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January 2023


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18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Bridgeport, Islip, New York City (Central Park, JFK Airport, and LaGuardia Airport), and Newark are concluding their warmest January on record. Nevertheless, colder air began pressing into the region before sunsrise today, accompanied by rain, sleet, and snow showers.

Parts of the region picked up a few tenths of an inch of snow, but not Central Park. As a result, Central Park's measurable snow drought has now reached 328 days, which ranks as the second longest such stretch on record.

Overnight into tomorrow morning, a weak disturbance passing to the south of the region could bring a period of light snow to parts of the area, especially south and east of New York City. There is a possibility that New York City could pick up a few tenths of an inch of snow bringing an end to the measurable snow drought. That outcome is not assured. In the wake of the system, a near seasonably cold day will follow.

A cooler than normal first week of February in what will likely be a warmer than normal month overall now lies ahead. The developing cool period will be highlighted by a brief Arctic blast. Saturday could be the coldest day with the temperature rising only into the upper teens and lower 20s during the daytime after a morning low in the single digits in New York City and possibly below zero outside the City.

Afterward, moderation will rapidly commence. The potential exists for temperatures to run above to much above normal through mid-month. Both the CFSv2 and EPS weeklies show much above normal temperatures for the second week of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +6.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.476 today.

On January 29 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.458 (RMM). The January 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.312 (RMM).

 

Don can you confirm the high was 50 today?  And the low will likely be either 33 or 34 and probably won't hit 32 until 2 am?

Also which of our official spots still have their snowless streaks going? Just NYC and JFK?

Thanks!

 

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's pretty much just as easy as coming in from Nassau County or western Suffolk on the LIRR isn't it?

 

Much easier than anything on the island. Driving is completely different on the island. Not to mention LIRR is a much harder commute than Harlem line in Metro North. Plus when I get off the train at the end of the day I can see a ski area! Just a different vibe here. It is like being in Vermont but still NY. 

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don can you confirm the high was 50 today?  And the low will likely be either 33 or 34 and probably won't hit 32 until 2 am?

Also which of our official spots still have their snowless streaks going? Just NYC and JFK?

Thanks!

 

NYC and LGA both reached 50. So far, JFK and NYC have no measurable snow. That might change tonight.

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7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Much easier than anything on the island. Driving is completely different on the island. Not to mention LIRR is a much harder commute than Harlem line in Metro North. Plus when I get off the train at the end of the day I can see a ski area! Just a different vibe here. It is like being in Vermont but still NY. 

Oh I like it.

and driving on Long Island is ----HORRENDOUS----

I might consider that as a second home too, as it's probably easier than going from the Poconos to Long Island

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Oh I like it.

and driving on Long Island is ----HORRENDOUS----

I might consider that as a second home too, as it's probably easier than going from the Poconos to Long Island

Don’t you have a Poconos place? But yes this is a far easier drive plus you aren’t far from the Catskills and you could also still daytrip to Vermont or the Daks. 

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8 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Don’t you have a Poconos place? But yes this is a far easier drive plus you aren’t far from the Catskills and you could also still daytrip to Vermont or the Daks. 

I do but the drive back and forth to Long Island is horrendous.  I want a better location in NY where the drive is easier (doesn't take 3 hours).

The most frustrating part is it takes just 2 hours to get to the city and another whole hour to get to western Long Island.

 

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28 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Much easier than anything on the island. Driving is completely different on the island. Not to mention LIRR is a much harder commute than Harlem line in Metro North. Plus when I get off the train at the end of the day I can see a ski area! Just a different vibe here. It is like being in Vermont but still NY. 

What ski area? 

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14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I do but the drive back and forth to Long Island is horrendous.  I want a better location in NY where the drive is easier (doesn't take 3 hours).

The most frustrating part is it takes just 2 hours to get to the city and another whole hour to get to western Long Island.

 

Oh I hear you. Especially on a Friday afternoon heading west out of the city. Great thing about here is if the highways are packed just jump on a state route like 22. 

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37 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Much easier than anything on the island. Driving is completely different on the island. Not to mention LIRR is a much harder commute than Harlem line in Metro North. Plus when I get off the train at the end of the day I can see a ski area! Just a different vibe here. It is like being in Vermont but still NY. 

Well, maybe not quite VT but it's definitely very continental feeling as you come up the hill northbound on 22 and pass the Watchtower. I'm almost mobile again, getting a motor in my van this week, so I'll give you a tour of the local woods soon and show you what's what. 

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I do but the drive back and forth to Long Island is horrendous.  I want a better location in NY where the drive is easier (doesn't take 3 hours).

The most frustrating part is it takes just 2 hours to get to the city and another whole hour to get to western Long Island.

 

Unless the Hutch totally shuts down I usually make it from my dads place in Oceanside to where Justin is in 90-120 minutes without driving like a moron. Like he said, access to more hill country areas is really easy from there and it just keeps getting prettier and easier traveling as you go north and northeast. 

