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December 2022


dmillz25
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I believe the GFS was upgraded and put into op mode today, GFSV16.3.  Was supposed to go operational yesterday but held off until today due to the severe weather.  We'll see how it performs.  My expectations are low.  The upcoming high latitude blocking seems like a given at this point.  Model consistency across the board has been good and it has not been getting pushed out in time like last year.  What fruit it yields is yet to be determined.  Do not underestimate the possibility that it is just cold and dry with perhaps something as the block retrogrades and decays in the week or so before Christmas.  As mentioned in a prior post by jm1220.

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11 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I believe the GFS was upgraded and put into op mode today, GFSV16.3.  Was supposed to go operational yesterday but held off until today due to the severe weather.  We'll see how it performs.  My expectations are low.  The upcoming high latitude blocking seems like a given at this point.  Model consistency across the board has been good and it has not been getting pushed out in time like last year.  What fruit it yields is yet to be determined.  Do not underestimate the possibility that it is just cold and dry with perhaps something as the block retrogrades and decays in the week or so before Christmas.  As mentioned in a prior post by jm1220.

i'm thinking an offshore miss or two before the big dog

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3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

And like 00-01, 10-11 wasn't great sw of Philly. Boxing day was 50-100 miles from being a run of the mill 6" storm in NYC 

That’s what is going to happen in this setup if forecasted correctly. We don’t have a juiced up southern stream with loads of moisture 

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I can't think of any blocking pattern like that in the last 22 years that didn't produce anything

Often times it's a waiting game though like 2010

December 2000 came fairly close to a shutout though I think we had a cheap 1.5 inch snow event mid month which would have qualified as something 

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