July 2023

[Stormlover74]

Seeing some lightning from that cell in somerset

[winterwarlock]

great just what I need. another 1-2 inches of dumping deluge

[Jacob brooklyn]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

great just what I need. another 1-2 inches of dumping deluge

What's your location?

[Stormlover74]

Pouring here

Didn't last long. Dropped around a tenth

[winterwarlock]

23 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

What's your location?

Belle Mead NJ, just north of Princeton

[Jacob brooklyn]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Belle Mead NJ, just north of Princeton

Ok. Cool. Southern bklyn here.

[Poker2015]

59 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Seeing some lightning from that cell in somerset

Got. 18" from that one...came out of nowhere

[Roger Smith]

According to my stats, since the top ten cold month of Feb 2015, these top ten warm months have been recorded at NYC, near miss 11-15 cases shown in ((( triple brackets ))) ... these are not adjusted for urban heat island, some of these ranks would fall slightly if a progressive u.h.i. adjustment was applied ... : 

JAN _ 1 (2023) ... (((12 2020)))

FEB _ 1 (2018) .. 2 (2017) .. 3 (2023) .. t8 (2020)

MAR _ 4 (2016) .. 7 (2020) .. (((t13 2021)))

APR _ 2 (2023) .. 3 (2017) .. (((t13 2019)))

MAY _ 2 (2015) .. 6 (2018)

JUN _ t6 (2021)

JUL _ 7 (2020) .. ((( t11 2019, t13 2022 )))

AUG _ 3 (2022) .. 4 (2016) .. 5 (2015) .. t10 (2018)

SEP _ 1 (2015) .. t10 (2016)

OCT _ 1 (2017) .. 6 (2021)

NOV _ 1 (2020) .. 2 (2015) .. (((13 2022)))

DEC _ 1 (2015) .. t3 (2021)

________________

That is a total of 25 top ten months and 31 top 15. 

Feb 2015 was third coldest and since then the highest ranking cold month is t31 coldest Nov 2019.

[Intensewind002]

Frequent lightning from that cell offshore

[nycwinter]

tomorrow night at this team you will feel the cool northerly breeze kick in i cannot wait..

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be another very warm and humid day. However, strong thunderstorms could cross the region during the afternoon or evening as a cold front moves through. In the wake of the frontal passage, Sunday will turn noticeably cooler and less humid.

The extreme heat event that has gripped the Southwest for four weeks is beginning to fade. The intense heat will continue to slowly fade over the coming days with the extreme heat ending on Sunday or Monday. As has often occurred in areas witnessing prolonged sieges of heat in recent years, there are some hints that the heat could rebuild next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -14.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.023 today.

On July 26 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.275 (RMM). The July 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.219 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3° (1.8° above normal).

 

I hope Phoenix hits 110 one last time on Monday, it would be interesting to see the whole month of July there with every day at 110 or above.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

tomorrow night at this team you will feel the cool northerly breeze kick in i cannot wait..

why does this heat feel so much hotter than the more extreme heat we had in 2010 and 2011?

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, doncat said:

Made it to 94° today...94° is station max for month so far, reached three times... Also 0.19" of rain just after midnight.

 

 

Feels a lot hotter than it actually was.....months like July 1991, July 1993, July 1999, July 2010, July 2011, etc, would laugh at this, since we had double digit temperatures over 94 back then

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

These underperforming SE Ridge/ WAR amplifications have become few and far between. The common denominator seems to be when we have near record rainfall in area. My guess is that the ridge usually verifies stronger around 75% or more of the time from 6-10 days out. So this is one of the few times that the models were too warm. Could also be related to the near record blocking this month.
 

 

 

what caused the near record blocking, Chris?

