Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Gefs is easter and colder at 6z than 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 No idea if the GFS is more correct, but historically when we have this HL set up its depiction is what should happen. A classic (and useful) block looks like this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Great morning run! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Ji said: Great morning run! Done whinging for a few hours now? 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Done whinging for a few hours now?Yep 3 nfl games today....and still in the game for Dec 23 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The way the coastal evolves on the 6z GEFS is literally as good as it gets in this set up. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: The way the coastal evolves on the 6z GEFS is literally as good as it gets in this set up. Would be a holiday gift if the GFS doesn't fold to the Euro like usually does. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: FSS take the whining to banter. This is why I changed my rules. Not because of others complaining though. Because it's a waste of my time and emotional energy getting involved in anything beyond d5 unless it's already stable across guidance. We don't have the technology capable of meeting expectations here. I figured a wound up storm would be problems all month even with blocking. NS wind-ups fight like the hulk to push north into anything. It's always like that and Dec climo lanes are not friendly here basically ever lol . 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 @Ralph Wiggum did you notice the tick towards the GFS on the 0z EURO at hr84? It has a hair more separation of the energy compared to 18z hr90, bit a less amped ridge nullified it.Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is why I changed my rules. Not because of others complaining though. Because it's a waste of my time and emotional energy getting involved in anything beyond d5 unless it's already stable across guidance. We don't have the technology capable of meeting expectations here. I figured a wound up storm would be problems all month even with blocking. NS wind-ups fight like the hulk to push north into anything. It's always like that and Dec climo lanes are not friendly here basically ever lol . That is very wise--I think I'm gonna do the same. Emotional investment is definitely not worth it at this range. Hey--at least if things were to fall apart inside of Day t ya only would've spent 4 days instead of like a week, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 6z Euro with subtle changes in our favor through hr48 Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Sandstorm94 said: 6z Euro with subtle changes in our favor through hr48 Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Keep going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That is very wise--I think I'm gonna do the same. Emotional investment is definitely not worth it at this range. Hey--at least if things were to fall apart inside of Day t ya only would've spent 4 days instead of like a week, lol The biggest recurring hot spot is any time a general pattern supports an east coast storm a week+ out, models will always spit out big solutions. Which are random just like the terrible solutions but get married instantly and become a benchmark. This is losing the game before ever rolling the dice or drawing your first card. Lol Eta: big storms are rarely long tracked in the east no matter what. Southern stream waves are the only thing that move slow enough and predictable enough to model well 120hrs+ out. Southern stream doesn't buckle and rip like the northern stream in winter. NS is a much stronger and faster force on winter wx and it's crazy volatile at mid/long leads. Many "sub classic but still big storms" surprise people regularly even at d4 or 3. Go back and read the Dec 2009 storm thread. Wild crazy tracking until the bitter end and that was a classic Nino giant block southern stream influenced wave. Lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The complications in the evolution of this event are related to the highly amplified nature of the pattern- mostly the massive EPO ridge in conjunction with the NAO ridge. Some of this at the infancy stage has been discussed, but it is interesting to see the differences later in the process. There are 2 anticyclonic wave breaks that bridge the 2 ridges and influence the TPV that is 'squeezed' out underneath. Throw in the deep Aleutian trough and amplifying PNA ridge.. Notice the TPV being absorbed into the Aleutian trough, and the character of the PNA ridge as it bridges with the NAO ridge on the GEFS. The trough that is our storm is being influenced by the NAO ridge and the vortex underneath. Favorable for the desired outcome. Look at the EURO ens(CMC similar). PNA ridge bridge with the EPO, and the NW Canada TPV is interacting with the trough(the storm) downstream; the vortex/lower heights under the NAO ridge are largely absent, and the NAO ridge connects to the amped ridge ahead of the trough. Not what we want. The deep trough rotates back north as there is little resistance. Needless to say these are pretty significant differences at the time the storm is developing. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 6z took a step in the right direction on the Euro OP. Notice the lobe over Canada is not as strong and is further north and west. The ridge is a tick weaker, but the axis shifted a hair east.Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Now let's look up top with the h5. The energy is more strung out with the leading edge further east, and the energy wave out west is not as amped. We shall see what the EPS has to say (since it goes out to hr144), but this is encouraging to see.Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 @Maestrobjwa I uploaded this after the Jan blizzard. Fantastic full continent satellite loop. Watch it like 5 times and keep staring at the orignin and track of the NS wave that kicked it all off. THAT is the kind of track we need (in general) to feel safe and it certainly can't include a big deep upper level low west of the MS river. There is a lot to resolve with the NS wave that may or may not snow in the east. Unlike Jan 2016, this one is very volatile. The atmosphere is going through a major shift at the same time the storm is pulling together. Jan 2016 had a locked pattern in advance. Patience always Eta: the depth of the trough and approach angle with NS waves cause massive differences in our potential outcome. To shallow of a dig and any good snow requires upper level support because there is no room for a swath of WAA in front. I hate this type of event. We're in the game for "tricky hard snow but could be big or bust" but "easy snow" is off the table. With NS waves, give me easy front end snow every time so I don't cry when the tough stuff skips... as usual... It's not looking great so far but next week could still bring easy snow without a bomb. 6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 @CAPE Great post and explanation on the differences that are causing both outcomes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Serious question there are some out there on the internet spiking the ball about how this storm isn't happening on the east coast...they could be right but is it wise to be so confident on a Saturday for a Thursday/Friday storm? I don't know seems risky and arrogant to me but hey...I predicted 70 degrees next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Serious question there are some out there on the internet spiking the ball about how this storm isn't happening on the east coast...they could be right but is it wise to be so confident on a Saturday for a Thursday/Friday storm? I don't know seems risky and arrogant to me but hey...I predicted 70 degrees next week After everything all of us have learned collectively in Weenie U, writing something off in a loaded pattern a week out is prob more emotional than logical. Big dog bubble bust effect. Lol. I'll bet a lot of the storm cancelers were the same honking the big dog alarm haha 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: After everything all of us have learned collectively in Weenie U, writing something off in a loaded pattern a week out is prob more emotional than logical. Big dog bubble bust effect. Lol. I'll bet a lot of the storm cancelers were the same honking the big dog alarm haha Yeah the same model they are bashing and saying is wrong is the same one they posted eyeball emojis a week ago honking the pattern. It's all about likes and being first I suppose. In my experience those guys are like CBs in the NFL they get burned 10 times then on one play the receiver drops the ball and they act like they did something. Short term memory loss is the key to success I guess 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Serious question there are some out there on the internet spiking the ball about how this storm isn't happening on the east coast...they could be right but is it wise to be so confident on a Saturday for a Thursday/Friday storm? I don't know seems risky and arrogant to me but hey...I predicted 70 degrees next week Like Eric, he could still be wrong. But, that means the WPC is wrong and the Euro. So, make your own assumptions. I would love the GFS be correct. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Yeah the same model they are bashing and saying is wrong is the same one they posted eyeball emojis a week ago honking the pattern. It's all about likes and being first I suppose. In my experience those guys are like CBs in the NFL they get burned 10 times then on one play the receiver drops the ball and they act like they did something. Short term memory loss is the key to success I guess I keep getting more modest and humble as I get older. I'm totally fine not knowing the answer and getting shit wrong. With anything really. I'm usually first to say I got it wrong when I make any long range call (I don't much anymore). I also know I'm far far dumber about wx than the most powerful wx supercomputers in the world. When they are at odds, I stand in the back of the room, get a drink (root beer), and watch the show 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Great morning run!Weren’t you just bridge jumping 3 comments ago? . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, frd said: Like Eric, he could still be wrong. But, that means the WPC is wrong and the Euro. So, make your own assumptions. I would love the GFS be correct. He explains his thoughts well but ultimately that is what they are...his thoughts...he can't possibly know with certainty what next Friday will do but hey if he's right he's king for a day if he's not...welp..oh well. Anyhow only 6 days until we all know. ETA he seems particularly upset today which is interesting because what he's complaining about is basically what he's doing in reverse. Weatherman are certainly a unique breed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The op gfs actually looks like a tick towards euro with the double barrel low look. Gefs appears to be the last hold out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Gotta get this within day 5. Waste of time until then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: He explains his thoughts well but ultimately that is what they are...his thoughts...he can't possibly know with certainty what next Friday will do but hey if he's right he's king for a day if he's not...welp..oh well. Anyhow only 6 days until we all know. ETA he seems particularly upset today which is interesting because what he's complaining about is basically what he's doing in reverse. Weatherman are certainly a unique breed. Saying the pattern isn't favorable is based on a model simulation, and if he chose to hug the GFS instead, well the pattern it's depicting is favorable. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Hope the GEFS is real. I would lock that up right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 EPS trended favorably Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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