yoda Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 85.2W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Englewood northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Middle of Longboat Key northward to the Holocene River, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key, and from west of the Lockheed River westward to Indian Pass. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Atlantic coast of Florida and Georgia from Sebastian Inlet, Florida northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Englewood northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Middle of Longboat Key northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Isle of Youth Cuba * Dry Tortugas Florida * Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key * West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour * Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound Georgia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key * West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of the Middle of Longboat Key to Chokoloskee Florida * West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge * Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 85.2 West. Idalia is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight, over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft Tampa Bay...4-7 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-4 ft Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's River...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in western Cuba later today. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth in Cuba through today Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas beginning late today and within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches. Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADO: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along the west central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Hurricane Warning up for Tampa Bay proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 The satellite presentation of the storm has improved this morning with the center more deeply embedded within the deep convection and colder cloud tops. However, recent reconnaissance aircraft data from both the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA indicate that the improved satellite presentation has not yet resulted in an increase in wind speed. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 68 kt, and a minimum pressure around 990 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 55 kt this advisory. The Air Force aircraft will be in the storm environment through early afternoon and that data should continue to provide information Idalia's structure and intensity. Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Idalia is moving northward or 360/8 kt. A mid-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles should cause Idalia to move northward at a faster forward speed during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, an even faster north-northeast motion is expected an another mid-level trough moves across the central and eastern portions of the United States. The latest NHC track forecast is again quite similar to the previous forecast. Although the track forecast has been quite consistent, there is still some spread in the guidance by 48 hours, and it cannot be emphasized enough that only a small deviation in the track could cause a significant change in Idalia's landfall location in Florida due to the paralleling track to the west coast of the state. Although there is still some moderate northwesterly over the storm, intensification seems likely during the next 12-18 hours, and Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane during that time. By Tuesday, the environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to become more conducive for strengthening. Steady to rapid intensification is predicted beginning Tuesday while Idalia traverses the warm waters of the eastern Gulf and the upper-level environment becomes more favorable. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for Idalia to reach major hurricane strength before landfall along the Gulf coast of Florida. This forecast has necessitated the issuance of Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings for portions of the west coast of Florida and Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Atlantic coasts of Florida and Georgia. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of Florida. Inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia. 3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. 4. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far western Cuba later today. Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.8N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 22.0N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 23.9N 85.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 26.4N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 29.2N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 31.9N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1200Z 33.6N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 01/1200Z 34.6N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 34.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 NHC now not showing quite as much intensification prior to landfall. the 12z intensity models on Tropical Tidbits have also pulled back a bit, keeping Idalia and strong 2 to weak 3. Of course RI can be hard to predict, so can't assume anything from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: NHC now not showing quite as much intensification prior to landfall. the 12z intensity models on Tropical Tidbits have also pulled back a bit, keeping Idalia and strong 2 to weak 3. Of course RI can be hard to predict, so can't assume anything from that. The 12Z hurricane models aren't actually out yet, and won't be for another few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: The 12Z hurricane models aren't actually out yet, and won't be for another few hours. Tropical Tidbits has them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tropical Tidbits has them. Where? All still the 06Z runs for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: Where? All still the 06Z runs for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That is not intensity guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 GFS trying to turn Idalia back into the southeast at HR 168? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, MUWX said: That is not intensity guidance. I know that. Just showing that 12z guidance is available. