rclab Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: i miss the smoke. who wants to come with me to quebec with a bunch of matches Perhaps, forky, you shouldn’t deny yourself. Head up that way on your own, perch yourself near the top of one of the extra dry pines, in lieu of matches bring an extra length metal rod and wait patiently. As always ….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 CMC looks good for monday with an inch of rain for a good part of the area. We can hope. GFS not as impressed but not too bad. I'm hoping we can pull off at least a decent half inch soaking for the gardens. We're in desperate need ... crazy that my tomato plants have gotten only 1 watering from rain since I planted them at the beginning on May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 52 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: When the models indicated a change to much warmer/much colder, building ridge, deepening trough and kept postponing it usually never happened. This needs to be watched. It is not impossible that we are in the beginnings of cool summer from beginning to end with only a few isolated hot days and NO prolonged heat or even warmth. We've had these before--1996,1997, 2004, etc. WX/PT Kind of like this past winter-the cold never really came despite models showing it in the longer range.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 Weeklies are still a torch for July. They have not backed down. This is the coldest snapshot from yesterday's run. I expect the weeklies to adjust and show more cooler weather in this time frame, but still well above normal for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 1 hour ago, psv88 said: AQI is 20 now. She’s done Unfortunately the fools at NYS DEC have the Air Quality Alert going until Midnight, it should have be canceled immediately this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: Weeklies are still a torch for July. They have not backed down. This is the coldest snapshot from yesterday's run. I expect the weeklies to adjust and show more cooler weather in this time frame, but still well above normal for the month still looks like a trough over the NE thought..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: still looks like a trough over the NE thought..... That's the coldest snapshot though, it's a full blown ridge after that. I wouldn't be surprised if it got pushed back though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: still looks like a trough over the NE thought..... Thank you Brian. The best of the ridge remains west of us with only a piece breaking off and moving eastward once in a while. I would be surprised if July averages out much if at all above normal in NYC. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Thank you Brian. The best of the ridge remains west of us with only a piece breaking off and moving eastward once in a while. I would be surprised if July averages out much if at all above normal in NYC. WX/PT Also of interest the waters in the NW Atlantic have cooled considerably-might be a positive feedback mechanism for a trough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 Stupid post You'd think that with the wisdom you've got regarding weather, MJO, you'd also be able to weather a comment you don't like. I'm glad you think it's a stupid post. Would you like me to start pointing out all stupid posts?Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 Stupid post The traffic in the city for Thursday and Friday is similar to during covid. And you're wondering why he would want to have an easy day? The city will always do and strongly suggest whatever is easiest and clears up traffic as much as possible. That's all there is to it.What may have been more stupid is that you couldn't seem to understand that on your own.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I'm a little skeptical that the cool weather pattern is going to change before the last two days of June or even early or mid July. WX/PT Don’t worry come December they will show the stupid torch again. Sad face 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 Also back to my cooler summer outlook. When a piece of the heat ridge breaks off unfortunately this is where the high pressure will often end up. This is a cool outcome with surface winds off of the relatively cool ocean waters. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 12z Euro pretty good for monday too. A half inch to inch for a lot of the area. Good to see the models looking better for monday ... hopefully it'll hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro pretty good for monday too. A half inch to inch for a lot of the area. Good to see the models looking better for monday ... hopefully it'll hold. Slower than other models-holds it off til evening/overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 Light rain in Brightwaters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro pretty good for monday too. A half inch to inch for a lot of the area. Good to see the models looking better for monday ... hopefully it'll hold. I've been holding onto a .5" to 1" rain event and it still seems to be on track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 76 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 Last measurable rainfall (outside of the storms on Tuesday) was May 20th for most. Monday PM / Tue (6/13) looks like widespread measurable rain for most. 76 here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 Wed was cool and all but I dont want to see that color at 2pm ever again Wildfire smoke. Top headline. Who woulda thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month and likely beyond it. The generally dry weather will continue with perhaps a few showers or thundershowers through Sunday. Sunday will likely be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the 80s. There is potential for a moderate to significant rainfall Monday through Tuesday. The latest ECMWF weeklies have backed off the development of sustained warmer than normal conditions after the second week of June. The warmth is delayed until late in the month, but that's a low-skill forecasting range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +10.