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Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Snow January 24-26


Baum
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4 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Lock in the 0z Canadian. Perfect track and it strengthens it as it moves NE, while the gfs weakens it. Concerns me that the euro keeps it fairly weak. I guess it all depends on the phasing interaction which hopefully will be figured out by the models by mon.

Liking the GEM looks and apparently so is DTX. Overnight more bullish than I can remember this office being:

The quiet weather comes to an end Wednesday as the next
winter storm targets the region. Unlike many of the recent systems
that have curled north over the Midwest keeping us on the warm side
of the storm, models have held firm with a more southern track with
the surface and mid level lows tracking from Texas (Wed 00Z) up to
Ohio (Thurs 00Z) with southern MI solidly on the northwestern flank
of the system. Many ingredients are becoming favorable for an
accumulating snowfall over the area. The surface low will be
maturing near the area, favorable mid level deformation noses into
the southern Great Lakes, entrance region dynamics from an exiting
jet and exit region dynamics from rapidly approaching jet,
deformation region passing over the area, and a wealth of moisture
to name a few.
Just how much snow will fall remains in question as
we are still 5 days out and a shift south would keep us more in a
light snow scenario, and north could push heaviest snow to the
north. For now we`ll highlight the potential for accumulating
snowfall Wednesday morning through the overnight.

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8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Liking the GEM looks and apparently so is DTX. Overnight more bullish than I can remember this office being:

 

Interesting that they think this thing has the potential to go nw of here which is possible if earlier phasing occurs. 

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57 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Hopefully with it's current trajectory, us in NW OH can only get in the way of DET.  The canopy of this storm, as currently projected, looks to be quite large as long as you're NW of the low track..

This type of storm track is typically a solid 6-10” for the region absolutely. Still the model spread won’t be clear until Monday night 

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46 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Interesting that they think this thing has the potential to go nw of here which is possible if earlier phasing occurs. 

Personally I think a little bit more N stream interaction will be back in play and shift the swath a bit NW more in line with the 21/0z GEM's portrayal. Can we get a 989 mb curving up just to our east like it shows (ala PV Bliz) Idk. One can hope.

9 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

This type of storm track is typically a solid 6-10” for the region absolutely. Still the model spread won’t be clear until Monday night 

Yep. Solid GRR advisory level system in play for SEMI/NWOH

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3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

12z gem a little weaker with the wave but still solid run. Gfs considerably weaker, less impressive. 

Every legit snowstorm west of us this winter has shown the same weaker outlook and then trended upwards closer in to game time. Be surprised if this throws that trend out a window.

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5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Every legit snowstorm west of us this winter has shown the same weaker outlook and then trended upwards closer in to game time. Be surprised if this throws that trend out a window.

I dunno about that. While msp has had a good winter and this most recent storm delivered for NE, most of the systems this winter have been pretty weak and trended downward. This one, while a long ways to go, is trending in the weaker direction. 

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Consensus track starting to form with the operationals anyways. Not been a good trend for MBY on the past two runs. The naysayers maybe right again. At some point, we need to reverse the SE progressive slider curse. Still time. Heads to Michiana or Ohio I'll be headed that way mid week.

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25 minutes ago, Baum said:

Consensus track starting to form with the operationals anyways. Not been a good trend for MBY on the past two runs. The naysayers maybe right again. At some point, we need to reverse the SE progressive slider curse. Still time. Heads to Michiana or Ohio I'll be headed that way mid week.

DAB our my way. Northern cutoff will be brutal. 

 

At this point I pulling for futility, this winter has been hot garbage 

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8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

DAB our my way. Northern cutoff will be brutal. 

 

At this point I pulling for futility, this winter has been hot garbage 

Even if this one doesn't produce much in northern IL, you know that the big dog futility record won't be broken.  Pattern looks too active going forward and lighter events add up.

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11 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

DAB our my way. Northern cutoff will be brutal. 

 

At this point I pulling for futility, this winter has been hot garbage 

did you just copy and paste this post from each of the past 5 winters?

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Still have to wait on the Euro for our final 12z operational data point, but did want to note that the foreign models (12z GEM and UKMET and 00z Euro) have a more expansive precip shield with light to moderate snow accums farther north. The GFS has the sharp NW cutoff that's seemingly more common in these setups.

This is despite relatively similar surface low tracks and mid and upper level depictions. There's probably another physical reason beyond this, but simplest way to see the difference is that foreign models have much higher 850 mb RH farther north than the GFS.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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34 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Still have to wait on the Euro for our final 12z operational data point, but did want to note that the foreign models (12z GEM and UKMET and 00z Euro) have a more expansive precip shield with light to moderate snow accums farther north. The GFS has the sharp NW cutoff that's seemingly more common in these setups.

This is despite relatively similar surface low tracks and mid and upper level depictions. There's probably another physical reason beyond this, but simplest way to see the difference is that foreign models have much higher 850 mb RH farther north than the GFS.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

It does seem a little strange that the GFS doesn't bring some light precip farther north.  The mid level features don't seem prohibitively far south.  Also don't really have a robust surface high to dramatically reinforce/suppress the northwest end of the precip shield.

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16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Euro has more of a spread the wealth light to moderate snow event for many with a steady state low. Seems like the energy is really going into the costal transfer and ramping up a big nor'easter. But curious if we really will get the snow shield to expand that nw. 

I've seen way quicker coastal transfers than this.  It actually gets going pretty late... so late that it doesn't do anything for the big I-95 cities (inland track of the secondary doesn't help them either)

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Because the GFS is more of an outlier now, I'm currently leaning toward the foreign guidance to be more likely on the right track. The warning type event is less likely, but that may not mean a whiff (maybe ALEK was onto something haha).

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I've seen way quicker coastal transfers than this.  It actually gets going pretty late... so late that it doesn't do anything for the big I-95 cities (inland track of the secondary doesn't help them either)

Yeah I have as well. I was speaking more from the low strength perspective. Before it was sub 1000mb and even strengthening. However, now it seems to be more of a steady state low 1000's but in the scheme of things it doesn't really impact how it's going to evolve here in the Midwest/Ohio Valley. 

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1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

DAB our my way. Northern cutoff will be brutal. 

 

At this point I pulling for futility, this winter has been hot garbage 

 

35 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Seconded

Several recent ORD Februarys  are insulted by those posts

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not sure if any website has this capability, but can someone post a Euro snow map for the entire storm with this weekend's system subtracted?

The closest I could get is 24hr 10:1 or Kuchera on pivotalwx. However it cuts it close on some areas catching everything 

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