Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[Rjay]

45 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I’m not talking about the future, there have always been people all over the place with future patterns in my 25+ years on these boards. I haven’t seen anyone call this December 2015, although I may have missed it, but it seems like a narrative people create in their own head that others are saying such things. I’m talking about people in denial about the general warmth of the actual daily readings saying “it feels cold” or “it’s still above normal but not that much”.  I’m not saying people should throw hissy fits over that and rage but I also think there are people burying their head in the sand on it. 

I love when it's +3 above the warmest normals in history and get told it's barely above average.  

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

I’m not talking about the future, there have always been people all over the place with future patterns in my 25+ years on these boards. I haven’t seen anyone call this December 2015, although I may have missed it, but it seems like a narrative people create in their own head that others are saying such things. I’m talking about people in denial about the general warmth of the actual daily readings saying “it feels cold” or “it’s still above normal but not that much”.  I’m not saying people should throw hissy fits over that and rage but I also think there are people burying their head in the sand on it. 

To complicate matters even more, humans are quickly able to normalize warming conditions. So while there are people who don’t want to believe we are warming, there are others who normalize it so quickly that it doesn’t feel that unusual. That just seems to be human nature since we are very adaptable. So maybe there are some that don’t see the actual stats and would be surprised that anything out of the ordinary is happening. 
 

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/04/normalizing-weather-extremes-dulls-concerns-for-warming/

Moore’s study, published in PNAS in February, found people base their perceptions of normal weather patterns on a two- to eight-year span of time – a short timeframe that can distort perceptions of the effects of climate change.

“What’s worrying about this is that the constant rate of adjustment, this rate of normalization of two to eight years, that’s pretty quick compared to the rate at which climate change happens,” Moore says. “So the risk is that if you’re forgetting what happened before eight years ago, then you’re never really going to be able to put the weather that you experience into this longer-term context that really describes the overall effects of climate change.”

They found people would tweet about unusual weather conditions like extreme heat or cold events, but the more often these events occurred, the fewer the number of people who posted about them, suggesting they had begun to accept them as normal.

“What we show is that, if you have unusual temperatures and this is the first you’ve ever experienced it, that generates a big change on Twitter and people are talking about it a lot,” Moore says. “But if you have that same change … two years in a row, then people begin to stop talking about it. And if you have that same change eight years in a row, then people completely stop talking about it. So what that implies is that people’s idea of normal has shifted from what it used to be to this new state that’s defined by what happened two to eight years ago. And so we’re estimating this is kind of what people think of as normal just based on the rates at which they stop tweeting about unusual temperatures when they get them repeatedly year after year.”

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this month is 6 degrees warmer than dec 1997 at the park

We really are just frogs slowly boiling

Humanity is so f*cked 

[IrishRob17]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

To complicate matters even more, humans are quickly able to normalize warming conditions. So while there are people who don’t want to believe we are warming, there are others who normalize it so quickly that it doesn’t feel that unusual. That just seems to be human nature since we are very adaptable. So maybe there are some that don’t see the actual stats and would be surprised that anything out of the ordinary is happening. 
 

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/04/normalizing-weather-extremes-dulls-concerns-for-warming/

Moore’s study, published in PNAS in February, found people base their perceptions of normal weather patterns on a two- to eight-year span of time – a short timeframe that can distort perceptions of the effects of climate change.

“What’s worrying about this is that the constant rate of adjustment, this rate of normalization of two to eight years, that’s pretty quick compared to the rate at which climate change happens,” Moore says. “So the risk is that if you’re forgetting what happened before eight years ago, then you’re never really going to be able to put the weather that you experience into this longer-term context that really describes the overall effects of climate change.”

They found people would tweet about unusual weather conditions like extreme heat or cold events, but the more often these events occurred, the fewer the number of people who posted about them, suggesting they had begun to accept them as normal.

“What we show is that, if you have unusual temperatures and this is the first you’ve ever experienced it, that generates a big change on Twitter and people are talking about it a lot,” Moore says. “But if you have that same change … two years in a row, then people begin to stop talking about it. And if you have that same change eight years in a row, then people completely stop talking about it. So what that implies is that people’s idea of normal has shifted from what it used to be to this new state that’s defined by what happened two to eight years ago. And so we’re estimating this is kind of what people think of as normal just based on the rates at which they stop tweeting about unusual temperatures when they get them repeatedly year after year.”

 

[rclab]

4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

 

Rob …. forky was in the military? …As always ….

[NorthShoreWx]

20 minutes ago, rclab said:

Rob …. forky was in the military? …As always ….

Try not to think of it as work...

[WestBabylonWeather]

I’m tired of not having snow threats to track. 

[suzook]

Moving to south Atlanta area in 3 days. Was hoping for a snowfall event before I left. Not happening. Oh well. Guess it's time to move on to the south east forum.

