greater than 65 mph are usually needed to uproot mature trees and there was a report of 30 trees down on HHI, so I assume then, that at least at times and maybe in isolated locations, winds probably gusted over 65 mph, even if those speeds weren't recorded at the few stations on the island.  So, was wondering what the max recorded gusts were on HHI (the public info statement from the NWS office doesn't show any gusts on HHI over 40 mph, unless I'm not aware of place names).  Any input on that?  

Edit: looking at the PNS for the area, there were gusts of 69 mph on Tybee Island about 7 miles SW of HHI, 66 mph in Beaufort about 10 miles NE of HHI and 64 mph in Calibogue Sound about 1-2 miles SW of HHI.  I just find it hard to believe that some places on HHI wouldn't have had 60+ mph gusts given reports of gusts that high surrounding the island, despite the reports of only ~35 mph gusts - looks more like the vagaries of wind variability and maybe instrument issues on HHI stations.  

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CHS&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

https://www.wtoc.com/2023/08/31/not...island-residents-grateful-low-impacts-idalia/

https://www.weather.gov/media/pqr/wind/wind.pdf

It can frustrating getting good readings on Hilton Head Island, especially for wind. The airport does report data hourly, with the exception of precipitation, which for some odd reason it doesn’t measure. While it’s a small airport, it is heavily used by general aviation and American, Delta, and United have multiple commuter jet flights to major eastern and midwestern cities. The lack of a full reporting station there is a bit puzzling. That aside, yesterday the airport was offline, for some unknown reason, from 11AM until 9PM, thus completely missing the time period when winds were peaking on the island.  There are many amateur stations on the island, including mine, but few, if any, are able to get good wind readings due the heavily treed nature of Hilton Head.  I have a Davis station, but my anemometer is basically worthless due to my home being surrounded by tall pines, oaks, palms, etc. 

My semi-educated guess is the peak wind gusts did exceed 60mph, especially in areas of the island with southern exposure toward the ocean. At my home, I’d guess we didn’t exceed 50mph, but I’m toward the northern tip of HHI, with much more exposure to winds coming from the north or west off of Port Royal Sound and Skull Creek. After the storm, I only had a few large limbs in the yard, plus a good number of small branches and a lot of pine needles.  No tree damage and none visible anywhere around the neighborhood. We also never loss power, it didn’t even flicker, which is not too surprising considering the vast majority of power & communication lines on HHI are underground.  All in all, much of the island escaped pretty much unscathed by Idalia.

 

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, HiltonHeadWx said:

It can frustrating getting good readings on Hilton Head Island, especially for wind. The airport does report data hourly, with the exception of precipitation, which for some odd reason it doesn’t measure. While it’s a small airport, it is heavily used by general aviation and American, Delta, and United have multiple commuter jet flights to major eastern and midwestern cities. The lack of a full reporting station there is a bit puzzling. That aside, yesterday the airport was offline, for some unknown reason, from 11AM until 9PM, thus completely missing the time period when winds were peaking on the island.  There are many amateur stations on the island, including mine, but few, if any, are able to get good wind readings due the heavily treed nature of Hilton Head.  I have a Davis station, but my anemometer is basically worthless due to my home being surrounded by tall pines, oaks, palms, etc. 

My semi-educated guess is the peak wind gusts did exceed 60mph, especially in areas of the island with southern exposure toward the ocean. At my home, I’d guess we didn’t exceed 50mph, but I’m toward the northern tip of HHI, with much more exposure to winds coming from the north or west off of Port Royal Sound and Skull Creek. After the storm, I only had a few large limbs in the yard, plus a good number of small branches and a lot of pine needles.  No tree damage and none visible anywhere around the neighborhood. We also never loss power, it didn’t even flicker, which is not too surprising considering the vast majority of power & communication lines on HHI are underground.  All in all, much of the island escaped pretty much unscathed by Idalia.

