Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[forkyfork]

we'll get a stalled front from montreal to dallas 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

1 year

 

This map is off though, you don't have to be that far north to get into totality, you just need to get to Syracuse.  I saw TWC posting the same map.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

we'll get a stalled front from montreal to dallas 

stupid south east ridge is sending the path of totality to our far north, you can never win with that thing!

[BxEngine]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This map is off though, you don't have to be that far north to get into totality, you just need to get to Syracuse.  I saw TWC posting the same map.

 

Zoom in. 

[IrishRob17]

21 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Zoom in. 

Maybe zoom is hard to use too?

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Maybe zoom is hard to use too?

it crashed my computer lol, I need to not have 140+ tabs open (I forgot the exact number lol)

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Zoom in. 

I saw, weird it's on the edge, I might need to go a little further north.

Also, I didn't know Syracuse was that far north, I thought it was in Central NYS =\

 

[Nibor]

On 4/9/2023 at 12:17 PM, LibertyBell said:

I saw, weird it's on the edge, I might need to go a little further north.

Also, I didn't know Syracuse was that far north, I thought it was in Central NYS =\

 

I applaud your excursion into the uncharted northern territories beyond the George Washington Bridge. I pray the polar bears don’t get you. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Shiveluch just produced a spectacular sub-plinian eruption caused by the collapse or partial collapse of its growing lava dome (which has been its current mode of activity for quite a while). 
 

https://www.reddit.com/r/Volcanoes/comments/12ieudx/shiveluch_volcanic_eruption_11042023_kamchatka/

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/shiveluch/news/208903/Shiveluch-volcano-Kamchatka-massive-eruption-with-huge-ash-cloud-up-to-16-km-heavy-ash-rain-darkened.html

The second link goes to VolcanoDiscovery where you can see multiple reports on the eruptive sequence.

This type of behavior is what caused the VEI 4 Soufriere eruption two years ago in the Caribbean. 
 

Definitely a spectacular, voluminous blast. It could be up to VEI 4 level, but I’ll have to see more footage and analysis, especially of the duration of the event. Typically lava dome collapse eruptions are temporally brief events (often, but not always). However, if it was only a partial collapse that caused this eruption, more could follow. 

[Cfa]

I’ve never been beyond Cracker Barrel in Fishkill, does that count as upstate?

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, Nibor said:

I applaud your excursion into the uncharted northern territories beyond the George Washington Bridge. I pray the polar bears don’t get you. 

I do too, I just hope I don't get lost up there looking for the total solar eclipse.

Just like tourists come down here and get lost looking up at skyscrapers, I can totally see myself getting into an accident trying to move around while looking up at the sun lol.

 

[JTA66]

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Shiveluch just produced a spectacular sub-plinian eruption caused by the collapse or partial collapse of its growing lava dome (which has been its current mode of activity for quite a while). 
 

https://www.reddit.com/r/Volcanoes/comments/12ieudx/shiveluch_volcanic_eruption_11042023_kamchatka/

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/shiveluch/news/208903/Shiveluch-volcano-Kamchatka-massive-eruption-with-huge-ash-cloud-up-to-16-km-heavy-ash-rain-darkened.html

The second link goes to VolcanoDiscovery where you can see multiple reports on the eruptive sequence.

This type of behavior is what caused the VEI 4 Soufriere eruption two years ago in the Caribbean. 
 

Definitely a spectacular, voluminous blast. It could be up to VEI 4 level, but I’ll have to see more footage and analysis, especially of the duration of the event. Typically lava dome collapse eruptions are temporally brief events (often, but not always). However, if it was only a partial collapse that caused this eruption, more could follow. 

