Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: It certainly isn't very cold for our area, but not warm either. We know how that goes though. Unless that ridge in northern Europe takes over NAO domain, that will verify in the 60s/70s probably (3 sigma +NAO). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 GEFS has been incrementally moving away from improvements in the HL over the last few runs. EPS has only been slightly hinting. Without some AO/NAO help it's going to be difficult to get the actual cold air down here and shift the boundary to our south for more than 5 mins. The ens means range from slightly below to slightly above avg temps around the end of the month. If our last best chance is end of Feb into early March, we are going to need better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 58 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’d like a 100mi shift to the SE if possible lol I would take the 2.5" over my yard in a heartbeat. One of the few parts of that map that are in the realm of possibility, and would be a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 JB over under for snow rest of the way. IAD/DCA: 12 BWI: 14 PHL: 15 I think my 7 leg same game Parlay at +1600 for the SB looks better. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 WB 12Z EPS at end of run… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS at end of run… Chuck says that's very warm tho I'm with @CAPE...not a torch but not severe cold either. But if we can get that Scan ridging to extend into the NAO that could become a very cold look really quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Chuck says that's very warm tho Super -PNA. Yikes. watch the 60s if -pna/+nao verifies at that time of year. Not going to become a cold look very quickly. We actually need a +pna Luckily, the EPS sucks as a model because it's a follower 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 57 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Chuck says that's very warm tho I'm with @CAPE...not a torch but not severe cold either. But if we can get that Scan ridging to extend into the NAO that could become a very cold look really quickly. Very weak signal for frozen on the EPS between the 20th-27th. Quite different than the GEFS. eta- that h5 look is one that could work if we are super lucky with timing as cold is on the doorstep.. otherwise with the typical bad luck, it's probably more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 hour ago, HighStakes said: JB over under for snow rest of the way. IAD/DCA: 12 BWI: 14 PHL: 15 I think my 7 leg same game Parlay at +1600 for the SB looks better. I’ll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 51 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: I’ll take the under. And JB said -5 average temperature 3/1 thru 4/15… bold forecast; we will see…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: And JB said -5 average temperature 3/1 thru 4/15… bold forecast; we will see…. For where? Montana? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 What is with every Friday afternoon being blustery and turning colder? Are we stuck in some kind of infinite loop? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 The last couple runs of the GEFS suggests the cold comes in before the moisture departs on Friday. Maybe a few flakes in the air? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 GEFS has a -NAO beginning to take shape at the end of the run. Still a relatively mild look for the east verbatim. We shall see how the pattern evolves going forward if the NA is indeed improving. Would help if the Pac cooperates a little. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 17 hours ago, HighStakes said: JB over under for snow rest of the way. IAD/DCA: 12 BWI: 14 PHL: 15 I think my 7 leg same game Parlay at +1600 for the SB looks better. He forgot the . after the 1 right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 WB 0Z EPS PNA….if this verifies we can stick a fork in the rest of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 WB latest GEFS extended throws us the Hail Mary as we go through the first week of March, so I guess we wait to see if that timeframe holds….but obviously we are running out of time at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 All you have to do is just wait a certain amount of days. Say...10? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: All you have to do is just wait a certain amount of days. Say...10? We’re always 10 days away from being 10 days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Did someone say 10 days away? I might be planting tomatoes in March this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Did someone say 10 days away? I might be planting tomatoes in March this year. But what does 10 days after that look like? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: But what does 10 days after that look like? Spring! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Would anyone really be surprised with how ridiculous our weather is that we would go into March with the worst winter of all time and then suddenly we get some winter just when everyone has fully moved onto Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 55 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Would anyone really be surprised with how ridiculous our weather is that we would go into March with the worst winter of all time and then suddenly we get some winter just when everyone has fully moved onto Spring? That’s what I’m thinking. It always looks good 10-15+ days away. But I’m assuming persistence will win out. See you guys next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: That’s what I’m thinking. It always looks good 10-15+ days away. But I’m assuming persistence will win out. See you guys next year. I have made this comment in the past many of times. They should only be allowed to release 5 days weather models to the public. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, Interstate said: I have made this comment in the past many of times. They should only be allowed to release 5 days weather models to the public. I'm 100% in favor of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 WB 12Z EPS…. the 5 day period starting Th. 23rd is the time where we should start to see a pattern transitioning to something more conducive to wintry precipitation. Last 2 panels are just Day 15. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The last edition of the weeklies was useless as it was initialized off a run where the EPS went all in on HL block forming. The next run it went right back to blue up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 New edition of the weeklies isn't bad at all at h5 though. Not sure I would say it went in the wrong direction. The last run was ultra weenie and not likely to transpire. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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