2023 - tracking the tropics

[WeatherHappens]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’re going to have a behemoth barreling perilously close up or off the coast this time next week . Deets TBD

I'll give this man, you are persistent lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh...not a big "fan" ( haha) of the western semi-circle idea.  

If the system is moving by E or SE of your location at 40 mph (say), and you are supposedly inside the TS force wind expanse, that equates approximately to ( TS wind expanse - 40 mph) = a pleasantly breezy nice day to be outside involved in unbothered activities during the hoopla of massively expanded this that and the other thing ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hurricane Lee Minimal Threat to US | Eastern Mass Weather

 

Hurricane Lee Minimal Threat to US

High Surf Primary Impact

Currently Hurricane Lee is a minimal category 1 hurricane over the central Atlantic with maximum sustained winds near 80MPH

However, guidance continues to emphatically suggest that the system will soon undergo rapid intensification into at least a category 4 storm.

 

Thus the most important consideration is whether or not this system is likely to have a major impact on the US and the answer is no.

 

Future Path & Intensity of Lee Spell Minimal Threat to US

While there is still a great deal of uncertainty among guidance concerning the precise track of Lee over the next several days, one aspect that guidance is essentially in unanimous agreement on is that the system will begin to recurve to the north by approximately 70 degrees longitude, as a weakness develops the ridge downstream from the hurricane.

 

This is a crucial portion of the forecast because climatology can often be used as a guide when computer models are at the periphery of their more skilled range, which is the case here. In this case, it is evident that hurricanes that go onto greatly impact the NE US at least approach about 75 degrees on longitude before veering towards the north.

 

But clearly guidance is in strong agreement that that will not be the case with Lee.

 

 

Although agreement is strong, there was one lone voice of dissent amongst the European ensemble suite that would pose a particularly dire threat to the state of Florida.

 

 

 

But this scenario is an extreme outlier considering that 51/52 European members turn Lee to the north and every one of the GFS ensemble members do.

Thus confidence in the above scenario is well above average relative to the extended lead time and thus a major impact to the NE can essentially be ruled out since the hurricane will begin its recurve so far to the east. 

 

 

 

But essentially is not synonymous with entirely. Like that lone voice of dissent among the European cluster that loomed ominously for Florida, there are two outlier GFS ensemble members that draw Lee into the trough and track the system over Cape Cod on approximately September 18.

 

 

Although this is an exceedingly unlikely scenario, which is illustrated by climatology,  it is a theoretically plausible scenario.

 

 

 

 But Lee would first have to traverse waters that have been significantly cooled due to the upwelling caused by Hurricane Frederick and Hurricane Idalia, thus whether or not Lee would impact the Cape as a hurricane is very dubious.

 

In fact it is more likely than not that it would have been downgraded to a tropical storm by this point, which coupled with the asymmetrical wind distribution that is characteristic of tropical storms interacting with mid latitude systems, would mean sensible impact commensurate with a typical winter nor 'easter rather than a major hurricane strike.

 

Remain vigilant, but unalarmed and any updates will be issued later this week if warranted-

[kdxken]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’re going to have a behemoth barreling perilously close up or off the coast this time next week . Deets TBD

Thank you. When is your next update?

[tamarack]

10 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Sounds like Hurricane Gloria again 

Again, it's expectations.  Way inland (Fort Kent) it was just a fall storm, but there were massive outages from the midcoast west to AUG, some losing power for about 2 weeks.  Probably had some high-end TC or low-end Cat 1 gusts there.  Of course, Maine hasn't had a Cat 2+ in 150-200 years, at least.

[WeatherHappens]

I'm out, this has teased me long enough.

[dryslot]

55 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Not meh here.  During our 50 years in Maine, the only winds gusting to 60 (estimated by effects) came from the April 1982 blizzard at Fort Kent and Bob at Gardiner.  The latter also holds my greatest calendar-day RA with 6.41" and also set a new daily record at PWM with 8.1" (crushed by the oddball hybrid storm in Oct 1996, with 12.4").  Bob is also the only TC of memory that had backside NW winds as strong as frontside SE, toppling trees in opposite directions.

Yeah, Winds were very strong with Bob, It was was bad here too, Lost power for 10 days, At that time had no generator, Sump pumps couldn't run, 2'+ of water in the basement, Never again will that happen.

[Great Snow 1717]

12 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

I'm out, this has teased me long enough.

....but the Tolland Looters will be making a special guest appearance this afternoon....

[40/70 Benchmark]

The best shot of a real impactful system would be a Sandy/Perfect Storm type of phase....lotto ticket.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

I'm out, this has teased me long enough.

The doubters may well look very very foolish . This is a very unique setup and all the pieces are there . When the big hurricane experts in the world are mentioning it’s got a decent shot .. you pay attention 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

105mph now forecast to be 160 in 24 hours 

[Cyclone-68]

What’s the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin? Wonder if this has a shot 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

@Cyclone-68 Wind is 190mph Allen in ‘80.  Pressure is 882mb Wilma in ‘05

[MJO812]

I'm all in

[WeatherHappens]

18 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

....but the Tolland Looters will be making a special guest appearance this afternoon....

Okay, I'll stick around for that lol.

