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March 9-10 Winter Storm


madwx
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52 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

While there has been a general weakening/drying trend across the board, the Euro is way drier than all other models (1/3 to 1/2).

Look at this.... the Euro vs GFS, only two days away from the event.  Seriously, wtf?!?

models-2023030712-f084.qpf_acc-imp.us_mw.gif.194dc09ca6a4c781039fa086db4e8b3b.gif

this is and always was a standard advisory level event at 3-6". Thinking a model showing a 12" snowfall 4-5 days out is fools gold, and has always been. Problem is, we post and follow them so when reality sets in were disssapointed. And I will push back on it's been a winter of events trending south and dryer. It's been a non winter south of Wisconsin and Michigan.Not one event has run the corridor from Iowa through Northern Ohio with a standard 3-6" advisory snow this winter. However, I can tell you that Milwaukee, less than an hour from my back yard had a 8" snowfall on1/29(this also hit most of far north Ill incl Mchenry county), a 6" snowfall on 2/17, and a 3-4" sleet/snow event on 2/22-23.  Heck, less than 5 days ago we had a huge intense cutter through the midwest. They don't always work out for your backyard. It's just been a bad winter for the zone mentioned previuosly. But who knows maybe this one will surprise. If not, the grass will green up, the days are longer, birds are chirping at 5 am, green is poking out of the ground, and baseball is being played in florida and arizona. I love the transition to spring as well.

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Models are painting a big dry slot for eastern and central MN. Nam is trending back north. Should be interesting to see if the globals start trending north too. That’ll be about the only way we get any significant amounts from this system. No matter what it looks like somewhere on the north side will get really screwed by that dryslot.


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Quad Cities issues a watch...a bit of a wide range on totals.

National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
233 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

IAZ040>042-051>054-ILZ001-002-007-080445-
/O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0004.230309T1800Z-230310T1500Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Jo Daviess-
Stephenson-Carroll-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque,
Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Galena, Freeport,
and Mount Carroll
233 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 9
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Illinois and east central and
  northeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
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1 hour ago, Baum said:

this is and always was a standard advisory level event at 3-6". Thinking a model showing a 12" snowfall 4-5 days out is fools gold, and has always been. Problem is, we post and follow them so when reality sets in were disssapointed. And I will push back on it's been a winter of events trending south and dryer. It's been a non winter south of Wisconsin and Michigan.Not one event has run the corridor from Iowa through Northern Ohio with a standard 3-6" advisory snow this winter. However, I can tell you that Milwaukee, less than an hour from my back yard had a 8" snowfall on1/29(this also hit most of far north Ill incl Mchenry county), a 6" snowfall on 2/17, and a 3-4" sleet/snow event on 2/22-23.  Heck, less than 5 days ago we had a huge intense cutter through the midwest. They don't always work out for your backyard. It's just been a bad winter for the zone mentioned previuosly. But who knows maybe this one will surprise. If not, the grass will green up, the days are longer, birds are chirping at 5 am, green is poking out of the ground, and baseball is being played in florida and arizona. I love the transition to spring as well.

Pretty accurate. Had to be north of the state line with the exception of the ice storm and 1/29 event that hit areas hard just north of me like Woodstock. RFD sits at 20.5" for the season while Madison has 45.4" and MKE 28.5". Shit kicker is RFD finished with 21.1" of snow last year just NW of the February to remember corridor. Looking forward to spring also only a month away.

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18 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Pretty accurate. Had to be north of the state line with the exception of the ice storm and 1/29 event that hit areas hard just north of me like Woodstock. RFD sits at 20.5" for the season while Madison has 45.4" and MKE 28.5". Shit kicker is RFD finished with 21.1" of snow last year just NW of the February to remember corridor. Looking forward to spring also only a month away.

Re: RFD snowfall totals, the snow measuring out of there is not the best...So use with caution.

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36 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Pretty accurate. Had to be north of the state line with the exception of the ice storm and 1/29 event that hit areas hard just north of me like Woodstock. RFD sits at 20.5" for the season while Madison has 45.4" and MKE 28.5". Shit kicker is RFD finished with 21.1" of snow last year just NW of the February to remember corridor. Looking forward to spring also only a month away.

RFD sits at 20.5" while I am at 9.2". Wild gradient between here and there. 

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2 hours ago, Lightning said:

March with a -NAO + -AO so some suppression is not unexpected.

Sounds like the perfect combo for some legit march snows in the lower great lakes. Se ridge vs telecommunications. Maybe this winter can end with a bang.

Think dtx will just issue wwa's, prob an hour before event starts. It's weird, they have been issuing warnings on time but more often than not, last minute with wwa's.

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

With every event, the NAM gives more evidence that it should already have been retired.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

 

I hear you. I just don't get the HRR so much? It seems to do well with LES around here atleast. Biggest issue is beyond 24hrs it seems with that. Ofcourse I am seeing it from a imby view which is tiny vs the rest of the lower 48.. 

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18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

With every event, the NAM gives more evidence that it should already have been retired.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

 

On another note.. Back when the NAM was the ETA I don't recall it being as bad except with QPF which always seemed to be overdone. I always thought that if they combined that with the NGM ( always to dry )we would have had a decent model. :yikes:

 

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On 3/7/2023 at 5:24 PM, Frog Town said:

It's kind of weird as we haven't had a SLP take this trajectory across the sub yet.   Curious how the models will handle this Bowling Ball type Low.  

This most definitely isn't a bowling ball situation.

Some seem to have forgotten what exactly one of those look like, but that's not surprising given it's been quite a while since we've actually seen one.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

This most definitely isn't a bowling ball situation.

Some seem to have forgotten what exactly one of those looks like, but that's not surprising given it's been quite a while since we've seen one.

Yeah this is more of a hybrid clipper than anything.

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