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January 2023


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Going to frame it
 
Screenshot_20230131_130820_Chrome.thumb.jpg.9c5f050c11aa6d21d2c086dfb3b6c678.jpg

Every single day of the month above normal, and most days way above normal. That’s another this has never happened before in 153 years of records. Hope we never see this again but I’m suspecting we will again in the not too distant future.

Today will make it 35 consecutive days above normal. What can you say, this makes the late 90’s look awesome in comparison.


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18 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:


Every single day of the month above normal, and most days way above normal. That’s another this has never happened before in 153 years of records. Hope we never see this again but I’m suspecting we will again in the not too distant future.

Today will make it 35 consecutive days above normal. What can you say, this makes the late 90’s look awesome in comparison.


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This is why 19-20 and that so-called "snowless" streak of 332 days is not even anywhere in the ballpark of what we have going on now.

That said, it's been snowing for several hours now (granted, it's light snow lol) and it would be ironic if we had an unbroken stretch of snow from this morning to tomorrow morning and it somehow still ended up being a T lol.

 

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26 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:


Every single day of the month above normal, and most days way above normal. That’s another this has never happened before in 153 years of records. Hope we never see this again but I’m suspecting we will again in the not too distant future.

Today will make it 35 consecutive days above normal. What can you say, this makes the late 90’s look awesome in comparison.


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Let's see when it happens again. March 2012, then December 2015 and now January 2022, we'll see how soon the next one happens, I'm betting on 5 years or less. It was only a matter of time before the fires of the Arctic spread southward.

 

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Week 1   Averaging 33(26/40) or-1.        Week 2   Averaging  41(34/48) or +6.         GFS correctly got Week 1 in January as about +15.

1675166400-yBsj2VndaZU.png

Chance of snow tonight through tomorrow PM:      Unfortunately,  this does not change again till the 12th.

1675274400-3GuuOIZuEnM.png

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6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

We will be making the move to Orange County in the next year.

Yes I know the commute to NYC is long but I am willing to do it.

Congrats.. the commute is not as bad as you think. It’s a much much better commute than those who come in from out East or jersey. I’ve been doing it for almost 20 yrs into Harlem/Heights. 

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The 1932 record will likely fall as it would require a minimum of around 18F at midnight to preserve a tie, possibly lower as I estimated the mean max would remain close to value through 30th of 48.7F. However, if we consider the relative urban heat island magnitudes in 1932 and 2023, the differential may prove to be slightly less, meaning that in a list that is "u.h.i. adjusted" 1932 could remain ahead of 2023. 

It won't be quite the same record shattering that was done on several occasions for December. This is a table of the top 12 Decembers including ranks for Toronto, and it can be seen that 1982 began a series of record breakers (from 1891) that for NYC included 1984, 2001 and 2015, which added an incredible margin of 3.7 C or 6.7 F deg to the existing record (2015 vs 2001) and 4.7 C (8.5 F) for 2015 compared to the 1891 record first broken by 1982. For Toronto the existing record was (NYC's 12th place December) 1923, and this was only tied in 1982 and 1998, then broken in 2001 and eventually 2015 (a margin of 2.0 C). At both locations the old record was eclipsed by nine or ten other years (some of which never held the record) after 1982. 

January has had a different evolution but perhaps in the future will begin to break the 1932 record more frequently in the style of December and also February which has many recent contenders also. The different performance of various months in this recent climate warming era is an odd detail as some months have moved ahead more frequently and with a larger margin than other months. 

 

DECEMBER RECENT WARM MONTHS at NYC and TORONTO compared by ranks

Rank _ Year __ Mean (C,F) ___ Tor rank, Tor mean 

01 _____ 2015 ___ 10.44 (50.8) ______ 01 ________ 5.2

02 ____ 2001 ____ 6.72 (44.1) _______ 02 ________ 3.2

03t ____1984 ____ 6.56 (43.8) _______ 10 _________ 1.7

03t ____2021 ____ 6.56 (43.8) _______ 04 _________2.5

05 _____2006 ____ 6.44 (43.6) _______ 03 ________ 2.9

06 ____ 2011 _____ 6.28 (43.3) _______ 09 ________ 2.0

07 _____1998 _____ 6.22 (43.2) ______ t05 ________ 2.3

08 _____1982 _____ 6.00 (42.8) ______ t05 ________ 2.3

09 _____1990 _____ 5.89 (42.6) ______ 33 _________ 0.7

10 _____ 1891 _____ 5.72 (42.3) ______ t27 ________ 0.8

11 ______1994 _____ 5.67 (42.2) ______ 11 __________1.6

12 ______1923 _____ 5.56 (42.0) ______ t05 ________ 2.3

(for the top 12 NYC Decembers, all but 08 and 12 for Toronto are present in the list. The values missing for Toronto are

08 _ 2012 which was 13th for NYC 

12 _ 1965 and 1881 tied, these ranked t20th and t28th for NYC

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24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's actually fun though when they happen all day long and you can actually see them and enjoying seeing them fall.