I was hoping you would comment on this. Always curious to see what if any impacts eruptions could have on our local weather down the line.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Shiveluch just produced a spectacular sub-plinian eruption caused by the collapse or partial collapse of its growing lava dome (which has been its current mode of activity for quite a while). 
 

https://www.reddit.com/r/Volcanoes/comments/12ieudx/shiveluch_volcanic_eruption_11042023_kamchatka/

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/shiveluch/news/208903/Shiveluch-volcano-Kamchatka-massive-eruption-with-huge-ash-cloud-up-to-16-km-heavy-ash-rain-darkened.html

The second link goes to VolcanoDiscovery where you can see multiple reports on the eruptive sequence.

This type of behavior is what caused the VEI 4 Soufriere eruption two years ago in the Caribbean. 
 

Definitely a spectacular, voluminous blast. It could be up to VEI 4 level, but I’ll have to see more footage and analysis, especially of the duration of the event. Typically lava dome collapse eruptions are temporally brief events (often, but not always). However, if it was only a partial collapse that caused this eruption, more could follow. 

Just saw something on the news today research on volcanoes in Hawaii "talking" to each other-- what is that about?

 

[Volcanic Winter]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Just saw something on the news today research on volcanoes in Hawaii "talking" to each other-- what is that about?

 

Mauna Loa and Kilauea are linked deep underground as they “share” the Hawaiian Hotspot. They’re also very spatially close to one another as Kilauea is sort of a very hot wart on the flank of Mauna Loa, and there are theories that suggest the activity of one impacts the activity of the other. There have been instances of seismic activity at one registering a change at the other, without being familiar with the article something along these lines is probably what they’re talking about. 

But assuming mainstream news it’s likely an exaggerated interpretation meant to sound interesting to the general audience. 

[Volcanic Winter]

55 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I was hoping you would comment on this. Always curious to see what if any impacts eruptions could have on our local weather down the line.

Unfortunately this is probably too small to cause a climate impact by itself, but I want to caution I haven’t really had a chance to deep dive the info on this event today while at work. My thinking, very preliminarily, is at max a VEI 4 which is an order of magnitude below the sort of eruptions that impart climate impacts favorable for our purposes. 
 

We’ll see though! Looks pretty sizable! But it’s crazy how much explosive eruptions scale upwards, and duration is equally important to overall plume width and height. 

Actually Hunga Tonga was the most intense eruption since the VEI 7 Hatepe eruption from the Taupo supervolcano in New Zealand, circa ~200CE. Despite “only” being a borderline high end 5 to 6, the moment to moment intensity of the short hour long main eruption sequence was similar to a VEI 7! Most people don’t realize this. Had HTHH lasted longer, it would’ve been a substantially larger eruption. It was very much like a large natural nuke detonation and was over and done extremely quickly. 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Unfortunately this is probably too small to cause a climate impact by itself, but I want to caution I haven’t really had a chance to deep dive the info on this event today while at work. My thinking, very preliminarily, is at max a VEI 4 which is an order of magnitude below the sort of eruptions that impart climate impacts favorable for our purposes. 
 

We’ll see though! Looks pretty sizable! But it’s crazy how much explosive eruptions scale upwards, and duration is equally important to overall plume width and height. 

Actually Hunga Tonga was the most intense eruption since the VEI 7 Hatepe eruption from the Taupo supervolcano in New Zealand, circa ~200CE. Despite “only” being a borderline high end 5 to 6, the moment to moment intensity of the short hour long main eruption sequence was similar to a VEI 7! Most people don’t realize this. Had HTHH lasted longer, it would’ve been a substantially larger eruption. It was very much like a large natural nuke detonation and was over and done extremely quickly. 

Didn't Hatepe or Hautepe cause a super tsunami?

That was the most powerful eruption in recorded history?

 

[BxEngine]

11 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

they should close the office when it's this nice out.  they should close the office in general

Come to the bronx. First softball game of the season this mornin.

[IrishRob17]

20 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Come to the bronx. First softball game of the season this mornin.

Can't help but root for whatever team you're playing against. 

