weatherwiz Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 I am hoping to spend a good chunk of this weekend formulating some thoughts on the upcoming winter. I've always found seasonal forecasting to be quite intriguing, albeit stressful but haven't really been able to dabble much into it. Started getting back into it last fall. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 maybe a one storm winter with that storm getting blocked south of new england? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: maybe a one storm winter with that storm getting blocked south of new england? Lol What? This is too funny. Ya, cuz October tells a lot about the upcoming winter……said nobody ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, forkyfork said: maybe a one storm winter with that storm getting blocked south of new england? Jan 2016? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Is this a reliable forecast at this juncture? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Is this a reliable forecast at this juncture? I would take that, I like snow at 12 degrees but any snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kazimirkai Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 52 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Is this a reliable forecast at this juncture? Well here's last years forecast compared to the last years temperature/precipitation anomalies. I don't think many meteorology enthusiasts take the Farmers Almanacs seriously (in my experience). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Ouch https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1712554806332801170?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Torch! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 that output doesn't even make sense. the SW US would get crushed given how strong the STJ is. even in strong-super Ninos 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 least snowy years include 2002-03, 2012-13. and 2014-15. LMAO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ouch https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1712554806332801170?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Beat me to it. Posting solely for laughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: least snowy years include 2002-03, 2012-13. and 2014-15. LMAO LR forecasting is chicken bones and tarot cards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: least snowy years include 2002-03, 2012-13. and 2014-15. LMAO So we should expect the opposite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: least snowy years include 2002-03, 2012-13. and 2014-15. LMAO If those years were the least snowy…when predicted in October, that was a pretty huge fail. Holy smokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: LR forecasting is chicken bones and tarot cards. And voo-doo dolls….ya forgot to throw that one in there too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 You can't go by those. It's hard enough to predict temps, N/M snowfall. You've probably heard Will and myself talk about the H5 anomalies. Those IMO are the "best" idea to get a feel for what may occur. Temps and snowfall will come out from that. But of course, predicting H5 anomalies is not easy too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You can't go by those. It's hard enough to predict temps, N/M snowfall. You've probably heard Will and myself talk about the H5 anomalies. Those IMO are the "best" idea to get a feel for what may occur. Temps and snowfall will come out from that. But of course, predicting H5 anomalies is not easy too. I've never been a fan of snowfall predictions in seasonal outlooks. IMO, something such as snowfall or even precipitation isn't necessarily tied into the pattern, but more so deviations which happen during pattern evolutions. When you look at seasonal snowfall totals and compare to ENSO, NAO, AO, etc., sure you may see some "correlation" but the correlations aren't very strong in that the spread is still relatively high. While a pattern such as WC ridge and EC trough can be associated with increased snow chances, that doesn't necessarily mean it is going to happen or will occur (which I think everyone understands). I think what's more important is how the pattern is evolving which is very tough to create in composites. You can create H5 anomalies for snowiest and least snowiest winters and certainly draw a quick correlation, however, what that won't tell you is how things evolved leading up to the event. That is more important than just WC ridge/EC trough in the composite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 13, 2023 Author Share Posted October 13, 2023 49 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I've never been a fan of snowfall predictions in seasonal outlooks. IMO, something such as snowfall or even precipitation isn't necessarily tied into the pattern, but more so deviations which happen during pattern evolutions. When you look at seasonal snowfall totals and compare to ENSO, NAO, AO, etc., sure you may see some "correlation" but the correlations aren't very strong in that the spread is still relatively high. While a pattern such as WC ridge and EC trough can be associated with increased snow chances, that doesn't necessarily mean it is going to happen or will occur (which I think everyone understands). I think what's more important is how the pattern is evolving which is very tough to create in composites. You can create H5 anomalies for snowiest and least snowiest winters and certainly draw a quick correlation, however, what that won't tell you is how things evolved leading up to the event. That is more important than just WC ridge/EC trough in the composite. Its both...think of it like the loaded dice analogy to describe GW in that the we have greater potential for warmer outcomes. The pattern does that with respect to snowfall, but it doesn't mean it never deviates....just like we still have colder seasons despite the background signal of GW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its both...think of it like the loaded dice analogy to describe GW in that the we have greater potential for warmer outcomes. The pattern does that with respect to snowfall, but its doesn't mean it never deviates....just like we still have colder seasons despite the background signal of GW. Agreed - good point. I really wish we had a great dataset of like near-miss events. I know the KU books has some cases on these but having such a dataset I think would expand skill set significantly. Of course, there would have to be some definitions to define "near misses". I mean the GFS or CMC or some random model from someone's basement showing a blizzard 10 days out which doesn't verify does not count as a "near miss". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Agreed - good point. I really wish we had a great dataset of like near-miss events. I know the KU books has some cases on these but having such a dataset I think would expand skill set significantly. Of course, there would have to be some definitions to define "near misses". I mean the GFS or CMC or some random model from someone's basement showing a blizzard 10 days out which doesn't verify does not count as a "near miss". That’s going to be a lot of work and take a lot of resources. Near misses can happen both ways - cutters or suppressed waves. And a near miss for SNE can be a direct hit on the MA, and so forth. Not saying it can be done, just that it would need academic research plus reanalysis modeling. Minimum months, likely years of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: That’s going to be a lot of work and take a lot of resources. Near misses can happen both ways - cutters or suppressed waves. And a near miss for SNE can be a direct hit on the MA, and so forth. Not saying it can be done, just that it would need academic research plus reanalysis modeling. Minimum months, likely years of work. Yeah the amount of resources and work would be very large and quite complex. Way above anything my noggin can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 Warnings out https://x.com/weathernetwork/status/1712978349876728211?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2023 Author Share Posted October 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Warnings out https://x.com/weathernetwork/status/1712978349876728211?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Zero chance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 Are you not able to look at previous dates anymore? There used to be a whole thing at the bottom where you could look at different dates going back like several months or even year. https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ssta.daily.current.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Zero chance. Agreed. Such hype and trash. So much crap out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Warnings out https://x.com/weathernetwork/status/1712978349876728211?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg I would like the name of one forecaster currently calling for an historically strong nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I would like the name of one forecaster currently calling for an historically strong nino. I think he's just fishing for responses contrary to the the link he posted about a historically strong El nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2023 Author Share Posted October 14, 2023 3 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I would like the name of one forecaster currently calling for an historically strong nino. Paul Roundy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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