Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[Brian5671]

On 7/10/2024 at 10:40 PM, Nibor said:

https://imgur.com/a/LaZRbDB
 

Witnessed a Peregrine Falcon swoop in and feast on a Pigeon down at Astoria Park tonight. 

Imagine getting eaten alive....

[Stormlover74]

[donsutherland1]

Following the heavy rain that started the day, the clouds broke and it turned noticeably warmer in the afternoon. It will turn even hotter tomorrow. Early next week will likely be very hot and humid. Widespread 95°-100° high temperatures are likely Monday through Wednesday. Cooler air will arrive late in the week.

In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continued to recede.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was -2.77 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.261 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.9° (2.4° above normal). That would rank 2024 as the 10th hottest July on record.

 

[Dark Star]

On 7/12/2024 at 10:11 AM, MJO812 said:

Alot of sharks are popping up near out latitude

and yet Channel 11 "News"  had a "Shark Expert" saying that there were not a lot of sharks, at least close to shore.  The "expert" was all over the place, contradicting himself left and right.  When asked why the variability in sharks numbers near the beaches, he said he doesn't know, but there is a good reason and someday they will find out.  Then he said that sharks are not interested in humans, and the next sentence said if there is a shark near the beach to clear the water...

[etudiant]

On 7/12/2024 at 12:39 PM, Brian5671 said:

Imagine getting eaten alive....

Pretty sure Peregrine strikes kill the victim, but beyond that, they usually start with the head, which kills quickly. However, other raptors are less considerate, so it is not unknown.

[Cyg]

Hearing some katydids for the first time this summer 

[Stormlover74]

 

[BxEngine]

8 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

Ive never felt so personally attacked…

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

heat lightning is the iceberg lettuce of severe

And our forum is the salad dressing. Stay well, Will. As always ….

[David-LI]

[Intensewind002]

Going to see Twisters tonight, should be fun. Im probably the only weather enthusiast never to have seen the original too haha

[Stormlover74]

15 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

Going to see Twisters tonight, should be fun. Im probably the only weather enthusiast never to have seen the original too haha

Going to see it tonight

[doncat]

Went to see the original in 1996 with my 11 year old niece... going to see the new one with that same niece who's now a 39 year old nurse who picked up the weather bug from me at an early age lol. She's mainly into severe weather, tornados, hail etc.

[Stormlover74]

8 hours ago, doncat said:

Went to see the original in 1996 with my 11 year old niece... going to see the new one with that same niece who's now a 39 year old nurse who picked up the weather bug from me at an early age lol. She's mainly into severe weather, tornados, hail etc.

What did you think? Overall I thought decent but maybe not as good as the original 

[doncat]

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

What did you think? Overall I thought decent but maybe not as good as the original 

Didn't go yet...have to arrange it with my niece. Remakes are never as good as the original it seems.

[BlizzLuv]

On 7/20/2024 at 8:17 PM, Intensewind002 said:

Going to see Twisters tonight, should be fun. Im probably the only weather enthusiast never to have seen the original too haha

I never saw the original either, though I did do the ride with my son and wife twice at Universal...lol.

[Dark Star]

23 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Going to see it tonight

I wasn't too crazy about it.  Then again, I feel that way about most entertainment media...

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I wasn't too crazy about it.  Then again, I feel that way about most entertainment media...

Yeah I could see that. Haven't been to a movie in like 7 years 

[donsutherland1]

For those who are interested, Joe Bastardi is continuing to point to a cold winter in the East. He used one specific run of the CFSv2.

Here's what the CFSv2 looks like on the NCEP page when using a fixed range of initialization cycles (one should not use a single initialization for the tool).

Of course, skill is low from this timeframe. Last year, the CFSv2 had the East near normal for Winter 2023-24. It turned out to be among the warmest winters on record.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For those who are interested, Joe Bastardi is continuing to point to a cold winter in the East. He used one specific run of the CFSv2.

Here's what the CFSv2 looks like on the NCEP page when using a fixed range of initialization cycles (one should not use a single initialization for the tool).

Of course, skill is low from this timeframe. Last year, the CFSv2 had the East near normal for Winter 2023-24. It turned out to be among the warmest winters on record.

 Thanks for posting this. He keeps posting specific next to impossible extreme cold Weather Bell CFS runs. Note that I said WeatherBell CFS runs rather than just CFS runs. The WB generated CFS maps are being run on seriously flawed algorithms. For one thing many have been showing SST anomalies consistent with a +PDO, including a 4000 mile long by 1000 mile wide of solid BN SSTa stretching from just E of Japan to just N of Hawaii! Other companies’ CFS runs always have the near opposite (strong -PDO)!

 Notice on this 2m temp map what keeps showing up on about all of these very cold runs: whereas S Lake Michigan is near the coldest in the US the same runs practically ALWAYS have a small area of near normal in N Lake Michigan or just 250 miles to the NNE! And then they often go back to extreme cold just to the N in S Canada! They’re severely flawed.

