negative-nao

Makes second Land Fall at Brunswick Georgia @ hr 240 on 0ZGFS

000 WTNT35 KNHC 280548 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHES IDALIA... ...IDALIA FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 85.3W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Isle of Youth Cuba * Dry Tortugas Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida * Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 85.3 West. Idalia has been moving erratically and is nearly stationary. A motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected to begin later today, bringing the center of Idalia over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Idalia will then continue on a northward or north-northeastward path over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday. Aircraft data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a hurricane later today. Idalia is likely to be near or at major hurricane intensity when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft Tampa Bay...4-7 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in western Cuba by late today. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth in Cuba through today Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning late today and within the tropical storm watch area along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated higher totals of 5 inches. Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of the Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Check out the Bouy near Idalia https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at5

I think the GFS is playing catch up. Lets see if this trend continues