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

91/73/100 currently not as bad as yesterday but technically hotter by a degree. 6th 90 of the summer for me

Hit 93 here right around 2 PM for the high of the day

Tomorrow should be the last 90+ day for awhile and our first heatwave of the season.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, psv88 said:

Up to 92 now, but sea breeze is upon us, let’s see if it’s just a dew spike or actually cools us down. 
 

roasting today in NW Suffolk. Many PWS to my north are 92-94. 

Hit 93 here on the south shore around 2 PM before the sea breeze came in-- it doesn't make it feel any better, it just gets more humid with temps hovering around 90 for a few hours.

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

91F for a high yesterday. Currently 73F/DP 70/RH 90%.

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of July are averaging   81degs.(72/90) or +3.

Month to date is   79.4[1.9].     July should end at    79.5[+1.9].

Reached 90 here yesterday, H.I. of 106.

Today:  90-94, wind w., variable clouds, Rain by 7pm, 71 tomorrow AM.

76*(88%RH) here at 7am.     78* at 8am.    80* at Noon.      84* at 2pm.       88* at 3pm(H.I. of 99).    89* at 3:30pm(H.I. of 101)      91* at 4:30pm(H.I. of 103}    92* at 5pm(H.I. of 104)      93* at 5:15pm(H.I. of 106)       95* at 6pm(H.I. of 110)       90* at 7pm.    85* at 8pm.

 

[nycwinter]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why does this heat feel so much hotter than the more extreme heat we had in 2010 and 2011?

 

but it does not feel hotter at least not in the city..

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 95 here.

Current temp 76/DP 72/RH 90%

[FPizz]

.27 last night

[winterwarlock]

Ive had 2 seperate showers in the past hour. The first was pretty heavy

 

What is going on

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

what caused the near record blocking, Chris?

 

It’s possibly related to the record low Northern American snow cover back in May.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

78 / 73 partly to mostly cloudy with some showers into CNJ andNE-NJ.  Warm - hot and humid, where / when the sun is out temps jump to low 90s, perhaps mid 90s in spots with most sunshine.  More scattered storms during the brunt of the day so likely not too bad before more storms later this evening and overnight with frontal passage.  Looks most heaviest storms in the northern sections. Thick cloud deck about 7 - 9 hours away.

 

Sun (7/31) - Wed (3rd) back to or below normal, less humid and great weather low - mid 80s in the warmest spots.  Ridge is centering back near TX/OK this week with trough into the NE as the W. Atl. Ridge is contracted into the Atlantic.  Winds come back around more SW by Wed and its more warm and humid with storm chances through Fri (5th).  A bit back and forth through the opening of the week of the 8th before trough is backing into the GL and more overall warm, humid southerly flow is back as the Atl ridge is backing west.  

First week near normal / below overall

Warming the second week / humid / more storms chances.

Ridge and heights look to come up towards the end of the second week into the east.

 

  

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

High for the day yesterday was 95 here.

Current temp 76/DP 72/RH 90%

whats your 90 degree count for the year ?  

[SACRUS]

 

Records Jul - 29

 

Highs:

EWR: 100 (1949) the NYC/NJ area was in the throws of an intense heatwave in 1949
NYC: 99 (1949)
LGA: 97 (1949)
 

Lows:

 

EWR: 59 (1937)
NYC: 59 (1914)
LGA: 62 (1984)

Historical:

 

1898 - The temperature at Prineville, OR, soared to 119 degrees to establish a state record, which was tied on the 10th of August at Pendleton. (The Weather Channel)

1905 - Heavy rain in southwestern Connecticut caused a dam break, and the resulting flood caused a quarter of a million dollars damage at Bridgeport. As much as eleven inches of rain fell prior to the flood. (David Ludlum)

 

1958: The U.S. Congress passes legislation establishing the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), a civilian agency responsible for coordinating America’s activities in space. 

 

1960: Severe thunderstorms brought damaging winds, possibly as high as 100 mph to central Oklahoma. Eight planes and several hangars were damaged at Wiley Post Airfield, while two aircraft and additional hangars were damaged at Will Rogers World Airport. The winds caused seven injuries in the area, including two youths who were injured by flying debris.