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, suzook said:

Moving to south Atlanta area in 3 days. Was hoping for a snowfall event before I left. Not happening. Oh well. Guess it's time to move on to the south east forum.

At this rate Atlanta will see a 10” storm before we do 

[suzook]

23 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

At this rate Atlanta will see a 10” storm before we do 

LMFAO 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

Merry Christmas everyone.

 

If you're a fan you probably already saw this but for all who missed it, crank!

 

[bluewave]

One of my favorite Irish singers who also left us way too soon. Merry Christmas to everyone.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

GFS, please give us a white Christmas:

No success. We're not 384 hours out.

AI, please give us a white Christmas:

For now, AI grants such wishes. But that may change in the future. Then, as AI "learns" the realities of the New York City area climate, it may well deny such requests.

Last White Christmas in NYC: 2009.

[forkyfork]

it's not christmas it's boxing day eve

[NorthShoreWx]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

One of my favorite Irish singers who also left us way too soon. Merry Christmas to everyone.

 

 

That loss was painful.

[rclab]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

GFS, please give us a white Christmas:

No success. We're not 384 hours out.

AI, please give us a white Christmas:

For now, AI grants such wishes. But that may change in the future. Then, as AI "learns" the realities of the New York City area climate, it may well deny such requests.

Last White Christmas in NYC: 2009.

 

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it's not christmas it's boxing day eve

Happy Boxing Day forky. Stay well read, dry and gifted. As always …

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

That loss was painful.

I know. She was one of the most gifted singer-songwriters of the last 30 to 40 years. 
 

 

[MJO812]

13 years ago today we had a monster snowstorm.

[WX-PA]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

13 years ago today we had a monster snowstorm.

Boxer day blizzard, one of my favorite December snowstorms.

 

 

[IrishRob17]

15 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

the good thing about this weather is when you have a major party in December, you can keep every drink outside without worrying about it freezing and you don’t have to clean up the bar before bed. It’s just a great recipe for nice cold drinks that won’t freeze on you!

 

Unless you like your drinks cold of course…

[Will - Rutgers]

dense frog advisory

[NorthShoreWx]

The latest UN climate models have been indicating that this fog won't lift until we have completely reversed AGW.  So far they are dead-on.

Smithtown, 6PM.  43° fog vis ~0.25mi

Same as yesterday evening, same as Christmas Eve.  Fog never lifted today.  

[IrishRob17]

52 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The latest UN climate models have been indicating that this fog won't lift until we have completely reversed AGW.  So far they are dead-on.

Smithtown, 6PM.  43° fog vis ~0.25mi

Same as yesterday evening, same as Christmas Eve.  Fog never lifted today.  

A few serious wrecks on I84 near Greenville today due to the fog, next to none IMBY thankfully.  

[Nibor]

22 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it's not christmas it's boxing day eve

[donsutherland1]

The GEFS 35-days Ensemble Control snowfall map was posted on Twitter/X this morning. That raises the following question:

What is the difference between Fantasy 1 and Fantasy 2?

Fantasy 1 exists only in the virtual realm thanks to AI. Fantasy 2 will almost certainly disappear with the passage of time. Only a single January has seen 30" or more snowfall in Central Park (2011: 36.0") and just four months since January 1869 have seen 30" or more snowfall.

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The GEFS 35-days Ensemble Control snowfall map was posted on Twitter/X this morning. That raises the following question:

What is the difference between Fantasy 1 and Fantasy 2?

Fantasy 1 exists only in the virtual realm thanks to AI. Fantasy 2 will almost certainly disappear with the passage of time. Only a single January has seen 30" or more snowfall in Central Park (2011: 36.0") and just four months since January 1869 have seen 30" or more snowfall.

that's a really pretty scene  in Fantasy 1

question for you Don....

when was the last time we saw snow dust (you know what I'm talking about-- the kind of fine crystalline snow dust that sparkles in the air even under clear skies?)  Was February 2015 the last time that happened in the city or long island or anywhere nearby?

 

[donsutherland1]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

that's a really pretty scene  in Fantasy 1

question for you Don....

when was the last time we saw snow dust (you know what I'm talking about-- the kind of fine crystalline snow dust that sparkles in the air even under clear skies?)  Was February 2015 the last time that happened in the city or long island or anywhere nearby?

 

That's the last time I can recall seeing some of it.

[Will - Rutgers]

duckwalking rain enjoyers stay winning

[donsutherland1]

% of Below and Above Normal Days in New York City. The last year with a majority of below normal days was 2009 when 56% of days were cooler than normal.

[USCG RS]

On 12/26/2023 at 1:53 AM, rclab said:

 

Happy Boxing Day forky. Stay well read, dry and gifted. As always …

I've been wondering where my yearbook photo went