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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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26 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Looking that way from what I can see.  GFS had 2 thirst  traps runs and now this shit.

It had more confluence and a much weather SS wave. Could tell really early on it wasn’t going to work. But I’d rather it be showing this than an over amped wave at this range. 

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO suppressed as well, fwiw. Actually looks like the GFS (at least on the surface) for once

This is fine. But it needs to make a move when it’s around 100-150 hrs. The track usually doesn’t adjust hundreds of miles on me inside that range. Change details yea. Huge shifts less so. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This is fine. But it needs to make a move when it’s around 100-150 hrs. The track usually doesn’t adjust hundreds of miles on me inside that range. Change details yea. Huge shifts less so. 

it does...when its showing snow for us. For the march 4 storm...inside of 120 hours euro moved from off the Carolina to coast to Ohio. Did you forget that?

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2 hours ago, Ji said:

it does...when its showing snow for us. For the march 4 storm...inside of 120 hours euro moved from off the Carolina to coast to Ohio. Did you forget that?

It was still outside 100 when it started that move and it didn’t end up that far north. It tracked to southern oh but secondaried off NJ. Earlier runs had or track to KY then off MD. Biggest problem was they backed off on the cold push. The temps changed more than the track. 
 

Unfortunately we need so much to go right anymore to get snow that it can very much go wrong until the last minute with any one detail going wrong.  But once inside 100 we don’t typically see huge wholesale changes like a suppressed system down off SC ending up a ticked into OC MD solution. Unfortunately going from a tucked off OC to rain only really necessitates about a 50 Mile NW adjustment. Our path to win has way less margin.  Kinda like when the Commanders play the eagles. We saw it’s possible for them to win.  But they have to play their best game possible and hope the eagles turn the ball over 4 times also.  It’s hard. 

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14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Pressure is on me because I have 10 big wigs coming into town next week and they want me to tell them what the weather is going  to be like….

Well that’s easy-just tell them what it’s been doing the whole winter. Some showers with cool breezy conditions. Like PSU keeps saying (correctly) there’s  no cold air. 

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Just looked at the GFS...honestly, I'm game with that type of system even if it's just rain.  Aside from not having much in the way of snow, we've been kinda lacking fun weather, at least aside from local tstorms.  That type of qpf output is uncommon to the say least...the gulf and especially the Atlantic just gets unloaded on our region lol.

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9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Just looked at the GFS...honestly, I'm game with that type of system even if it's just rain.  Aside from not having much in the way of snow, we've been kinda lacking fun weather, at least aside from local tstorms.  That type of qpf output is uncommon to the say least...the gulf and especially the Atlantic just gets unloaded on our region lol.

That’s a 3-incher of a qpf bomb. 

Weenie in me says that’s a preview of what’s to come in the next nino now that the nina is all but dead. 

Question is, will we get the cold air next time around? (next winter, I mean)

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