Winter Banter Thread

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And little cabin's roof might collapse when it has 4" of rain soak into it.  

We had that a week or so after the January 1996 blizzard..... roofs of homes and a supermarket collapsed when we had that big rain storm!

[Blizzwalker]

At Sams Point near Ellenville last Monday.  Snow was found.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Blizzwalker said:

At Sams Point near Ellenville last Monday.  Snow was found.

wow I love those deep blue skies!

How high up is that?

 

[Blizzwalker]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I love those deep blue skies!

How high up is that?

 

About 2300 ft. I did saturate the blue a bit.

[LibertyBell]

I can't believe I have to say this, but an "atmospheric river" isn't a real river (the geological definition of a river requires that it MUST be liquid!) but it's an easier way to visualize it.  

[wilsonvoid1]

i am sick of this winter! i'm literally done tracking for this storm too, it just doesn't want to produce i'm done. Good luck to eastern Long Island and New England this storm looks to underperform for most in my opinion but I hope i'm wrong but i'm done


.

[Winterweatherlover]

The 18z gfs shut down the whole forum, never seen one run do that. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said:

The 18z gfs shut down the whole forum, never seen one run do that. 

Maybe in a way it's a good thing lol?

[Winterweatherlover]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe in a way it's a good thing lol?

The 18z euro just woke it back up lol amazing what these models do to us. 

[GaWx]

On 2/28/2023 at 10:16 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Periodic update on the extreme forecast for NYC for 3/1-4/15: 5° below normal; 20" snow.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58486-winter-banter-thread/?do=findComment&comment=6823796

Based on the latest guidance, the first 10 days of March will average around 1° below normal. For the overall 3/1-5/15 period to average 5° below normal, the remainder of the period would need to average 6.1° below normal. The 1991-2020 normal temperature for 3/11-4/15 is 46.9°. That means the period would need to have a mean temperature of 40.8° or below for the extreme forecast to verify.  The last time that happened was in 1956.

Future updates will be based on actual data.

Don,

 With NYC at +2 for 3/1-11, it will be an even bigger challenge for JB to get his -5 for 3/1-4/15. The latest forecasts seem to suggest that NYC may cool off enough to allow 3/1-20 to almost get back down to right at the 1991-2020 normal. But even if so, that would still require -9 for 3/21-4/15. The 3/21-4/15 cold in both 1956 and 1940 would get him close (to a -4).

 The last time it almost got to -9 for 3/21-4/15 was right at the turn of the century, the 20th century! That 1900 cold would be just cold enough for him to get his -5 with rounding. The last one to get him -5 without rounding was 1888.

 So, his chances continue to drop.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Don,

 With NYC at +2 for 3/1-11, it will be an even bigger challenge for JB to get his -5 for 3/1-4/15. The latest forecasts seem to suggest that NYC may cool off enough to allow 3/1-20 to almost get back down to right at the 1991-2020 normal. But even if so, that would still require -9 for 3/21-4/15. The 3/21-4/15 cold in both 1956 and 1940 would get him close (to a -4).

 The last time it almost got to -9 for 3/21-4/15 was right at the turn of the century, the 20th century! That 1900 cold would be just cold enough for him to get his -5 with rounding. The last one to get him -5 without rounding was 1888.

 So, his chances continue to drop.

at this rate March may even not finish below normal.

[Nibor]

this has to be one of the worst storm threads I’ve had the misfortune of reading in a long time. 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

this has to be one of the worst storm threads I’ve had the misfortune of reading in a long time. 

Good morning Nibor. I enjoyed the Winter Weather Briefing and the Sams Point photo. Stay well, as always ….

[North and West]

this has to be one of the worst storm threads I’ve had the misfortune of reading in a long time. 

.

[donsutherland1]

Periodic extreme forecast update...

The extreme forecast in question called for March 1-April 15 to have an average temperature of 5° below normal with 20" or more snow in New York City. The forecast always had very little chance of ever verifying.

At present, the temperature would need to average 7.5° below normal from March 14-April 15 (40.0° against the 1991-2020 normals). The last time a year had an average temperature of 40.0° or below from March 14-April 15 was in 1956. 13/16 cases with such temperatures occurred prior to 1900.

Through today, it is likely that NYC's snowfall since March 1st will remain stuck at 0.1". That means an additional 19.9" would be needed through April 15th to verify the forecast. Only a single year in NYC's climate record, which extends back to 1869, had 19.9" or more snow from March 14-April 15: 1956 with 23.7".

In sum, the initially steep hill required for the extreme forecast to verify is growing each day into an ever higher mountain.

 

[STORMANLI]

" No Snow For You, Come Back Next Winter...Maybe"

With apologies to Seinfeld's Soup Nazi

[matt8204]

Safe to declare winter over?  My forecast shows 55 by Thursday, then high's consistently in the upper 40's to low 50's through early April.  I don't see how we get any snowfall of significance from here on in unless we get something real heavy overnight...but even if that happens, it will probably be gone within a few hours of daybreak anyhow.

[BxEngine]

How can it be a 2001 style bust while also saying “this was never going to happen”? For fucks sake stop posting every thought guys, they dont make any more sense in the written word than they do in our brains lol

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Periodic extreme forecast update...