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Oh I hear you. Especially on a Friday afternoon heading west out of the city. Great thing about here is if the highways are packed just jump on a state route like 22. 

There's literally just one way to get anywhere on the south shore from the city and the Van Wyck is packed even on less busy days.

The only time the drive was a breeze was during the early part of the pandemic.

 

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Well, maybe not quite VT but it's definitely very continental feeling as you come up the hill northbound on 22 and pass the Watchtower. I'm almost mobile again, getting a motor in my van this week, so I'll give you a tour of the local woods soon and show you what's what. 

Unless the Hutch totally shuts down I usually make it from my dads place in Oceanside to where Justin is in 90-120 minutes without driving like a moron. Like he said, access to more hill country areas is really easy from there and it just keeps getting prettier and easier traveling as you go north and northeast. 

That's really good, 120 minutes is about my limit for how long of a drive I want to take on a weekly basis.

 

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45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Progression of New York City's record streaks of above normal days:

image.png.49a89194d76a838673316ae9055f2115.png

That's absolutely wild Don!

And nothing between summer 1876 and winter 2007?  Wow!

I also noticed that summer 1876 was the only one in that list that happened in the summer-- what kind of a summer did we have that year-- did we set any 90+ or even 100+ degree records for that era?

 

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30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That's absolutely wild Don!

And nothing between summer 1876 and winter 2007?  Wow!

I also noticed that summer 1876 was the only one in that list that happened in the summer-- what kind of a summer did we have that year-- did we set any 90+ or even 100+ degree records for that era?

 

With a mean temperature of 76.1, it was the hottest summer until 1906. Its 11 90-degree days in July stood as the monthly record until it was broken in July 1940 (12 days). That record was tied in July 1934 and August 1939. Its highest temperature was 98. 

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January 2023 ranks among New York City's most extreme months in terms of warm temperature records on a standardized basis. Although the 2000s account for 15% of the months in NYC's climate record, they account for 53% of months with 2 sigma or greater warm anomalies.
image.jpeg.481b02717ecae2af3f59cb667d5f283f.jpeg

Depressing, but numbers don’t lie.


.
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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The only Asia song I know is the one that keeps playing over and over again in that Supernatural episode where they're stuck in a time loop and keep dying over and over again.  Really good song!

Well it was their only big hit....they were a "supergroup" made up of former bands that most American kids weren't even that familiar with by 1981....the 80's were truly a decade of terrible music.

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24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yep

I was at a large university hospital today getting a check up and when the flurries stopped people were like thank GOD. It just amazes me how much people hate winter and snow around here. It's like the only reason they are here is for their jobs. Once retired they head south.

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22 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Something about this chart confuses me, what are the averages relative to? January 1869 had no averages with official recordkeeping beginning. 

They are relative to the base periods used by NOAA. I believe 1869 was relative to the 1871-00 period. The anomalies are from the NOAA’s data.

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I think another unusual feature of Jan 2023 is how inactive the atmosphere was for a winter month. This is illustrated by the fact that Toronto managed to produce a top five month with a maximum monthly temperature of only 6 C which is near the bottom of the list of January extremes, only the really cold months have a lower value and more than two-thirds (including a lot of below normal Januaries) have a higher monthly extreme. It was almost an atmospheric dead zone over the region in general. It was similar here, day after day of almost no weather. I wonder if besides global warming we are seeing a phenomenon of global blanding; much is made of the potential for extreme weather and high variability in this era, but a lot of the time the weather seems to do almost nothing for days on end. It is becoming the main adversary of weather forums in many different regions, having so little significant weather. 

It actually makes the weather of the 1980s look exciting by comparison, and the 1970s hyper-active. I'd be interested if this is anyone else's take, and I realize a case can be made for the extreme weather paradigm, it's just not overly frequent. 

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

January 2023 ranks among New York City's most extreme months in terms of warm temperature records on a standardized basis. Although the 2000s account for 15% of the months in NYC's climate record, they account for 53% of months with 2 sigma or greater warm anomalies.
image.jpeg.481b02717ecae2af3f59cb667d5f283f.jpeg

Wow right up there with March 2012!

I didn't realize September 2015 was so warm!  Did it have a lot of 90 degree days just like September 1983 did?

How come September 1983 isn't on this list-- that was one amazing month for heat!

Nice to see August 1980 on this list and two months from 2010!  Those were some of my favorite summers!

July 1999 was the hottest summer month we've ever had, closely followed by July 2010

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With a mean temperature of 76.1, it was the hottest summer until 1906. Its 11 90-degree days in July stood as the monthly record until it was broken in July 1940 (12 days). That record was tied in July 1934 and August 1939. Its highest temperature was 98. 

Thanks Don, it sounds amazing and yet it didn't make the 2 sigma mark!  I see only two months from the 1880s did.

 

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1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

I was at a large university hospital today getting a check up and when the flurries stopped people were like thank GOD. It just amazes me how much people hate winter and snow around here. It's like the only reason they are here is for their jobs. Once retired they head south.

I think it's partly or mostly instinct.  Think about where humanity evolved.  

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