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Idalia has had a really hard time actually wrapping feeder bands into the center of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: I know that. Just showing that 12z guidance is available. I prefer to wait for the actual frame-by-frame model runs of the hurricane models (HAFS-A/B, HWRF, HMON) with MSLP, sim IR, etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Guidance has been consistent or more or less keeping Idalia in check into shear lessen N of Cuba later tonight/early tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: I prefer to wait for the actual frame-by-frame model runs of the hurricane models (HAFS-A/B, HWRF, HMON) with MSLP, sim IR, etc. It gives you a good idea though about how things like track and intensity are changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 2 hours ago, Hotair said: TV reminding folks how far Ian track was from actual LF 72 hours out. I do believe the steering patterns are a little better behaved this time given the multi model consensus, but no one inside the cone should let their guard down Below is a copy of a post I did 10/1/22 detailing Ian FL LF progs for 5 main op models starting from 0Z 9/25 runs, which were then 85 hours out from the Port Charlotte LF. As of 0Z today, Idalia was only ~60 hours from landfall. So, that would about correspond to the 0Z 9/26 runs for Ian. So, one can see from this that: A. -Top performing UKMET <50 miles from actual Ian LF all runs within 85 hours. ~Spot on for runs that were 85, 61, 49, and 13 hours out with little net bias. -2nd best ICON even had Tampa (70 miles too far left) just 49 hours out -CMC was still way too far left just 25 hrs out! -GFS not close til 25 hrs out -Euro not close til 37 hrs out B. Per 0Z 9/26 Ian runs, which correspond to ~how far from LF is Idalia as of 0Z today (~60 hours): 1) UKMET was spot on and ICON only 25 miles too far left 2) CMC and GFS were way up at Apalachee Bay, a whopping 250 miles too far left 3) Euro was up at Cedar Key, 160 miles too far left 4) So, non-UKMET models were all too far left with GFS, CMC, and Euro a whopping 160-250 miles too far left 5) For Idalia, models are way closer together for LF at ~60 hour point (0Z 8/28 runs): -GFS/CMC furthest left near Perry -ICON furthest right ~10 miles SE of Cedar Key -So, range is only 75 miles vs 250 miles for Ian at same time from LF! GFS/CMC are furthest left like for Ian but not nearly by as much -UKMET/Euro right in middle ~30 miles NW of Cedar Key -Based on this, I'm guessing that 0Z GFS/CMC at Perry will verify too far left -My best guess is to go close to 0Z UKMET/Euro, which were ~30 miles NW of Cedar Key and ~40 miles NW of 0Z ICON --------------------------------- Here's the Ian FL landfall model performance post I made last year: "Looking back to the 0Z 9/25 runs at where the models had FL landfalls: 0Z 9/25: ICON Venice CMC Cedar Key GFS Destin Euro Sarasota UKMET Port Charlotte 12Z 9/25: ICON Sarasota CMC Apalachee Bay GFS Apalachee Bay Euro Tampa UKMET Venice 0Z 9/26: ICON Venice CMC Apalachee Bay GFS Apalachee Bay Euro Cedar Key UKMET Port Charlotte 12Z 9/26: ICON Tampa CMC Apalachicola GFS Tampa Euro Big Bend UKMET Port Charlotte 0Z 9/27: ICON Venice CMC Big Bend GFS Sarasota Euro Venice UKMET just N of Ft Myers 12Z 9/27: ICON Port Charlotte CMC Tampa GFS just N of Port Charlotte Euro Port Charlotte UKMET 20 miles S of Ft. Myers 0Z 9/28: ICON 15 miles S of Port Charlotte CMC Venice GFS Port Charlotte Euro Port Charlotte UKMET Port Charlotte My grades on FL landfall only (i.e., excluding SC landfall) for 9/25-8 runs: UKMET A- ICON B Euro C- GFS D CMC F" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Yeah, and notice they ticked back west...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NERMAN Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: I prefer to wait for the actual frame-by-frame model runs of the hurricane models (HAFS-A/B, HWRF, HMON) with MSLP, sim IR, etc. Totally agree. HWRF showed a strong Cat 4 at 06z and the others had a strong Cat 3. Let's see what they have at 12z before saying the guidance has dropped. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Idalia has had a really hard time actually wrapping feeder bands into the center of the systemThere is still mid-level shear imparting the circulation. That being said, the core is showing a favorable environment for continued bursts of deep convection. So it's going to be another 24 hours of give and take as bursts of convection try to wrap up shear east and then north of the center, then likely get blown back and fail to wrap from 700 to 400 hPa levels. I'd imagine this will occur repeatedly as the LLC drives just west of Cuba and into the SE GOM. Mid-level flow values won't become more favorable until well into tonight. That is when we may start seeing more alignment and more pronounced intensification on Tuesday. Eventually, into Wednesday, the flow vector will become more dangerous for significant intensification all the way into landfall, hence modeling and the official forecast. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 20 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Idalia has had a really hard time actually wrapping feeder bands into the center of the system There is still mid-level shear imparting the circulation. That being said, the core is showing a favorable environment for continued bursts of deep convection. So it's going to be another 24 hours of give and take as bursts of convection try to wrap up shear east and then north of the center, then likely get blown back and fail to wrap from 700 to 400 hPa levels. I'd imagine this will occur repeatedly as the LLC drives just west of Cuba and into the SE GOM. Mid-level flow values won't become more favorable until well into tonight. That is when we may start seeing more alignment and more pronounced intensification on Tuesday. Eventually, into Wednesday, the flow vector will become more dangerous for significant intensification all the way into landfall, hence modeling and the official forecast. The timing of any intensification may end up not being ideal. No doubt a massive blowup last night through today and tonight would have been better because probably an ERC would happen before landfall...it may now end up going through its peak cycle up until approach which is underrated as far as how well winds reach the surface. A 130mph storm undergoing an ERC can cause less wind damage sometimes than a rapidly intensifying 105mph storm...we've seen this a few times in recent year. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 12z ICON: West 12z GFS through 51 hours: West (of its westernmost solution). Euro still a safe bet, but it is becoming increasingly isolated to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 12Z GFS is basically over Tallahassee at 18Z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 CMC goes east -- basically the first model to trend that way since 18z runs yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 32 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Guidance has been consistent or more or less keeping Idalia in check into shear lessen N of Cuba later tonight/early tomorrow. You could see the sheer impact this morning as an outflow boundary from collapsing convection shot out to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NERMAN Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 12z GFS came in with the same intensity as 06z, as a Cat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Euro remains to be seen, even with some westward movement on other guidance no reason for local TB region media mets and municipal officials to let up on messaging and urgency, esp for Zone A and B residents, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 I don’t know, seems like the Tampa bubble is in full effect her and this is gonna end up staying north and west . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Euro remains to be seen, even with some westward movement on other guidance no reason for local TB region media mets and municipal officials to let up on messaging and urgency, esp for Zone A and B residents, After the debacle in Fort Myers last year surrounding late ordered evacuations, Tampa metro has to be very concerned about storm track and surge threat. Weren’t Zone A and B evacuated last year before Ian took a more southerly track? Tough decisions ahead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Evac orders at this time 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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