[GaWx]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For those who are interested, Joe Bastardi is continuing to point to a cold winter in the East. He used one specific run of the CFSv2.

Here's what the CFSv2 looks like on the NCEP page when using a fixed range of initialization cycles (one should not use a single initialization for the tool).

Of course, skill is low from this timeframe. Last year, the CFSv2 had the East near normal for Winter 2023-24. It turned out to be among the warmest winters on record.

Don,
 Check the 0Z 7/23 WB CFS run below. It has the same pattern of extreme cold anomaly over S Lake Michigan (-8C/-14.4F) much warmer (normal) over N Lake Michigan, and back to very cold in S Canada (-4C/-7.2F):

 

 

[LibertyBell]

Humidity sucks though and now most of you should understand why I said we need to suck out about 20% of the water on this planet and move it to Mars or some other space colony.

The amount of water vapor in our atmosphere is literally sickening and we dont need 70% of our planet covered in water, 50% is just fine thank you very much.

This has not been a hot summer though.

The West has had the hot summer.

anyone who thinks this has been a hot summer, this has not been a hot summer.

We have had a total of 5 days of 90+ and the highest was 92.

The city only touched 95 one day.

[BxEngine]

Stop spamming. 

[JetsPens87]

On 7/25/2024 at 7:22 AM, LibertyBell said:

Humidity sucks though and now most of you should understand why I said we need to suck out about 20% of the water on this planet and move it to Mars or some other space colony.

The amount of water vapor in our atmosphere is literally sickening and we dont need 70% of our planet covered in water, 50% is just fine thank you very much.

This has not been a hot summer though.

The West has had the hot summer.

anyone who thinks this has been a hot summer, this has not been a hot summer.

We have had a total of 5 days of 90+ and the highest was 92.

The city only touched 95 one day.

It's been one of the hottest summers on record here.

[TheClimateChanger]

40 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

It's been one of the hottest summers on record here.

I would agree. There seems to be little objective evidence that this has "not been a hot summer" in the New York City metro area. It looks like it's top 3-5 to date at all of the local climate sites. I do note there's been a push on this forum to redefine what a hot summer is to strictly look at the number of 90+ days and/or to consider only one's subjective feelings rather than objective facts. But even with the 90+ metric, 2024 is doing pretty well in most places. 

At Central Park, only 18 years (dating to 1869) have had more days at or above 90F. And this is despite the encroaching jungle / shading of the ASOS. At Newark, only 10 years have had more days at or above 90F [3 of those 10 with just 1 more]. It's actually not normal for there to be constant 90s in the New York City area. If you think it is, you are misremembering.  Now, it is true that JFK has only had 2 such days, which is actually one of the lower tallies there. But that's not representative of much of the region.

 

[Roger Smith]

Just a reminder for regular entrants, forecast contest is open and deadline is Wed nite. 

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/30/2024 at 8:12 AM, JetsPens87 said:

It's been one of the hottest summers on record here.

I know, it sucks we were left out of all the fun.

I think there's a connection between inland hot summers and rain/snow lines in the winter.... might want to look into that.

JFK has had a measly 2 90 degree days all year and none in July.

Here on the south shore we have had 5 in total for the year and 2 in July.

I think the rain/snow line will set up the same way in the winter, expect a lot of changeover storms with the coast getting not more than 2-3 inches in any storm.  Just like the highest temps we've had this summer have been 91-92.

 

My hottest summers were 1983, 2002 and 2010.

Two of those were followed by great winters here too.

[LibertyBell]

On 7/30/2024 at 8:51 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

I would agree. There seems to be little objective evidence that this has "not been a hot summer" in the New York City metro area. It looks like it's top 3-5 to date at all of the local climate sites. I do note there's been a push on this forum to redefine what a hot summer is to strictly look at the number of 90+ days and/or to consider only one's subjective feelings rather than objective facts. But even with the 90+ metric, 2024 is doing pretty well in most places. 

At Central Park, only 18 years (dating to 1869) have had more days at or above 90F. And this is despite the encroaching jungle / shading of the ASOS. At Newark, only 10 years have had more days at or above 90F [3 of those 10 with just 1 more]. It's actually not normal for there to be constant 90s in the New York City area. If you think it is, you are misremembering.  Now, it is true that JFK has only had 2 such days, which is actually one of the lower tallies there. But that's not representative of much of the region.

 

It's more than just that.  It's a very hot summer inland yes-- but NYC has had zero days higher than 95.  Here on Long Island it's even worse. No day hotter than 91-92 and JFK didn't have a single 90 degree day in July.

1983, 2002 and 2010 were all much much hotter for us.

Add in 1991 and 1993 for the city too.

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

lack of storm activity bumming me out, i don’t entirely mind this weather if there’s some contrast to it—but it’s just a slog for most of the year

On the flip side Omaha lost power for a week after those storms last night 

[Cfa]

Not much sea breeze storms this year for LI despite the consistently high dew points. A couple of summers ago they were popping up every other day like in Florida.