WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Just a really cool loop to watch 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just a really cool loop to watch Right at the end of the loop, you can see that the lightning activity starts to ramp up and circles around the core, noticeable ring like feature. I have only seen that with systems that are beginning an RI process or systems that have an RI underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Getting salty 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, schoeppeya said: Getting salty Not good, this falls in line with the hurricane models that have been on the higher-end of the intensity forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Looks like Idalia is forming a potent and relatively tiny core. Will be interesting to see if it will collapse like Delta's or give way to a period of rapid intensification. All interests on the Florida gulf coast and coastal Southeastern states should be watching very closely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 20 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Getting salty Here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Wow, it looks like all systems are go tonight. Very interested in what recon shows regarding the character of this developing core. 60mph and 992mb. Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Idalia's center has become embedded beneath a large burst of deep convection, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures as cold as -82 degrees Celsius. NOAA buoy 42056, located just to the east of the center, has reported maximum 1-minute sustained winds as high as 45 kt within the past hour or two. The anemometer height of the buoy is 4 meters, so converting the wind to a standard 10-meter height indicates that Idalia's intensity is now up to at least 50 kt, which is the initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Idalia in a few hours. The center has been moving erratically since earlier today, and may have even sagged southward, pulled toward the recently developed deep convection. A northward motion is expected to begin on Monday and continue through Tuesday as Idalia moves between a mid-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and strengthening ridging over the Greater Antilles. After 48 hours, a gradual turn toward the northeast and then east is anticipated due to a deeper trough that is expected to swing across the Great Lakes. No significant changes were required for the updated NHC track forecast compared to the previous prediction. The spread among the track models remains relatively low, and the official track continues to lie closest to the ECMWF and HCCA consensus aid. Idalia is sitting over very warm waters of about 30 degrees Celsius, and when it moves northward, it will be over the even deeper warm waters of the Loop Current in 24-36 hours. Although the trough over the Gulf could impart some shear over the system, this is likely to be offset by upper-level diffluence. Idalia has already strengthened more than anticipated, and the environment looks ripe for additional intensification, possibly rapid. The NHC intensity forecast has been increased and lies at the upper bound of the guidance. The new prediction now shows a 95-kt hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast of Florida. Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch areas are urged to prepare for possible significant impacts and monitor future updates to the forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida. The risk continues to increase for a life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday. Storm surge and hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. 3. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far western Cuba late Monday. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 19.8N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 20.7N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 22.2N 85.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 24.2N 84.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 26.8N 84.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 29.6N 82.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/0000Z 32.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 01/0000Z 34.3N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 34.4N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Quote ...IDALIA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Recon is now in the air and headed toward Idalia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 This certainly does appear to already be a cane, would be a shock if it's not upgraded at the next update... Interested to see what the incoming recon data shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Up from last advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Check out the Bouy near Idalia https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, negative-nao said: Check out the Bouy near Idalia https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at5 NAO,,,,,, I have never looked at one of those before what should a novice such as myself be noticing or looking for ? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 27 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: NAO,,,,,, I have never looked at one of those before what should a novice such as myself be noticing or looking for ? Thanks in advance Winds about 50 knots and pressure about 995 MB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Recon starting to descend into Idalia.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 3 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: 2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: I could see why you might think that. In this case however, there's little shear and definitely some banding in the southern semi-circle in the lead-up and during the burst. Edit: A bit of northerly shear and dry air, but nowhere near what Franklin was having to endure during its CCC phase. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 The 0z GFS landfalls Idalia with a central pressure of between 955-960 in the Big Bend around where Hermine landfalled 7 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 53 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Up from last advisory That's going to move down. I think Tampa is the bullseye. Maybe just north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 I still think this is going much further east in the end. Maybe I'm wrong but it is unusual to have many go between Apalachicola and Tampa Bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I still think this is going much further east in the end. Maybe I'm wrong but it is unusual to have many go between Apalachicola and Tampa Bay. The southern drift it's been on increases those chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 I'm becoming increasingly concerned even up here for potential major impacts if a worst case scenario of a major hurricane FL landfall and subsequent track too close to this area were to materialize. In that worst case scenario, it would be difficult to deal with due to complicating family circumstances (disability related). Ugh 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, GaWx said: I'm becoming increasingly concerned even up here for potential major impacts if a worst case scenario of a major hurricane FL landfall and subsequent track too close to this area were to materialize. In that worst case scenario, it would be difficult to deal with due to complicating family circumstances (disability related). Ugh Someone with more experience can correct me if my assumption is wrong, but if the vertical column stacks within the next 6-8hrs i believe the worse case scenario will unfold. Really hinges on how Idalia organizes/develops the core and if it continues to abate the shear and dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Recon still moving toward the center. Nothing stands out thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 00z GEFS through D5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Extrapolated pressure of 990.6mb taken at ~4700ft. Peak FL of 59kt. Edit: This is a NW to SE pass for those that can't follow closely. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#AF304-0310A-IDALIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Center dropsonde shows a pressure around 989-990mb. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 5:17ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number: 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 3Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 5Z on the 28th day of the monthHighest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mbCoordinates: 19.7N 85.2WLocation: 147 statute miles (237 km) to the SE (133°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.Marsden Square: 045 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -82m (-269 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 991mb (29.27 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 25.0°C (77°F) 190° (from the S) 17 knots (20 mph) 925mb 609m (1,998 ft) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 22.8°C (73°F) 205° (from the SSW) 14 knots (16 mph) 850mb 1,349m (4,426 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 18.8°C (66°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level Information About Radiosonde:- Launch Time: 5:09Z- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.Highest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 19.70N 85.23W- Time: 5:09:19ZLowest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 19.70N 85.22W- Time: 5:11:17ZMean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 200° (from the SSW)- Wind Speed: 15 knots (17 mph)Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 190° (from the S)- Wind Speed: 14 knots (16 mph)- Depth of Sounding: From 853mb to 990mbAverage Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)- Wind Speed: 16 knots (18 mph)Sounding Software Version: AEV 30407 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 991mb (Surface) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 25.0°C (77°F) 897mb 22.2°C (72.0°F) 21.3°C (70°F) 860mb 21.6°C (70.9°F) 20.5°C (69°F) 850mb 22.4°C (72.3°F) 18.8°C (66°F) 844mb Unavailable Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 991mb (Surface) 190° (from the S) 17 knots (20 mph) 944mb 205° (from the SSW) 13 knots (15 mph) 927mb 205° (from the SSW) 15 knots (17 mph) 865mb 160° (from the SSE) 15 knots (17 mph) 853mb 155° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Sorry for all the rapid fire posts. Finishing up the NW to SE pass, recon finds peak FL (flight level wind) of 58kt and unflagged SFMR of 53 and 54kt, confirming the 11pm wind in the advisory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 First VDM. Importantly, no evidence of an eye from recon. I'm interested in seeing what the wind field looks like (how symmetrical it is) and what the FL/SFMR are in the NE quad. Will also be telling if pressures fall in between center fixes. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 5:28ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 3Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 5:08:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 19.72N 85.25WB. Center Fix Location: 144 statute miles (232 km) to the SE (134°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,363m (4,472ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.27 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 190° at 17kts (From the S at 20mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 27kts (31.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (309°) of center fix at 5:03:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 36° at 31kts (From the NE at 35.7mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NW (309°) of center fix at 5:01:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 54kts (62.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix at 5:14:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 230° at 59kts (From the SW at 67.9mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix at 5:12:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,532m (5,026ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,534m (5,033ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (134°) from the flight level center at 5:12:00ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 26°C (79°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NW (313°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Very healthy structure. Not something I wanted to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280548 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHES IDALIA... ...IDALIA FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 85.3W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Isle of Youth Cuba * Dry Tortugas Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida * Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 85.3 West. Idalia has been moving erratically and is nearly stationary. A motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected to begin later today, bringing the center of Idalia over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Idalia will then continue on a northward or north-northeastward path over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday. Aircraft data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a hurricane later today. Idalia is likely to be near or at major hurricane intensity when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft Tampa Bay...4-7 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in western Cuba by late today. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth in Cuba through today Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning late today and within the tropical storm watch area along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated higher totals of 5 inches. Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of the Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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