[LibertyBell]

On 4/11/2023 at 9:19 PM, Will - Rutgers said:

they should close the office when it's this nice out.  they should close the office in general

So hoping the weather is like this for the eclipse next year.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Copying a post I made on Reddit regarding the magnitude of the Shiveluch eruption:

Apparently a professor stated it released about .2 Tg (teragrams) of SO2, which is about half of the Soufriere VEI4 from 2020-21. Update: Apparently this figure is being revised up to .36 Tg, which is a substantial increase. I'll try to get a source and update this comment later.

Just from that alone, this could be a high VEI 3 to low end / borderline VEI 4. 

That's just a guestimate based off the SO2 release which may be inaccurate for various reasons (could be especially gas laden or even the opposite).

Also going off another recent eruption, Calbuco in 2015, which released .295 Tg and had a volume of .27 km³ which is a VEI 4.
 

——

So IMO we’re looking at a VEI 4 considering the revised sulfur figure. Pretty large event all things considered, though small to impart any climate impact which was also true of Soufriere which had a similar sulfur release to the revised figure. Perhaps we’ll get another large eruption this year? Keeping eyes on a few systems, though there’s never a guarantee any particular one will go big. 
 

Just for a point of comparison, Pinatubo 1991 released ~20 Tg of sulfur. Laki in the  late 18th century was over 100, though not all of that massive quantity reached the stratosphere as the eruption was predominantly effusive though it did have explosive components, and I theorize a lot of gas was still lofted high enough to hit the climate system riding on co-ignimbrite plumes and intense thermal updrafts from the insane heat of the massive eruption. Still, much of that insane sulfur flux stayed trapped in the troposphere and ultimately killed a large quantity of people in the UK as it migrated, and it killed something like ~20% of Iceland’s population along with an enormous quantity of livestock. It was a truly terrible weather event that’s worth reading about. 

[Dark Star]

Any guesses on how little rain we get this weekend?

[Stormlover74]

26 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Any guesses on how little rain we get this weekend?

Less than .25", most places under a tenth

[Juliancolton]

Summerlike temps perfectly coinciding with peak flowering bulbs and trees has really been an experience. Almost makes a person reconsider their disdain for spring as a concept.

[Intensewind002]

33 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Summerlike temps perfectly coinciding with peak flowering bulbs and trees has really been an experience. Almost makes a person reconsider their disdain for spring as a concept.

Up until I’m reminded that all the bees and wasps are waking up, I don’t hate them, because they’re good for the environment, but I still have an irrational fear of them. It’s weird because I’m fine with any other bugs.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Summerlike temps perfectly coinciding with peak flowering bulbs and trees has really been an experience. Almost makes a person reconsider their disdain for spring as a concept.

2002 was another one where this happened, very blue skies, high temps and low humidity......absolute perfection!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said:

Up until I’m reminded that all the bees and wasps are waking up, I don’t hate them, because they’re good for the environment, but I still have an irrational fear of them. It’s weird because I’m fine with any other bugs.

I find there are less bugs around when it's very hot and dry

[coastalplainsnowman]

Being inside one year now for the April 8th solar eclipse, I'm thinking of looking to book a room someplace in western new york directly in the path.  I was wondering if anyone has thoughts on where might be a good town to visit?  Trying to find someplace that will have some decent hotels but enough off the beaten path that it won't be jam packed, and also on the southern edge of the track..  Any advice would be much appreciated!

[JerseyWx]

10 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Summerlike temps perfectly coinciding with peak flowering bulbs and trees has really been an experience. Almost makes a person reconsider their disdain for spring as a concept.

This has been an early start to spring with the warmth.  A lot of stuff blooming and starting to turn green.  We get a cool down now but next week looks to warm up again (not like this, but more seasonable).

I do have to say though, the heat the last two days has really thrown my brain a curve.  It's weird seeing spring blooms with 90 degree temps like you alluded to.

[Dark Star]

On 4/14/2023 at 8:20 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Less than .25", most places under a tenth

Looks like you hit it!  0.15" in Newark...

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Dark Star said:

Looks like you hit it!  0.15" in Newark...

Lol but places to the west did quite well