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July 2023


Stormlover74
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A heatwave is likely in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Parts of the region could see readings climb into the middle and perhaps upper 90s during the height of the heat. The humidity could add to the discomfort. At present, the potential heatwave does not appear to be a prolonged affair.

An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Phoenix reached a daily record 119°. That was its third 119° temperature this year (old record: 2, 1990). El Paso and Tucson each registered their 40th consecutive 100° or above days, both of which are records.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -37.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.071 today.

On July 23 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.245 (RMM). The July 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.479 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.4° (1.9° above normal).

 

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7 hours ago, FPizz said:

Ask @Poker2015, it usually breaks up around here.  This is insane right now.  Torrential rain, huge lightning bolts, and some of the loudest thunder I've heard in years.

1.13" in that crazy storm...we only get it when it comes from the southwest or northwest...straight west it splits every time!!

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11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

For sure. Before 2010 Long Beach was full of them. After the 3/2010 nor’easter, Irene and finally Sandy they’re essentially all gone. Irene left rows of them toppled near my house. 

I remember. They really started getting blighted during the 90s in Long Beach. Sounded like gunshots during heavy wet snowstorms as the branches snapped. Then March 2010, Irene, and Sandy. The old saying was never park your car under one of them if there were any kind of storms in forecast. They really were a hazard before Sandy wiped out most of them. 

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Touch and go whether the severe heat makes it into NYC or gets cut off around central NJ on Friday but what looks more certain is a chance of severe storms on Saturday as a strong wave forms around Ohio and moves towards n NJ and NYC. My guess is something like 95-100F in central NJ on Friday, 92-95 F at NYC airports, 85-90 at ISP and POU then 2-3" rain potential (hit or miss probably) across the region on Saturday. 

The southwest heat dome is currently at 600 dm over NM and is supposed to start deflating gradually over next five days to the low 590s allowing more of a typical monsoon mid-summer pattern to replace the magnifying glass effect. By this weekend there could be some monsoon storms forming over AZ. I notice the heat has moved as far north as the southern tier of counties in Nebraska but not so much beyond that, Omaha was only into the mid-80s while Topeka was 102. That is probably a precursor of a similar sharp gradient with the heat as it makes its one or two day presence felt further east, but the southwest ridge and the Atlantic ridge never make much of a connection before it all collapses this weekend. With that heavy rain potential on Saturday, temps could be between 75 and 80 during the rain but highs could reach 85-90 in any sunshine. 

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The last 6 days of July are averaging  84degs.(74/94) or +6.

Month to date is    79.1[+1.6].       July should end at   80.1[+2.5].

Reached 80 here yesterday.

Today:   86-90, wind w. to s., variable clouds, 76 tomorrow AM.

69*(97%RH) here at 7am{was 68 earlier}.     73* at 9am.      78* at Noon.      81* at 3pm.      83* at 4pm.

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24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Thanks. I was looking for how much rain has fallen this month at that station? In the past I could be directed to that stations website and get it directly. I guess they did away with that link. Thanks for the help. 

You can also use XMACIS2


http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

Time Series Summary for NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2020 11.39 0
2 1988 11.17 0
3 1975 10.33 0
4 1997 10.00 0
5 1984 9.65 0
6 1987 9.60 0
7 1969 8.26 0
8 2004 8.19 0
9 1989 7.42 0
10 2023 7.26 6
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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can also use XMACIS2


http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

Time Series Summary for NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2020 11.39 0
2 1988 11.17 0
3 1975 10.33 0
4 1997 10.00 0
5 1984 9.65 0
6 1987 9.60 0
7 1969 8.26 0
8 2004 8.19 0
9 1989 7.42 0
10 2023 7.26 6

This is great information! Thanks for the link. 

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