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Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Snow January 24-26


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18 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Curious if dtw will issue watches. The low looks to close off but not much precip in the deformation band once the low gets east of Detroit. Curious to see how this one evolves. Like many have stated, models struggle with phasing interactions. 

They are going with 2-6" as of now via forecast discussion. 

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40 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Curious if dtw will issue watches. The low looks to close off but not much precip in the deformation band once the low gets east of Detroit. Curious to see how this one evolves. Like many have stated, models struggle with phasing interactions. 

Can thank the lack of cold air for that

21 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

They are going with 2-6" as of now via forecast discussion. 

Saw that, lol'd. Downriver got 3" from today's "non-event"

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8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Punting this to Ohio??

that run didn't even look good for Ohio. All you can hope is a blip. But we have seen this happen time and again over the past few years so I get the skeptics. On the plus, this has not been modeled as a huge hit for Chicago since last Thursday so an inch or less from 3" isn't a nightmare. I'll always be an optimist. And the pendulum will eventually swing back. Always, does.

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The 18z EPS only showed a slight downtick from 12z in its 10:1 mean snowfall output and that op run is not significantly different from the previous few runs aside from the lower QPF. Surface low track is almost identical to the 06z run. Concern shouldn't be based off that one run.

Even though late January isn't sun angle season, our bigger issue is the lack of cold air going into the event plus temps near to even above freezing during the snow. This will limit accumulations unless the higher rates can get farther north. So we need to see support for better banding and higher QPF resulting from that farther north. Otherwise, the 1-3"/2-4" range from Gino's AFD is probably the ceiling in the metro (on colder surfaces).



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