Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[SRRTA22]

It's not like we had Ida drop 8 inches of rain on us a couple of years ago...

Missed another one by miles. Absolutely crazy how common these "1000" year events are becoming. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Iceland, baby. 

Reykjanes peninsula (this is right under Reykjavik) just had its third eruption since 2021 after being silent since the Middle Ages. 

 

[donsutherland1]

With growing prospects that the ongoing heatwave in parts of the Southwest could be among the region's worst in history, a handful of social media accounts have been loudly and increasingly frantically trying to dismiss and discount the severity of the heatwave.

Claims that a 1974 heatwave, currently Phoenix's longest on record (18 consecutive days), was more severe have been made. The ongoing heatwave could eclipse it in duration and already exceeds it in the intensity of the heat (3.1° warmer so far). The most severe heat still lies ahead, as Phoenix will experience an extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 methodology).

Such accounts are not credible sources of meteorological or climate information, especially as those in the affected region who are inclined to accept their false narrative could put themselves at unnecessary risk. NWS Phoenix, Accuweather, and other private sources have been doing their utmost to warn residents of the heat-related risks. Yet, some accounts are trying to distract and confuse local residents.

On account of the absurd social media claims, here's how the current heatwave and the 1974 heatwave compare:

Today saw a low temperature of 94° in Phoenix (not factored in above), which surpassed the record of 93° that was set in 2020 and tied in 2022. Since Phoenix's records were kept beginning in August 1895, Phoenix has had 18 low temperatures of 94° or above. All of those low temperatures have occurred since 2003.

Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, and even Death Valley, could experience extreme heat events from the current heatwave. For the first time, Del Rio and Laredo could experience simultaneous extreme heat events with Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Death Valley, which illustrates the expansive area of extreme heat. 

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today saw a low temperature of 94° in Phoenix (not factored in above), which surpassed the record of 93° that was set in 2020 and tied in 2022. Since Phoenix's records were kept beginning in August 1895, Phoenix has had 18 low temperatures of 94° or above. All of those low temperatures have occurred since 2003.

Tough combination of CC+UHI expansion. CC has seen minimum temperatures increasing faster than maximums at both rural and urban locations. The population has nearly tripled at Phoenix since 1974. So we can add an expanding heat island to the mix for ridiculously high daily minimum temperatures. I don’t see the appeal or living in that climate during the warm season. 

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tough combination of CC+UHI expansion. CC has seen minimum temperatures increasing faster than maximums at both rural and urban locations. The population has nearly tripled at Phoenix since 1974. So we can add an expanding heat island to the mix for ridiculously high daily minimum temperatures. I don’t see the appeal or living in that climate during the warm season. 

Yes. NWS Phoenix has noted the combination of climate change and the UHI. Phoenix continues to grow rapidly, despite water issues and rising heat.

[Nibor]

 

 

jfc

[Volcanic Winter]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t see the appeal or living in that climate during the warm season. 

I would frankly rather live in Antarctica than the desert southwest. Find me in an igloo near Mt Erebus. 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I would frankly rather live in Antarctica than the desert southwest. Find me in an igloo near Mt Erebus. 

The US population migration patterns are moving in the wrong direction for the current and future climate projections. The Northeast and Great Lakes should be the go to destinations for the way climate is a changing. But people have been leaving this region and heading south and west. Those areas have been experiencing serious drought, wildfires, heat, and major hurricanes. I will take my chances in a region that can experience too much rain like the other day over fires and multiyear drought. Plus those ares are also prone to flooding cycles also. 

[Jersey Andrew]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The US population migration patterns are moving in the wrong direction for the current and future climate projections. The Northeast and Great Lakes should be the go to destinations for the way climate is a changing. But people have been leaving this region and heading south and west. Those areas have been experiencing serious drought, wildfires, heat, and major hurricanes. I will take my chances in a region that can experience too much rain like the other day over fires and multiyear drought. Plus those ares are also prone to flooding cycles also. 

The humidity on East Coast is getting more miserable and unbearable each summer. Grew up in Virginia suburbs of DC in the 1980s and 1990s and it is way more uncomfortable now compared to then. Also lived a few summers out in Las Vegas and became well acclimated to the dry heat but that’s just me personally.

