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January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco


nj2va
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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is a problem and happens long before any change back to a favorable pattern. I'm pro snow and pro cold but this firehose is going to take til Jan 8 or longer to recover from imho. Like psu said tho, maybe we can mute this look some as it nears.

gfs-ens_uv250_npac_37.png

How many years now have we seen this firehose off the Pacific????  This is one of the largest contributing factors why cold in the lower 48 is scoured out time and time again.  The end result is a very fast progressive flat flow for the most part across the United States that then promotes ridging off the Atlantic Seaboard or from the Gulf of Mexico.  We keep dumping warmth into the largest ocean of the world and the end results are warming winters that feature less snow for some areas especially namely ours. 

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Dude has a very narrowly focused perspective of how the atmosphere works, plus an agenda.

He's expansivly focused on proving he's right about anything after the SCI was quickly proven to be a dried up nothingburger. He lost me back in 2015 after claiming victory for SCI predicting the cold in the US when the very important teleconnection that the SCI predicts was polar opposite. Lol. Ego much? Think we dum much? Lol

And saying Siberia is north America's primary cold factory. Lol. What a fruitcake he's becoming 

 

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34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

He's expansivly focused on proving he's right about anything after the SCI was quickly proven to be a dried up nothingburger. He lost me back in 2015 after claiming victory for SCI predicting the cold in the US when the very important teleconnection that the SCI predicts was polar opposite. Lol. Ego much? Think we dum much? Lol

And saying Siberia is north America's primary cold factory. Lol. What a fruitcake he's becoming 

 

On top of all that…if we did get cross polar flow +5-10 air in Siberia would still be cold here.  But that’s not how we typically get snow here anyways. 

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22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dude.  Just tell me when it's going to snow and how much.  K thx bai

Well...to make it simple, guaranteed it won't snow here in May, June, July, August, or September.  Almost certainly not in October or April.  Not the most likely in November or March.  December, January, and February, kinda up in the air but even those months are iffy!  I think I covered every month there.  So not good odds any way you look at it! :lol:

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Sorry guys, I really do appreciate the time y’all spend on looking for good patterns and all that but it’s just getting to where the only thing really worth talking is when storms show up inside 7 days and stay there. Just my dumb thoughts as I keep looking and reading 

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5 minutes ago, H2O said:

Sorry guys, I really do appreciate the time y’all spend on looking for good patterns and all that but it’s just getting to where the only thing really worth talking is when storms show up inside 7 days and stay there. Just my dumb thoughts as I keep looking and reading 

I'm beginning to view patterns like dice. If ya find a decent pattern, that's one dice roll. A great pattern maybe that's two or even three dice rolls. So I'm starting to look for the pattern just to see if we can roll the frickin' dice first!

But then ya have the discreet threats...where ya gotta ignore everything until Day 5 (I ain't even trying to play Day 7 no more, lol) That's the roll of the dice...no guarantees, but at least you can have a chance :lol:

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6 minutes ago, H2O said:

Sorry guys, I really do appreciate the time y’all spend on looking for good patterns and all that but it’s just getting to where the only thing really worth talking is when storms show up inside 7 days and stay there. Just my dumb thoughts as I keep looking and reading 

Good plan, but wtf is a self respecting snow starved weenie supposed to do when there's nothing inside 7 days? 

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7 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

I wonder if I’ll actually get to see -4° next Saturday in the mountains…

Widespread -20's out in western Canada where our source air is coming from. Its gonna be cold as crap on Saturday. 

The NAM and GFS have backed off on the snow chances with the first wave out this way. Maybe a little sleet/ZR before the torrential rain comes. Still have a little hope for a flizzard with the frontal passage. 

Almost 50 in Montreal and zero in western MD. Dont see that every day. 

gfs_T2m_neus_17.png

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