The extreme forecast in question called for March 1-April 15 to have an average temperature of 5° below normal with 20" or more snow in New York City. The forecast always had very little chance of ever verifying.

At present, the temperature would need to average 7.5° below normal from March 14-April 15 (40.0° against the 1991-2020 normals). The last time a year had an average temperature of 40.0° or below from March 14-April 15 was in 1956. 13/16 cases with such temperatures occurred prior to 1900.

Through today, it is likely that NYC's snowfall since March 1st will remain stuck at 0.1". That means an additional 19.9" would be needed through April 15th to verify the forecast. Only a single year in NYC's climate record, which extends back to 1869, had 19.9" or more snow from March 14-April 15: 1956 with 23.7".

In sum, the initially steep hill required for the extreme forecast to verify is growing each day into an ever higher mountain.

 

So you're tellin' me there's a chance!

[North and West]

I like that everyone got to experience/re-live an early 1990s winter this year with fleeting cold and near misses. Now imagine that pre-internet and only the TV Mets to guide you outside of pre-Ice Road Trucker TWC.




.

[NorthShoreWx]

The nor'easter thread is making my brain hurt.  Lots of stuff that should never be shared outside of therapy.

[Juliancolton]

Winter 22-23, in a picture:

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

I like that everyone got to experience/re-live an early 1990s winter this year with fleeting cold and near misses. Now imagine that pre-internet and only the TV Mets to guide you outside of pre-Ice Road Trucker TWC.




.

Would probably make us more sane not less with all these links to crap models and hallucinations. You take what the met tells you at 11pm and that’s it! I feel so deprived from when I was a kid and had to rely on what Nick Gregory said the models were doing at 10pm. Was like some drumroll until my hopes growing up on the south shore were dashed 90% of the time. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Would probably make us more sane not less with all these links to crap models and hallucinations. You take what the met tells you at 11pm and that’s it! I feel so deprived from when I was a kid and had to rely on what Nick Gregory said the models were doing at 10pm. Was like some drumroll until my hopes growing up on the south shore were dashed 90% of the time. 

I have fond memories of 1993-94 though even on the south shore.  That was one case where the mets were usually underdone on snowfall amounts.  I remember Mr G did amazingly well with his 10 PM updates on PIX11 because he always said it looked like we were going to get more snow than originally forecast-- AND WE DID!

[North and West]

Would probably make us more sane not less with all these links to crap models and hallucinations. You take what the met tells you at 11pm and that’s it! I feel so deprived from when I was a kid and had to rely on what Nick Gregory said the models were doing at 10pm. Was like some drumroll until my hopes growing up on the south shore were dashed 90% of the time. 

YOU TOOK IT AND YOU LIKED IT.




.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Periodic extreme forecast update...

The extreme forecast in question called for March 1-April 15 to have an average temperature of 5° below normal with 20" or more snow in New York City. The forecast always had very little chance of ever verifying.

At present, the temperature would need to average 7.5° below normal from March 14-April 15 (40.0° against the 1991-2020 normals). The last time a year had an average temperature of 40.0° or below from March 14-April 15 was in 1956. 13/16 cases with such temperatures occurred prior to 1900.

Through today, it is likely that NYC's snowfall since March 1st will remain stuck at 0.1". That means an additional 19.9" would be needed through April 15th to verify the forecast. Only a single year in NYC's climate record, which extends back to 1869, had 19.9" or more snow from March 14-April 15: 1956 with 23.7".

In sum, the initially steep hill required for the extreme forecast to verify is growing each day into an ever higher mountain.

 

1956 was amazing to get that much snow, they even beat out 1967 (which was colder).  Didn't 1956 have a big snowstorm in April, Don?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, North and West said:

.

for some reason this reminded me of Bohemian Rhapsody (the song)

 

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1956 was amazing to get that much snow, they even beat out 1967 (which was colder).  Didn't 1956 have a big snowstorm in April, Don?

 

March-April Measurable Snowfalls for NYC in 1956:

March 12-13: 1.6"
March 16-17: 6.7"
March 18-19: 11.6"
March 24: 1.2
April 8: 4.2"

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

March-April Measurable Snowfalls for NYC in 1956:

March 12-13: 1.6"
March 16-17: 6.7"
March 18-19: 11.6"
March 24: 1.2
April 8: 4.2"

Very similar to 2018 actually, that also had 4 storms in March and 1 in April I think?

1996 was similar, 3 4"+ snowstorms in March and 1 in April (for JFK)?

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I have fond memories of 1993-94 though even on the south shore.  That was one case where the mets were usually underdone on snowfall amounts.  I remember Mr G did amazingly well with his 10 PM updates on PIX11 because he always said it looked like we were going to get more snow than originally forecast-- AND WE DID!

Absolutely.  Best memories of that winter here (and there are plenty)

- Stuck in traffic in an 8" storm on a Tuesday (1994 so a rarity for anyone under 25 at the time), and on the radio talk about the next 8" storm headed here Friday, which of course it did.

- Snowpacked sidestreets the norm for about a two week stretch

- Ice storms which never flipped to rain

It's almost unfathomable now, especially the snowpacked sidestreets part.

Sorry, ventured down Memory Lane a bit there.