[Nibor]

My folks retired to Las Cruces, New Mexico. I couldn’t understand why until I visited them for the first time. The desert is incredibly enchanting and beautiful. Living in the desert comes with serious questions of sustainability. There are laws where my parents live that prohibits them from having non native plants on their property and they have their own well that’s actually heated by seismic activity. They’ve installed solar panels on their roof that more than powers their house and the excess gets directed back into the grid. Also having a grass lawn is very illegal. I believe there are ways to make the southwest sustainable but it’s going to require investments in infrastructure and a better understanding and conservation of the water shed for the entire region. 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

The humidity on East Coast is getting more miserable and unbearable each summer. Grew up in Virginia suburbs of DC in the 1980s and 1990s and it is way more uncomfortable now compared to then. Also lived a few summers out in Las Vegas and became well acclimated to the dry heat but that’s just me personally.

That’s true. But even dry heat which gets so high really doesn’t appeal to me either. I have always enjoyed the cooler seasons here more but I track everything and find interest in the variety. The one truth about the cold is you can always add more layers but there is only so much you can take off in extreme heat. Though the walks to the bus stop in the 76-77 winter we’re pretty tough. But not as bad as 100° with a 75° dewpoint. That’s just me. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Bluewave, that’s exactly how I look at it as well. Cold is easier to mitigate. And you’re not sweating bullets and saturating your clothes. 

Not to mention cold air is refreshing, IMO. I realize I’m the inverse of the majority of people but cold weather makes me want to be outside, and when it’s (this) hot if I can’t be in a body of water I don’t leave my computer. 

Winter hiking in the right location can be really spectacular as well, I wish more people gave it a chance. Though it does require more gear / prep. We don’t really do much this time of year, just too hot all up and down the east coast. 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Bluewave, that’s exactly how I look at it as well. Cold is easier to mitigate. And you’re not sweating bullets and saturating your clothes. 

Not to mention cold air is refreshing, IMO. I realize I’m the inverse of the majority of people but cold weather makes me want to be outside, and when it’s (this) hot if I can’t be in a body of water I don’t leave my computer. 

Winter hiking in the right location can be really spectacular as well, I wish more people gave it a chance. Though it does require more gear / prep. We don’t really do much this time of year, just too hot all up and down the east coast. 

This has to be one of my favorite weather short films of the last decade or so.

 

 

[rclab]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has to be one of my favorite weather short films of the last decade or so.

 

 

Thank you bluewave. What saddens me is that by 2116 it may be shown and re-titled as ‘A Memory Of Snow.’ Stay well, as always …..

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, rclab said:

Thank you bluewave. What saddens me is that by 2116 it may be shown and re-titled as ‘A Memory Of Snow.’ Stay well, as always …..

It’s great to speak with you again. I was born a few days after a famous 1960s KU event. So you can say it’s in my meteorological birth chart. 

[rclab]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s great to speak with you again. I was born a few days after a famous 1960s KU event. So you can say it’s in my meteorological birth chart. 

I was in high school and remember that, school is cancelled event . Stay well, as always …

[Maureen]

Reading through the main thread I see winter has been canceled in record time this year, we didn’t even make it out of July! 

[Volcanic Winter]

I mean I’ve seen a reasonable amount of optimism regarding winter overall. We’re out of the perma-Niña and there’s a shot of a moderate -> strong basin wide Niño with potentially enhanced western forcing from the WPAC warm pool (as per @bluewave) all of which can be good for East Coast winters. 

Maybe it still goes super or stays further east based (generally less favorable), but I don’t see any indications that we should be cancelling winter yet. And even with a super we can still get the one off KU a la 2016.

I’m rather excited; an average snow season this year would feel like getting buried after the miserable years we’ve had lately. Perhaps we’ll have a relatively mild but snowier winter; most would take that. 

I may stand alone in hoping for a winter so cold we see a brief resurgence of the Laurentide ice sheet, but I suppose with respect to reality I’ll have to settle for ‘mild and snowier than last year’ .

[forkyfork]

guys did you know long island hasn't been getting rain

[Allsnow]

On 7/13/2023 at 9:30 AM, Maureen said:

Reading through the main thread I see winter has been canceled in record time this year, we didn’t even make it out of July! 