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.489 today. On June 7 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.593 (RMM). The June 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.591 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (0.7° below normal). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(63/82) or +1. Reached 74 here yesterday at 4pm. Today: 75-79, wind w., p. cloudy, 65 tomorrow AM. 60*(75%RH) at 7am{was 59 at 6am}. 63* at 9am. 69* at Noon. 72* at 1pm. 74* at 2pm. 76* at 3pm. 77* at 4pm. 73* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 71 and mostly sunny. Another splendid weekend on tap but rainfall needed. Upper 70s and low 80s today and with smoke out of the way and full sunshine we'll see if the recent dryness allows highs to exceed guidance. Sun (6/11) mid to perhaps upper 80s. Low cuts off under the building ridge (#3 since May with tendency / weakness into the NE). First meaningful / measurable rain comes later Mon (6/13) into Tue (6/14) with a general 0.5 - 075 / 1.00 inches for most. The ULL lifts through Wed (6/15) and near normal temps for the rest of the week. Beyond there we'll see if we get a fourth cut off and onshore tendency between 6/16 and 6/19. Ridge and heat building into the Rockies / Plains and GL by the last 10 days of june and we'll see pieces eject east. A more typical progression from the past Junes 2015,16,18 perhaps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (2008) NYC: 96 (2008) LGA: 100 (2008) Lows: EWR: 49 (1972) NYC: 49 (1972) LGA: 48 (1972) Historical: 1752 - It is believed that this was the day Benjamin Franklin narrowly missed electrocution while flying a kite during a thunderstorm to determine if lightning is related to electricity. (David Ludlum) 1957 - A dust devil at North Yarmouth, ME, lifted a 600 to 1000 pound chicken shelter into the air and carried it 25 feet. It landed upright with only slight damage. It is unknown whether any eggs were scrambled. (The Weather Channel) 1958 - A woman was sucked through the window of her home in El Dorado, KS, by a powerful tornado, and was carried sixty feet away. Beside her was found a broken phonograph record entitled Stormy Weather . (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced 2 to 4 inch rains in southern Texas. Two and a half inches of rain at Juno TX caused flooding and closed a nearby highway. Flooding on the northwest side of San Antonio claimed one life as a boy was swept into a culvert. Thunderstorms in the north central U.S. produced an inch and a half of small hail at Monida Pass MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Three dozen cities, mostly in the eastern U.S., reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins, WV, with a reading of 33 degrees. Unseasonably hot weather continued in the Northern High Plains Region. The record high of 105 degeees at Williston, ND, was their seventh in eight days. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather through the day and night across much of the southern half of the Great Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned 14 tornadoes, and there were 142 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Hail three inches in diameter caused three millions dollars damage at Carlsbad, NM. Hail four inches in diameter was reported at Estelline TX and Stinnett, TX. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 mph at Odessa TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1997: Flash Flooding occurred in many locations in Mississippi. Highway 80 and many other streets were flooded in and around Vicksburg. Water engulfed one person's car, but the person was rescued. This event caused $300,000 in property damages. Over 6 inches of rain fell in Lexington in a little over 3 hours. The torrential rains caused Bear Creek to overflow and flood much of the town of Lexington. 45 businesses were affected by the flooding and 30 of these suffered major losses. As many as 300 homes had water damage. This event caused 10 million dollars in property damages. Portions of Jones County experienced flash flooding as 3 inches of rain fell in just 1.5 hours over saturated ground. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 Beautiful day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 Spectacular weekend at the beaches. Finally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 10, 2023 Author Share Posted June 10, 2023 Very light shower. Looks like a heavier downpour over Middlesex @winterwx21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Very light shower. Looks like a heavier downpour over Middlesex @winterwx21 The heavy downpour missed me just a couple miles to the south. Just a moderate shower here that wasn't enough to water anything. Hopefully we'll get a decent soaking on monday like most models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 Well did break the 19 day stretch with no measurable rain with 0.03". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 6/10 ACY: 83 PHL: 83 EWR: 83 TTN: 82 New Brnswck: 82 JFK: 80 BLM: 79 TEB: 79 LGA: 78 NYC: 78 ISP: 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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