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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Anybody have a chart for the Dec. 2009 setup? Curious how that one overcame December climo (particularly given how warm even Niños tend to be warmer to start)

It had a pretty strong cold air mass and later half of December doesn't have as many Climo issues from the cities on north. There was a decent storm 2 weeks earlier that presented Climo issues for the cities while the suburbs did quite well. 2 weeks later in December pretty much eliminated Climo related problems. 

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Ji had one of his worst meltdowns. Others followed him over the cliff.

What are you thinking of the upcoming pattern switch? The later model trends only seem to be delaying the switch, which was expected to my knowledge, so are we roughly in the same spot or do you think anything has seriously changed for the forecast 12/20 onwards? 

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9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What are you thinking of the upcoming pattern switch? The later model trends only seem to be delaying the switch, which was expected to my knowledge, so are we roughly in the same spot or do you think anything has seriously changed for the forecast 12/20 onwards? 

Couple of thoughts:

1.) We've seen time and time again that NWP is too quick to switch patterns. For example, you see the pattern flipping around the 5th of the month, but it doesn't wind up changing until the 9th or 10th. I don't see that happening here. The reliable, long range modeling is showing a slow but steady progression to at least a marginally favorable pattern. 

2.) It's December, and it's La Nina. These are two hostile background environments for us. Folks need to realize this won't be a 2009-2010 December and be happy with what we get. 

3.) Climo say that 7% of winters here feature a White Christmas. I honestly believe that a bit of patience will yield us a higher than normal chance of a White Christmas this year. 

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1 minute ago, ldub23 said:

Nice bermuda high 70 for christmas? Jb may be wrong

I would be fine with that TBH.

Christmas 2015 is still very well remembered, we had our windows open and it was pouring down rain.

A repeat of Jan 2016 would be very welcome here.  Something locked on (by some) a week in advance and with every run it just got better.  And a storm where p-type was never a concern (for us anyway) it just snowed its ass off!

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5 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

I would be fine with that TBH.

Christmas 2015 is still very well remembered, we had our windows open and it was pouring down rain.

A repeat of Jan 2016 would be very welcome here.  Something locked on (by some) a week in advance and with every run it just got better.  And a storm where p-type was never a concern (for us anyway) it just snowed its ass off!

Hot on Christmas would be terrible. This place would be a dumpster fire.

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Euro is basically a hold for early Saturday. A bit weaker with the low and the cold push than 0z. Probably grassy accumulation for the N/W crew with maybe some white rain closer to the cities verbatim. 
 

There was a time that when the euro was locked in like this at D4-5 it was money, despite whatever other guidance. No longer…

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

1.) We've seen time and time again that NWP is too quick to switch patterns. For example, you see the pattern flipping around the 5th of the month, but it doesn't wind up changing until the 9th or 10th. I don't see that happening here. The reliable, long range modeling is showing a slow but steady progression to at least a marginally favorable pattern. 

Thanks for the response, I've been trying to learn more about the upper air part of meteorology and trying to figure out if the pattern will actually flip. It's nice to hear that you think the pattern will flip around the 10th. Is there any reason that models almost always switch patterns too quickly? If so why has it not been addressed? 

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19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hot on Christmas would be terrible. This place would be a dumpster fire.

It wouldn't be my preferred experience but in the past what came after was worth it.  Can't always have it either.
30F and heavy sleet with 55mph wind gusts would be worse!  I don't mind the wind but sleet is the devil.  Might as well be sailing and run into a reef! ;)

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro is basically a hold for early Saturday. A bit weaker with the low and the cold push than 0z. Probably grassy accumulation for the N/W crew with maybe some white rain closer to the cities verbatim. 
 

There was a time that when the euro was locked in like this at D4-5 it was money, despite whatever other guidance. No longer…

Interesting. So do you think the lock in period is down to 3-4 days now. and do you consider the EURO still the quickest to the dance.

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3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Thanks for the response, I've been trying to learn more about the upper air part of meteorology and trying to figure out if the pattern will actually flip. It's nice to hear that you think the pattern will flip around the 10th. Is there any reason that models almost always switch patterns too quickly? If so why has it not been addressed? 

The answer to that is complicated and above my knowledge level. When I was still a meteorology major I was smarter about those things, but in my old age those facts have leaked out of my brain. You're better off speaking with one of the mets on here. I know there's a NOAA HQ NWP guy on here that's pretty smart about those biases. Maybe it's @das that I'm thinking of?

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The answer to that is complicated and above my knowledge level. When I was still a meteorology major I was smarter about those things, but in my old age those facts have leaked out of my brain. You're better off speaking with one of the mets on here. I know there's a NOAA HQ NWP guy on here that's pretty smart about those biases. Maybe it's @das that I'm thinking of?

@dtk

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4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Interesting. So do you think the lock in period is down to 3-4 days now. and do you consider the EURO still the quickest to the dance.

It varies on the season and situation of course, but inside of 72hrs should have the H5 and surface depiction quite close to the final truth. Statistics clearly say the euro is the best at this, but it definitely gets schooled by other guidance more often than in the olden days.

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10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It varies on the season and situation of course, but inside of 72hrs should have the H5 and surface depiction quite close to the final truth. Statistics clearly say the euro is the best at this, but it definitely gets schooled by other guidance more often than in the olden days.

Speaking of H5...Are there any sites with any guides on how to read that?

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Speaking of H5...Are there any sites with any guides on how to read that?

Sure thing:

NWS website on 500mb: https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/500mb#:~:text=For the 500 mb level,5%2C640 meters (18%2C503 feet)

University of Arizona: http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/spring17/atmo336s2/lectures/sec1/info500mb.html

PSU: https://learningweather.psu.edu/node/94

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21 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Interesting. So do you think the lock in period is down to 3-4 days now. and do you consider the EURO still the quickest to the dance.

It’s gonna take a decent shift south for us to see anything ground visible from the 9-10 deal…and even with that the cold is barely there. We wait.  

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2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

The delayed (but not denied) mechanism is Most Deadly at Exactly this time.  Once is starts it rarely stops.  When cold air delivery does arrive on time as projected in the 5-10 day then it tends to arrive as predicted on time and continues to do so.  If not, then not. 

We all need to do a little day drinking

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