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Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Snow January 24-26


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It's too bad that the airmass with this system isn't colder.  Southern Lake Michigan water temps are running around mid 30s near the shore to about 40 farther out in the lake, which seems to me like it's probably warmer than average.  It looks cold enough to get some lake enhanced precip going, especially later on in the storm, but this is not likely to be a big contributor to totals along the western shore.  

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00z GFS - not what you want to see in northern IL and points west. Short wave gets buried too far south in the desert southwest. It's also a hair less robust so it stays positively tilted for longer and results in a farther south low path that isn't able to track more sharply northeast. Still ends up good for farther south and east in the subforum, because other favorable aspects remain in play.

The GFS isn't exactly a paragon of consistency, but it can be used to demonstrate what we don't want to see happen to get a good event up to Chicagoland.

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2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

00z GFS - not what you want to see in northern IL and points west. Short wave gets buried too far south in the desert southwest. It's also a hair less robust so it stays positively tilted for longer and results in a farther south low path that isn't able to track more sharply northeast. Still ends up good for farther south and east in the subforum, because other favorable aspects remain in play.

The GFS isn't exactly a paragon of consistency, but it can be used to demonstrate what we don't want to see happen to get a good event up to Chicagoland.

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Hopefully not a "trend" and maybe just a bad run. But definitely not out of the realm of possibilities. Probably going to see a lot of flip flopping until the system gets sampled which I'm guessing won't be till end of weekend or early next week. 

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As you stated too many pieces all have to fall in place just right. At least the miss SE is showing up early.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Yep, this idea was already firmly in the realm of possibility per the ensemble members. It's a pretty fine line - was hoping to convey that to AFD readers today, in simplest terms, the surface low track with respect to the Ohio River will loom large in determining the haves and have nots.

Unsurprisingly, the GEFS ticked slightly south vs. 18z, but honestly not bad at this range, with still a solid # of members with a good hit up into the metro. I don't feel any worse locally because of this run, other than that we remain in a precarious spot, and north metro even more so vs. my location on DuPage/Will border.

The Canucks need to get their act together with the GEM running late, so us junkies have another data point for the 00z cycle lol.



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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Yep, this idea was already firmly in the realm of possibility per the ensemble members. It's a pretty fine line - was hoping to convey that to AFD readers today, in simplest terms, the surface low track with respect to the Ohio River will loom large in determining the haves and have nots.

Unsurprisingly, the GEFS ticked slightly south vs. 18z, but honestly not bad at this range, with still a solid # of members with a good hit up into the metro. I don't feel any worse locally because of this run, other than that we remain in a precarious spot, and north metro even more so vs. my location on DuPage/Will border.

The Canucks need to get their act together with the GEM running late, so us junkies have another data point for the 00z cycle lol.


 

And the Europeans even more so making us staying up so late to see 0z runs at almost midnight. Lol

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Hopefully not a "trend" and maybe just a bad run. But definitely not out of the realm of possibilities. Probably going to see a lot of flip flopping until the system gets sampled which I'm guessing won't be till end of weekend or early next week. 
The GFS was a fast outlier with our main wave going back to the model runs 24-36 hours ago - it's now closer to the consensus, with main issue being how far south it digs the wave. Something to watch vs. getting overly concerned at this point. With the latest GEFS showing the spectrum of plausible outcomes better than it seems to do usually, the Euro suite should be a little more helpful given the sheer number of members, plus the better overall performing op model.

RAOB sampling wise, should get partial sampling 00z Sunday and close to full 12z Sunday. The satellite derived stuff is so much better now, plus any over Pacific aircraft data can help, so this might be a more stable forecast (big picture) than some of our events.


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6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The GFS was a fast outlier with our main wave going back to the model runs 24-36 hours ago - it's now closer to the consensus, with main issue being how far south it digs the wave. Something to watch vs. getting overly concerned at this point. With the latest GEFS showing the spectrum of plausible outcomes better than it seems to do usually, the Euro suite should be a little more helpful given the sheer number of members, plus the better overall performing op model.