 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC   1209 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2023       ..HIGHEST WIND REPORTS FROM IDALIA       LOCATION SPEED TIME/DATE PROVIDER

  SOUTH TYBEE ISLAND 69 MPH 0439 PM 08/30 WXFLOW

BEAUFORT 66 MPH 0619 PM 08/30 WXFLOW  

CALIBOGUE SOUND 64 MPH 0536 PM 08/30 WXFLOW

Based on the above from NWS CHS, I'd think 60+ on parts of HH is supported. This data was pulled from here:

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KCHS/2308310409.nous42.html

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, HiltonHeadWx said:

It can frustrating getting good readings on Hilton Head Island, especially for wind. The airport does report data hourly, with the exception of precipitation, which for some odd reason it doesn’t measure. While it’s a small airport, it is heavily used by general aviation and American, Delta, and United have multiple commuter jet flights to major eastern and midwestern cities. The lack of a full reporting station there is a bit puzzling. That aside, yesterday the airport was offline, for some unknown reason, from 11AM until 9PM, thus completely missing the time period when winds were peaking on the island.  There are many amateur stations on the island, including mine, but few, if any, are able to get good wind readings due the heavily treed nature of Hilton Head.  I have a Davis station, but my anemometer is basically worthless due to my home being surrounded by tall pines, oaks, palms, etc. 

My semi-educated guess is the peak wind gusts did exceed 60mph, especially in areas of the island with southern exposure toward the ocean. At my home, I’d guess we didn’t exceed 50mph, but I’m toward the northern tip of HHI, with much more exposure to winds coming from the north or west off of Port Royal Sound and Skull Creek. After the storm, I only had a few large limbs in the yard, plus a good number of small branches and a lot of pine needles.  No tree damage and none visible anywhere around the neighborhood. We also never loss power, it didn’t even flicker, which is not too surprising considering the vast majority of power & communication lines on HHI are underground.  All in all, much of the island escaped pretty much unscathed by Idalia.

If you are referring to Hilton Head, KHXD, then the difficulties are possibly due to it being an AWOS and not ASOS. AWOS are antiquated systems that can be put at lower priority airports. If I recall correctly, AWOS do not have a mandate to be augmented by humans, not do they require an alternate power source. Therefore, if there is a commercial power loss the system just goes dark. We simply do not fund our environmental observation networks in the US and the truly upsetting part is that it would not cost too much money to do so.

[gymengineer]

A lot of focus was on the storm surge record at Cedar Key, but it looks like Steinhatchee also easily broke its record set by Hermine. And Clearwater Beach had its highest water level as well, breaking the record set by the 1993 Superstorm. St. Petersburg was really close to its record water level as well, ending up a close second. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, gymengineer said:

A lot of focus was on the storm surge record at Cedar Key, but it looks like Steinhatchee also easily broke its record set by Hermine. And Clearwater Beach had its highest water level as well, breaking the record set by the 1993 Superstorm. St. Petersburg was really close to its record water level as well, ending up a close second. 

Great point. Does anyone know what the official Tampa Bay storm surge was?

[WxWatcher007]

My video from the storm. Damage survey video tomorrow. 
 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Great point. Does anyone know what the official Tampa Bay storm surge was?

Well, I looked at the site linked below and it appears that Tampa may have had a 5.2 ft storm surge at 8:12 AM on August 30th! If this were to verified as accurate, that may be the highest surge at least since the 5 ft from Gladys of 1968! That's pretty amazing considering how far offshore it was and that it landfalled way up in the Big Bend!

 Can anyone verify this data?

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8726607&bdate=20230829&edate=20230831&units=standard&timezone=GMT&interval=6

 

[traindog71]

Most record surge is measured over MHHW, not just over the expected tide at a given time.


.

[KPITSnow]

Early estimates of 20 billion in damage, so for those complaining it was t that bad, that makes it a top 15 storm I believe.

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Early estimates of 20 billion in damage, so for those complaining it was t that bad, that makes it a top 15 storm I believe.

Where is the damage? Usually there are picture’s everywhere. Other than a few micro communities and Perry I do not see where this value comes from. In NC where I live there was some flooding down east but nothing you wouldn’t expect from any tropical system. Maybe crop damage jacked it up? I just do not see 20 billion in damage from anything I’ve seen so far