 

no doubt, i woke up to flurries here in white plains, i opened the blinds and let out a loud "HOLY SHIT ITS SNOWING"

my girlfriend, who was still asleep at this point, wasn't as amused as I was 

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Early tomorrow morning sounds better than this morning, everything is too warm and even if any snow had fallen here (which it didn't) nothing would have stuck.

Didn't even see rain here, looks like it was all drizzle.

 

Trace snow NYC so far today, so it did snow.  and whatever happened s LI central NJ this aftn.  

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1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

The 1932 record will likely fall as it would require a minimum of around 18F at midnight to preserve a tie, possibly lower as I estimated the mean max would remain close to value through 30th of 48.7F. However, if we consider the relative urban heat island magnitudes in 1932 and 2023, the differential may prove to be slightly less, meaning that in a list that is "u.h.i. adjusted" 1932 could remain ahead of 2023. 

It won't be quite the same record shattering that was done on several occasions for December. This is a table of the top 12 Decembers including ranks for Toronto, and it can be seen that 1982 began a series of record breakers (from 1891) that for NYC included 1984, 2001 and 2015, which added an incredible margin of 3.7 C or 6.7 F deg to the existing record (2015 vs 2001) and 4.7 C (8.5 F) for 2015 compared to the 1891 record first broken by 1982. For Toronto the existing record was (NYC's 12th place December) 1923, and this was only tied in 1982 and 1998, then broken in 2001 and eventually 2015 (a margin of 2.0 C). At both locations the old record was eclipsed by nine or ten other years (some of which never held the record) after 1982. 

January has had a different evolution but perhaps in the future will begin to break the 1932 record more frequently in the style of December and also February which has many recent contenders also. The different performance of various months in this recent climate warming era is an odd detail as some months have moved ahead more frequently and with a larger margin than other months. 

 

DECEMBER RECENT WARM MONTHS at NYC and TORONTO compared by ranks

Rank _ Year __ Mean (C,F) ___ Tor rank, Tor mean 

01 _____ 2015 ___ 10.44 (50.8) ______ 01 ________ 5.2

02 ____ 2001 ____ 6.72 (44.1) _______ 02 ________ 3.2

03t ____1984 ____ 6.56 (43.8) _______ 10 _________ 1.7

03t ____2021 ____ 6.56 (43.8) _______ 04 _________2.5

05 _____2006 ____ 6.44 (43.6) _______ 03 ________ 2.9

06 ____ 2011 _____ 6.28 (43.3) _______ 09 ________ 2.0

07 _____1998 _____ 6.22 (43.2) ______ t05 ________ 2.3

08 _____1982 _____ 6.00 (42.8) ______ t05 ________ 2.3

09 _____1990 _____ 5.89 (42.6) ______ 33 _________ 0.7

10 _____ 1891 _____ 5.72 (42.3) ______ t27 ________ 0.8

11 ______1994 _____ 5.67 (42.2) ______ 11 __________1.6

12 ______1923 _____ 5.56 (42.0) ______ t05 ________ 2.3

(for the top 12 NYC Decembers, all but 08 and 12 for Toronto are present in the list. The values missing for Toronto are

08 _ 2012 which was 13th for NYC 

12 _ 1965 and 1881 tied, these ranked t20th and t28th for NYC

Looks like the record for fewest 32 degree or lower mins for January will also fall.

The split today was 49/34 and the temperature isn't projected to reach 32 until 2 AM tomorrow so it looks like 3 days of 32 or lower mins is going to be the new record, along with the warmest January on record.

Projected avg mean is 43.5

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Bridgeport, Islip, New York City (Central Park, JFK Airport, and LaGuardia Airport), and Newark are concluding their warmest January on record. Nevertheless, colder air began pressing into the region before sunsrise today, accompanied by rain, sleet, and snow showers.

Parts of the region picked up a few tenths of an inch of snow, but not Central Park. As a result, Central Park's measurable snow drought has now reached 328 days, which ranks as the second longest such stretch on record.

Overnight into tomorrow morning, a weak disturbance passing to the south of the region could bring a period of light snow to parts of the area, especially south and east of New York City. There is a possibility that New York City could pick up a few tenths of an inch of snow bringing an end to the measurable snow drought. That outcome is not assured. In the wake of the system, a near seasonably cold day will follow.

A cooler than normal first week of February in what will likely be a warmer than normal month overall now lies ahead. The developing cool period will be highlighted by a brief Arctic blast. Saturday could be the coldest day with the temperature rising only into the upper teens and lower 20s during the daytime after a morning low in the single digits in New York City and possibly below zero outside the City.

Afterward, moderation will rapidly commence. The potential exists for temperatures to run above to much above normal through mid-month. Both the CFSv2 and EPS weeklies show much above normal temperatures for the second week of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +6.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.476 today.

On January 29 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.458 (RMM). The January 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.312 (RMM).

 

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32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like the record for fewest 32 degree or lower mins for January will also fall.

The split today was 49/34 and the temperature isn't projected to reach 32 until 2 AM tomorrow so it looks like 3 days of 32 or lower mins is going to be the new record, along with the warmest January on record.

Projected avg mean is 43.5

Now they're saying the high was 50 at NYC, so it's the 4th straight day to hit 50 and that closes out the month.

 

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