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Totally agree. I always put more faith in euro and its ensemble guidance over gfs. Though with the Christmas storm every model was a trainwreck. Lol. Curious to see if euro holds where it is or if it goes se like 0z gfs.

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

0z euro not very pretty. Overall model guidance tonight not trending in right direction for a good storm or good hit for northern parts of subforum. 

Think about it, you can only trend north for so long before you run out of room. This slight step back just ensures we have space for the perfect positive trend finish. The pre Christmas storm was literally too far north before it collapsed to shit. Don't worry- yet.

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5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Think about it, you can only trend north for so long before you run out of room. This slight step back just ensures we have space for the perfect positive trend finish. The pre Christmas storm was literally too far north before it collapsed to shit. Don't worry- yet.

That one was ridiculously north days out. At least this one looks realistic. Would be nice to see that 500mb low dig less than it is. Looking at models looks like we could have a sampling by late tomorrow and for sure by early Sun. So hopefully that will help models hone in on track. I'm definitely sucked into this storm already but never got my hopes up fully expecting a downward trend like the Xmas Storm. But maybe this one can surprise us. Not holding my breath though. 

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0z euro not very pretty. Overall model guidance tonight not trending in right direction for a good storm or good hit for northern parts of subforum. 
That run was hurt by the h5 low digging a bit farther southwest, but even more so, comparing to 12z, positive tilt of the parent wave valid Tuesday night-early Wednesday vs neutral to negative tilt on the 12z run.

The farther south h5 low path hopefully ticks back some on the next model cycles, though might very well be a meaningful data point, while the other element is much more uncertain. Any farther south with the parent wave definitely will make it tougher to get a far enough north surface low track because then you'd need to be more reliant on wave going full negative tilt.

The 00z operational runs showed the caution flags in this setup - I think we'll have a decent idea by Sunday on which way things are leaning.


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6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

That run was hurt by the h5 low digging a bit farther southwest, but even more so, comparing to 12z, positive tilt of the parent wave valid Tuesday night-early Wednesday vs neutral to negative tilt on the 12z run.

The farther south h5 low path hopefully ticks back some on the next model cycles, though might very well be a meaningful data point, while the other element is much more uncertain. Any farther south with the parent wave definitely will make it tougher to get a far enough north surface low track because then you'd need to be more reliant on wave going full negative tilt.

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Do you think sampling of the upper wave will give any meaningful changes? Seems like anymore it's a crapshoot depending on how many RAOB sites it passes over. Definitely would be more beneficial to get a neutral to negative tilt sooner and an h5 wave to dig less south. Esp since now this storm is being driven solely by the southern stream wave with no phasing with the northern stream wave. 

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models have this upper low dipping across the Mexico border.  That's simply too far south for Iowa.  We need this to move east across NM and into the TX panhandle.

The 1/25/78 blizzard low dipped into northern Mexico, then to Louisiana, to Nashville, to Columbus. Just saying. I still have old surface maps that I drew at the time..

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Lock in the 0z Canadian. Perfect track and it strengthens it as it moves NE, while the gfs weakens it. Concerns me that the euro keeps it fairly weak. I guess it all depends on the phasing interaction which hopefully will be figured out by the models by mon.

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11 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Northwest Ohio getting crushed Hr 114 just means that this is for sure heading for Detroit :lol:

Iol I've always felt bad for toledo/monroe/ nw Ohio cause the bands almost always used to end up further nw but nowadays I'm not so sure. It's hasn't happened in awhile.

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15 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Northwest Ohio getting crushed Hr 114 just means that this is for sure heading for Detroit :lol:

Hopefully with it's current trajectory, us in NW OH can only get in the way of DET.  The canopy of this storm, as currently projected, looks to be quite large as long as you're NW of the low track..

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