[WeatherHappens]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The doubters may well look very very foolish . This is a very unique setup and all the pieces are there . When the big hurricane experts in the world are mentioning it’s got a decent shot .. you pay attention 

I truly hope that you are right. I would happily eat some crow if it happens.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

@Cyclone-68 Wind is 190mph Allen in ‘82. Pressure is 882mb Wilma in ‘05

Allen was 1980...but yeah, crazy strong that storm got.

[Typhoon Tip]

Bounced to almost cat 3 on the 11 am.    105 mph, 983 mb.  

[Ginx snewx]

Phases of Lee as it approaches 

Ungodlee  SW Atlantic 

Beautifullee  West of Bermuda 

Lopsidellee  well east of LI

Naked swirlee - North of Nova Scotia 

 

 

[Cyclone-68]

Lol I somehow neglected to include the Gulf of Mexico when I wrote that. My bad 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

@Cyclone-68 Wind is 190mph Allen in ‘82. Pressure is 882mb Wilma in ‘05

I think Gilbert ('88) is still 2nd at 888mb.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think Gilber ('88) is still 2nd at 888mb.

Gilbert still holds the eye-candy trophy in my book.   That sucker grew so large that it's areal circumvallate was the size of Texas, and at one point ...one of the extended spiral arms actually developed a new tropical depression along it's axis of flaring convection.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Gilbert still holds the eye-candy in my book.   That sucker grew so large that it's areal circumvallate was the size of Texas, and at one point ...one of the extended spiral arms developed a tropical depression along it's axis of flaring convection.

Wow...I didn't know that. Yea, massive storm. First one I remember following on TWC.

[Typhoon Tip]

As stated above, RI is occuring, and will likely continue today. "

 

Nice!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Gilbert still holds the eye-candy trophy in my book.   That sucker grew so large that it's areal circumvallate was the size of Texas, and at one point ...one of the extended spiral arms actually developed a new tropical depression along it's axis of flaring convection.

https://youtu.be/h9QDJ-x_0xU

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Gilbert still holds the eye-candy trophy in my book.   That sucker grew so large that it's areal circumvallate was the size of Texas, and at one point ...one of the extended spiral arms actually developed a new tropical depression along it's axis of flaring convection.

Yep....I remember Gilbert all over the news in 1988...probably one of my earlier Tropical cyclone memories. Its aerial coverage was insane....something like 600 miles IIRC. I still say that Cozumel/Yucatan peninsula used up 8 of their 9 lives on that one....it encountered some unfavorable upper air right before landfall there and weakened to a cat 4....otherwise it would have been an epic catastrophe.

Hurricane Gilbert is still pretty well-known in Texas not for the tropical winds, but for all the tornadoes it spawned. It caused a bunch of tornadoes, several of which hit San Antonio where I had just moved away from back to New England.

[OSUmetstud]

If you can get Lee inside 70W the whole dynamic changes imo. Last night's runs, especially the ECMWF had a very favorable trough/ridge combo for US landfall. It's just that storm is out between 65 and 70W so it ends up being a Nova Scotia thing. Lee kinda sits in no man's land for a few days north of the Greater Antilles without a strong Bermuda high to push it west. I'd probably put a northeast landfall at 10%, with 50% Atlantic Canada, and 40% out to sea. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep....I remember Gilbert all over the news in 1988...probably one of my earlier Tropical cyclone memories. Its aerial coverage was insane....something like 600 miles IIRC. I still say that Cozumel/Yucatan peninsula used up 8 of their 9 lives on that one....it encountered some unfavorable upper air right before landfall there and weakened to a cat 4....otherwise it would have been an epic catastrophe.

Hurricane Gilbert is still pretty well-known in Texas not for the tropical winds, but for all the tornadoes it spawned. It caused a bunch of tornadoes, several of which hit San Antonio where I had just moved away from back to New England.

I thought it made LF at Cozumel as cat 5 160mph?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

If you can get Lee inside 70W the whole dynamic changes imo. Last night's runs, especially the ECMWF had a very favorable trough/ridge combo for US landfall. It's just that storm is out between 65 and 70W so it ends up being a Nova Scotia thing. Lee kinda sits in no man's land for a few days north of the Greater Antilles without a strong Bermuda high to push it west. I'd probably put a northeast landfall at 10%, with 50% Atlantic Canada, and 40% out to sea. 

Yes.

[Typhoon Tip]

This paragraph by NHC is all kinds of fun to read ...

The
question doesn't appear to be if RI continues, but rather how
strong Lee will get, and how quickly will it get there. Many of the
models are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond
rates normally seen with model forecasts. Both HAFS models forecast
Lee to exceed 150 kt within the next 2 days, and even HCCA brings
the hurricane above the category 5 threshold. The NHC intensity
forecast has been shifted significantly higher, but is actually
within the guidance envelope. It should be stressed that internal
dynamics (eyewall replacement cycles) will become a factor with the
maximum strength of Lee as it becomes a major hurricane. This
is almost certain to lead to fluctuations in intensity that are
beyond our ability to forecast at these lead times. Hurricane Hunter
aircraft are scheduled to investigate Lee beginning this evening and
overnight, which should provide extremely useful information about
Lee's intensity during the coming days.