1981 - Fifty cattle, each weighing 800 pounds, were killed by lightning near Vance, AL. The lightning struck a tree and then spread along the ground killing the cattle. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Minnesota to Indiana and Illinois. A thunderstorm at Janesville, WI, produced wind gusts to 104 mph which flipped over two airplanes, and blew another plane 300 feet down the runway. The northeastern U.S. experienced some relief from the heat. Nine cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Johnsbury, VT, with a reading of 42 degrees. Barnet, VT, reported a morning low of 33 degrees, with frost reported on vegetation. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Hail three inches in diameter was reported south of Saint Cloud, MN. Hot weather prevailed in the western U.S. Fresno, CA reported a record thirteen straight days of 100 degree heat. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest produced more than five inches of rain west of Virgil, SD. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms deluged the foothills and adjacent plains of Colorado with heavy rain. Rains of six to seven and a half inches fell in eight hours north of Greeley. Hail and heavy rain caused several million dollars damage in Weld County. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

[Allsnow]

.25 this morning 

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I hope Phoenix hits 110 one last time on Monday, it would be interesting to see the whole month of July there with every day at 110 or above.

 

With the monsoonal moisture, it's unlikely. Monday and Tuesday will likely be in the 105-108 range. Heat should return afterward and the August monthly record high temperature could be challenged next Saturday. Phoenix will still have the warmest July in terms of average monthly temperature and average monthly low temperature of any U.S. city (Death Valley locations are hotter).

[JustinRP37]

Odd the weather channel is going for a below average month temperature wise for NYC and Boston in August. I think it will be just above average because of the cool start but warm to hot finish. 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

According to my stats, since the top ten cold month of Feb 2015, these top ten warm months have been recorded at NYC, near miss 11-15 cases shown in ((( triple brackets ))) ... these are not adjusted for urban heat island, some of these ranks would fall slightly if a progressive u.h.i. adjustment was applied ... : 

JAN _ 1 (2023) ... (((12 2020)))

FEB _ 1 (2018) .. 2 (2017) .. 3 (2023) .. t8 (2020)

MAR _ 4 (2016) .. 7 (2020) .. (((t13 2021)))

APR _ 2 (2023) .. 3 (2017) .. (((t13 2019)))

MAY _ 2 (2015) .. 6 (2018)

JUN _ t6 (2021)

JUL _ 7 (2020) .. ((( t11 2019, t13 2022 )))

AUG _ 3 (2022) .. 4 (2016) .. 5 (2015) .. t10 (2018)

SEP _ 1 (2015) .. t10 (2016)

OCT _ 1 (2017) .. 6 (2021)

NOV _ 1 (2020) .. 2 (2015) .. (((13 2022)))

DEC _ 1 (2015) .. t3 (2021)

________________

That is a total of 25 top ten months and 31 top 15. 

Feb 2015 was third coldest and since then the highest ranking cold month is t31 coldest Nov 2019.

I used dense rank sorting for temperature to compile the top 10. So I came up with 28 months in NYC since 2015 making the top 10 warmest temperatures. This is slightly behind Poughkeepsie which has 35 top 10 warmest months since 2015. My guess is that the tree growth over the NYC ASOS is artificially cooling site. So NYC would probably have closer to POU if the trees were kept at a standard distance from the ASOS like all other sites. Newark is similar to POU also.

 

………NYC…POU….Top 10 warmest months since 2015

JAN……1…….2

FEB……4……5

MAR…..2……3

APR…..3…….3

MAY….2…….3

JUN….1…….1

JUL….2……5

AUG….4…..5

SEP….2……2

OCT….2…..2

NOV….3….2

DEC…..2….2

NYC…..28 months……POU…..35 months

https://www.sqlservertutorial.net/sql-server-window-functions/sql-server-dense_rank-function/