Winter 24-25 will rock 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

42 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

guys did you know long island hasn't been getting rain

Suffolk has been doing great. It’s a Nassau thing 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Winter 24-25 will rock 

What do you think about this winter? Awful or chance of at least decent?

Unless we go full torch or locked in +++AO like 19-20 I can’t imagine it’s as bad as last year. Just IMHO. I’d like to see 20 inches at NYC, hopefully at least 15 for me. City is around 29-30 avg, right by me is about 22-24.

Maybe one big event + one moderate, perhaps the moderate stays north of me and gets the city. 

Still bad, but not last year levels of bad. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What do you think about this winter? Awful or chance of at least decent?

Unless we go full torch or locked in +++AO like 19-20 I can’t imagine it’s as bad as last year. 

I don’t think it will be as bad as last winter (very hard for it to be worst) but the strength of the Nino makes me nervous 

[Volcanic Winter]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t think it will be as bad as last winter (very hard for it to be worst) but the strength of the Nino makes me nervous 

Yeah, I agree. Been following the ENSO thread closely. Snowman of course feels we’re going 2.0+ in 3.4 with an east lean, but a lot of others feel it’ll be basin wide and a bit more tempered (below super levels). And then there’s the question of RONI and the WPAC warm pool. 
 

IDK, I’m happy with where things sit right now in the sense that it certainly could look worse relative to it being July still. 

Almost certainly taking another New England hiking trip this winter regardless, can’t imagine I’ll completely shut out of snow in Feb for my bday as I was when I went to Danbury last year for three days. Still some good hiking though. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, I agree. Been following the ENSO thread closely. Snowman of course feels we’re going 2.0+ in 3.4 with an east lean, but a lot of others feel it’ll be basin wide and a bit more tempered (below super levels). And then there’s the question of RONI and the WPAC warm pool. 
 

IDK, I’m happy with where things sit right now in the sense that it certainly could look worse relative to it being July still. 

Plus enso isn’t everything…more importantly it’s the pac and polar vortex strength.

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Plus enso isn’t everything…more importantly it’s the pac and polar vortex strength.

 

 

Definitely man, just that ENSO is one of the easier variables to look at six months out is all. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Definitely man, just that ENSO is one of the easier variables to look at six months out is all. 

I think it all comes down to wether we get the nino blockbuster. Feb 83, Jan 16. But others 97/98 and 72/73 were fails. One thing that’s almost certain, it will be above normal temp wise 

[jm1220]

On 7/12/2023 at 3:07 PM, bluewave said:

The US population migration patterns are moving in the wrong direction for the current and future climate projections. The Northeast and Great Lakes should be the go to destinations for the way climate is a changing. But people have been leaving this region and heading south and west. Those areas have been experiencing serious drought, wildfires, heat, and major hurricanes. I will take my chances in a region that can experience too much rain like the other day over fires and multiyear drought. Plus those ares are also prone to flooding cycles also. 

107 in Austin TX yesterday and 108 the day before. And it’s not a “dry heat” there-heat index is over 110 when it’s that hot. I think their all time high was 111 in 2011 when they were in a La Niña drought. So they’re not far from it. When I was there it hit 104-105 a few times. Anything 100 and over is absolutely unbearable, like being in an oven. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think it all comes down to wether we get the nino blockbuster. Feb 83, Jan 16. But others 97/98 and 72/73 were fails. One thing that’s almost certain, it will be above normal temp wise 

Pretty much. If we get into a strong Nino we’ll be battling warm air but the Nino charged southern jet is good for surprises. Maybe if the W PAC stays warm the forcing can be near the dateline which encourages an eastern trough. 

[IrishRob17]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

107 in Austin TX yesterday and 108 the day before. And it’s not a “dry heat” there-heat index is over 110 when it’s that hot. I think their all time high was 111 in 2011 when they were in a La Niña drought. So they’re not far from it. When I was there it hit 104-105 a few times. Anything 100 and over is absolutely unbearable, like being in an oven. 

My oldest son lives in Grapevine where its currently 103/74 with a heat index of 116.  The wife and I don't visit there this time of year...