frostfern Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Welp. Hope this is an overshoot and not a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Euro looking a little more negatively tilted by Hour 84 as the energy ejects into the Plains, which should favor a more westward solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, LansingWeather said: I was thinking with the GFS moving west, the EURO will move east to Cleveland lol I will lol. Models will probably continue to us until inside 12 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 0z Euro (10:1 ratios) thru Fri. afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, frostfern said: I will lol. Models will probably continue to us until inside 12 hours. For sure, but I know this area. I am almost always let down by a storm. Usually bombs out and goes over IL/WI or completely dies off and is a nothing-burger. Thats a big reason I moved out of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Surface low still ends up over SBN on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Euro is almost on top of the 12z run. You could argue it’s a touch further west earlier on. Most notable difference is slightly warmer near the SLP, less QPF near the SLP, and an expansion of WPF northwest. You want to see an end to westward shifts on the GFS with tomorrow’s suite and the Euro to hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The Euro ends up weaker (for western areas), less snow across the board compared to the 12z run. The GFS was a bit of a fluke as the rest of the model sweet is more east and either less amped or delayed amp. For Iowa, the Euro is much tamer than the GFS's historic blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 https://media.tenor.com/XeoO92P0kQQAAAAd/ice-cream.gif Someone post this. F’n file size limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Euro still occluding the low mostly over MI versus much further nw over IN/IL like GFS. Euro has been very consistent with this so probably trust it more as much as I would love goofus to be right with blizzard of the century. Ha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Good luck guys!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Kuchera map *and* 10:1 map for Chicagoland, fwiw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Matures too late on the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Because the Euro hasn't changed much from the overall evolution, definitely deserves the most weight in forecast thinking. That's not to say that meaningful changes can't happen, but that the GFS is more grain of salt worthy tonight. Now that the models have honed in on the big picture, not all that surprising the GFS is now the most amped and aggressive with QPF and snow, considering how it handled the February 2022 systems. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Euro a pretty big killjoy for the dvn cwa after the GFS/ICON runs earlier. Gut tells me this will be a powdery 3-5" event here with high winds and extreme cold, whilst Hoosier/Chicagoland cash in yet again ala GHD3. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Euro solution is definitely more of a downer. Still a good event with high winds and some decent snow here but really miss out on all the wraparound snow as the low occludes too ne of me so totals are significantly less than gfs obviously. I knew gfs solution was likely not to occur but definitely was hoping to see euro bump towards that a bit at least with the low occluding more nw to cash in on deformation band more. Still time for small details to work out. I bet nam will have a real humdinger of a storm. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 After 21+ in November I know damn well another 18+ snowstorm is not happening this winter. Still it looks to be a wild storm either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 You can tell a storm has you peak interested when you're staying up for even the 06Z runs lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 55 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Euro a pretty big killjoy for the dvn cwa after the GFS/ICON runs earlier. Gut tells me this will be a powdery 3-5" event here with high winds and extreme cold, whilst Hoosier/Chicagoland cash in yet again ala GHD3. It’s bonkers that we are “disappointed” with advisory-to-low end warning snows shown on a model a couple days before Christmas. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Once the GFS jumped strongly to the general idea of the Euro today, it consistently depicted 2-2.5"+ QPF totals in the max swath. Absent lake enhancement, QPF totals like that are very rare in a winter system in the Midwest. As alluded to in my previous post, we saw the GFS do this with both February systems last winter. The 12z ECMWF certainly had a broader swath of high QPF totals than the 00z run tonight, but still those high totals on this side of the lake were in the 1-1.75, locally 2" range. When you have the GFS spitting out obscene QPF and add in the way overdone Kuchera ratios, it creates unrealistic expectations. The 12z ECMWF was probably a realistic best case scenario. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: It’s bonkers that we are “disappointed” with advisory-to-low end warning snows shown on a model a couple days before Christmas. Live and die by the GFS. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 29 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Once the GFS jumped strongly to the general idea of the Euro today, it consistently depicted 2-2.5"+ QPF totals in the max swath. Absent lake enhancement, QPF totals like that are very rare in a winter system in the Midwest. As alluded to in my previous post, we saw the GFS do this with both February systems last winter. The 12z ECMWF certainly had a broader swath of high QPF totals than the 00z run tonight, but still those high totals on this side of the lake were in the 1-1.75, locally 2" range. When you have the GFS spitting out obscene QPF and add in the way overdone Kuchera ratios, it creates unrealistic expectations. The 12z ECMWF was probably a realistic best case scenario. Thank you. Some people have forgotten climo clearly. These systems also tend to get drier as we know as we approach go time. There are exceptions of course, but high likelihood we shave QPF from here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 06Z GFS is even further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Cant win em all, at least those euro runs were fun to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 looks like a good ole fashioned midwest snowstorm just before Christmas. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The GFS has been all over the place for the last 24 hours of runs fwiw, we'll just have to see if it starts going back east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 DSM hoisting early watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 GEFS west as well…a GFS coup would be funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The euro and gfs were consistent with Ian and were both wrong inside of 24 hours, gfs did very well with Nicole....dont give up because these models aren't giving you what you want...the amount of gfs runs that get tossed with even well developed tropical systems would make your head spin...euro is far more consistent thus less runs tossed but of course consistency can also be consistently wrong through the life of a system....Madison to Detroit are in play for the jackpot, lets see if the gfs settles down today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: The euro and gfs were consistent with Ian and were both wrong inside of 24 hours, gfs did very well with Nicole....dont give up because these models aren't giving you what you want...the amount of gfs runs that get tossed with even well developed tropical systems would make your head spin...euro is far more consistent thus less runs tossed but of course consistency can also be consistently wrong through the life of a system....Madison to Detroit are in play for the jackpot, lets see if the gfs settles down today It might not settle down until WednesdayIt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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